Is Mo's 3:28 Huge in Your Suspicions of NOP Doping?

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

You had essentially a Tegenkamp level talent, slightly faster, 12:57/3:33.9, who all of a sudden, as he neared 30, became a 5 time World or Olympic gold medalist and a 3:28.8 1500m runner with a 26:4x 10k pr and an obvious shot at coming close to world records at 3, 5, and 10. Salazar says Farah hadn't done anything before. Okay. And he says he can be the greatest ever. Well, let's see him go after the world records now that the drug accusations are already there. Nothing to lose, right?

That's another good point. There's a similar age similarity between him and Tegenkamp as there is between him and Bekele. It makes one wonder if, had Tegenkamp somehow--disregarding whatever propensity he may have to be with Schumacher given his foundational time at Wisconsin--been under Salazar's tutelage and received the focus and attention, if Tegenkamp would have had big breakthroughs, too. I don't think that a Mo Farah breakthrough pushes suspicion over the edge--because Salazar's programme could easily explain large breakthroughs. But the EXTRAORDINARY degree and scope of his breakthrough should raise at least a tad bit of suspicion.

Another poster makes a good point about Lagat. Lagat running 7:29 and 12:53 at such an old age is phenomenal, and is very encouraging to athletes over their lifetimes. However, those numbers are not the norm, but strange exceptions.

Interestingly, at the age of 30, Hicham El Guerrouj, too, also ran a sensational 1500m time (3:27.x in that case) (during the Athens Olympic year). But Guerrouj is the all-time greatest of the 1500m, with crazy consistency in attaining fast 1500m times over his career--whatever you may think of that.

Eminem ran the 800 wrote:

Interestingly, at the age of 30, Hicham El Guerrouj, too, also ran a sensational 1500m time (3:27.x in that case) (during the Athens Olympic year). But Guerrouj is the all-time greatest of the 1500m, with crazy consistency in attaining fast 1500m times over his career--whatever you may think of that.

So at age 30, the greatest living 1500m ever runs another fast time in his main event which was run in an era where there was no test for the most powerful endurance PED ever created.

You want to argue about Nutrition? That's not the point on this thread, but I can respond to this.

At least, Solinsky, has been known to consume some quantity of cheese, and CHOCOLATE milk--not even the best practice of limiting your dairy to fat free skim milk, which by conventional notions would be the best thing to do (low fat, low GI sugar, protein).

But scientific studies have shown that Casein, the protein in dairy products, is a clear cancer promoter in Mice, at even small levels--and that, additionally, excessive levels of protein intake as a percentage of dietary calories promotes cancer and ill-health, too.

Do elite athletes follow this?

No.

Do all elite athletes consume copious amounts of fresh, raw vegetables and fruits, and also, sprouts? Do all elite athletes greatly limit the amount of animal flesh they consume? NO!

Both those practices have been shown to contribute greatly to great health and longevity all across the board, as corroborated by world populations who practice these nutritional lifestyles versus Western societies that do not.

Don't try to tell me that all of the Elite Distance runners practice the best nutrition, or, alternatively, because they achieve great "times," their nutrition is automatically the best it can be. It may be possible that training automatically approaches an asymptote of perfection as you reach the elite levels, but the same cannot be said for Nutrition.

No one is arguing nutrition. You are missing the point (again).

Read what I write below carefully:

No one runs 12:57 without having things (meaning training, nutrition, etc) together.

There was even a video posted of Mo and Galen eating Subway, drinking Fanta or something.

If you run one of the fastest times in an event you have things together. You know how to train. You know how to eat. You know how to race.

Can you guess one thing that you might not know how to do?

Subway and Fanta is pretty crappy nutrition--not as good as an elite athlete can be doing. I'm not saying Nutrition is the #1 factor in performance. But it would likely give them even greater training and performance gains.

I didn't say these athletes didn't have "things together."

I said that their nutrition could use improvement.

Don't care about about elite running anymore. Its all a sham.

Do you seriously think that Alberto Salazar is the only American coach that found the right training balance to improve dramatically top elite distance types 400 speed improvement while at the same time they are doing the training to get them to the next level in their primary events?

Back when Floyd Landis got nailed a writer for a magazine that was an avid cyclist got on a drug/training routine and wrote about. He blood doped, took EPO, and HGH.

I'd like to see something similar with a the thyroid medication. I'll do it.

I have a cat that's Hyperthyroid. That's pretty common with cats. She has to take medication to slow her metabolism dowm and maintain weight.

I guess hypothyroid problems are more common than I thought with people that are 130 pounds and run 80-120 miles a week.

TLW wrote:

No one is arguing nutrition. You are missing the point (again).

Read what I write below carefully:

No one runs 12:57 without having things (meaning training, nutrition, etc) together.

There was even a video posted of Mo and Galen eating Subway, drinking Fanta or something.

If you run one of the fastest times in an event you have things together. You know how to train. You know how to eat. You know how to race.

Can you guess one thing that you might not know how to do?

When I first posted the bit about nutrition, I prefaced it by saying it was semi tangential to the original topic. So I was not missing the "point" originally, and I can't be missing it "again" (unless you clarify what you mean).

I have read all that you have posted on this thread carefully, but you don't say much, so there is not much to interpret. What little you do say, specifically your statements about Athletes "having it together" you provide no support for. Your only logic is that, by definition, they must somehow be doing things right.

The one time you do provide support is totally ridiculous--you say the athletes know what they are doing when it comes to eating, and then you bring up the example of Mo Farah and Galen Rupp drinking Fanta!

I think you are the one who doesn't know ["how to think"--which is what you are insultingly implying that I am unable to do.]

You also missed the point of my Hicham El Guerrouj post.

You notice how I used the transition "But" in that post? And I ended with "whatever you may make" (of the factoid?). Then you quote my post and explicitly emphasize what I was clearly insinuating--as If I was not insinuating it.

Please be a little more respectful and civil. With added civility and a little more elaboration and erudition in your posts, I can respond adequately.

Well, in 2009 at the age of 26, Mo Farah ran what had been until this year his lifetime pb at 1500m. This 2009 race, much like this year's, was in Monaco and Mo ran a 3:33.98, which appears to have bettered his previous best by over 4 seconds (a 3:38.02 from 2006). This 3:33.98 currently stands as tied for the 1343rd fastest performance at 1500m.

Now, at age 30, Mo Farah runs a 3:28.81, a performance which is more than 5 seconds faster than his 2009 performance, and it is the 26th fastest 1500m ever, and this makes him the 6th fastest 1500m performer ever.

This makes Mo faster at 1500m than Cacho, Baala, legendary Daniel Komen, doper Ramzi, Niyongabo, Kiplagat, Chirchir, likely doper Aouita, Choge, Ndiku, doper Saudi-Sief, doper Laalou, Cram, Maree and Coe. This is, in a word, astonishing, and it would be astonishing even if the 1500m were his main event...

Eminem ran the 800 wrote:

Please be a little more respectful and civil. With added civility and a little more elaboration and erudition in your posts, I can respond adequately.

You are right. I apologize.

To be clear on the Subway though, my point is that nutrition is taken seriously, but not all that seriously. Salazar isn't reinventing things nutrition wise from that observation.

To be more clear on my points, if they were unclear:

Mo knows what to do - he ran 12:57, a top 15-20 (?) all time performance.

To run 12:57, you take things seriously and do things right. You have the focus, talent and training.

Mo was on the level of Teg/Solinsky - elite but not champions/getting dropped hard on the last lap.

To make the change from elite to not only unstoppable in Championship events but to also running an insane time in the 1500 at age 30, making an all time list near all time performers from an era where EPO was undetectable is mind boggling.

I hope that clears up some of my views.

A Rose By Any Other wrote:

Well, in 2009 at the age of 26, Mo Farah ran what had been until this year his lifetime pb at 1500m. This 2009 race, much like this year's, was in Monaco and Mo ran a 3:33.98, which appears to have bettered his previous best by over 4 seconds (a 3:38.02 from 2006). This 3:33.98 currently stands as tied for the 1343rd fastest performance at 1500m.

Now, at age 30, Mo Farah runs a 3:28.81, a performance which is more than 5 seconds faster than his 2009 performance, and it is the 26th fastest 1500m ever, and this makes him the 6th fastest 1500m performer ever.

This makes Mo faster at 1500m than Cacho, Baala, legendary Daniel Komen, doper Ramzi, Niyongabo, Kiplagat, Chirchir, likely doper Aouita, Choge, Ndiku, doper Saudi-Sief, doper Laalou, Cram, Maree and Coe. This is, in a word, astonishing, and it would be astonishing even if the 1500m were his main event...

That about sums it all up right there. If that's not enough to be suspicious then I don't know what is. This is Armstrong all over again. It's so blatant yet no one wants to believe it.

How many other 5K/10K guys at age 30 have dropped down to the 1500 and run equivalent times?

A Rose By Any Other wrote:

I ask because I am of two minds on this. One is that without the 3:28, his transformation to world beater in his late 20s is an aberration which would trigger some questions. However, it seems as if the 3:28 really was the nail in the coffin, so to speak, for many on this topic.

Of course, Augustine Choge's personal bests are similar to Mo Farah's, even though he did these as an ostensibly younger athlete, and Choge is not piling up World and Olympic gold medals as if it were almost the errand of a fool to bet on the field. Choge also had a more typical progression and has not really contested 10,000m to permit a read on his range above 5000m. It just seems that the 1500m really was a turning point for some. Thoughts?

Zero. The closest comparison is probably Said Aouita, but he didn't drop down at 30. He did however drop down to 800 meters in 1988 and run 1:43. His 1500m was 3:29.

What do you think Mo could run for 800 meters?

One more way to look at it, on the other side of the coin:

Mo is now about two seconds faster than Andy Wheating - TWO seconds . . . not that much, really. Is it that far-fetched to believe the best in the world at 5000/10000 (with a blazing finish) could be just a couple seconds faster than Andy Wheating at 1500?

And in response to a lot of those guys who are legends (and that he has passed), some of them would likely have run faster if they got the chance to be in the Monaco race Farah ran. I'd bet the best Farah would have done in a mid-80's race (against that competition, with those track surfaces/spikes) would be 3:30.0-5. Still good, but just not up to what he did. Basically, he had the opportunity to run fast, used it to the best of his ability, and now is being crucified for following through on his potential.

Also, as far as the 30 years old thing - how many Africans do we suspect of being nearly 30 anyway (when they say they are 22-24)? So if they can use that to their advantage and succeed when they are around 30, why can't Mo? It is certainly a (self-imposed) disadvantage of the American mindset that if you are not a stud by the time you are 22, you will never be one. That is a load of crap, and in my mind, one of the top 5 reasons Americans don't have the same type of success as they could (connected to the fact that, financially at least, very few of our talents see a reason to continue after the age of 22).

Full disclosure: I trained with Mo for a little while, before his NOP days (not so much running with him, I guess, but more hanging out with him - couldn't match his speed). I know the topic of doping came up in discussions over dinner, and heard what he had to say about it. I can't speak with any in-depth knowledge of anything in the Salazar camp (as he joined Nike shortly after I knew him), but his progress has seemed entirely reasonable to me.

Africans don't lie about their age to have more success... they simply don't know how old they are a lot of times. I've never suspected a 22 year old kenyan of being 30.

Its the improvement curve later in his career at a short event that is so shocking. Its not impossible, but it is suspicious.

As for the Wheating question, its really pointless. Wheating is a middle distance specialist, who ran that time early in his career. Its only because he has had an off couple of years and is American that this seems convincing at all. You could have pulled any number of flash in the pan 1500 meter runners for that question.

Well first of all two seconds faster than a 3:30 is very fast. Wheating was very fast, so yeah that's a big deal. Secondly, HE IS NOT A 1500m RUNNER AND NEVER HAS BEEN. AT AGE 30 A 5/10K SPECIALIST JUST RAN THE 6th FASTEST 1500m OF ALL TIME. In addition, he has never shown any indication early on in his career that he would be this fast. Look at the fastest 1500-10000m runners and look how they ran as juniors and you will see that they ran times that would indicate that they would be great. What did Mo run a 1:48 800m at age 20? Are you kidding me? That in no way says that he could run a 3:28 10 years later. Mo was never a stud. He was decent and then became good like Teg and Solinsky and then he became unbeatable. It stinks to me and that he's in bed with Salazar and Nike makes it stink even more.

The way people analyze this or related athletes seems the same way people analyze the stock market. Most ideas are based on personal bias and the like, searching for some mean innings in the " head and shoulder" patterns that exist. They draw lines and conclude with certitude that such and such is the truth when in fact it's all just faces in the clouds.

At the end of the day conclusions must be based on solid evidence as per tests and the like. To assume that someone is a cheat based on performance alone is committing a logical fallacy, namely " affirming the consequent". Look it up.

I say, enjoy your sport and don't get lost in synicysm. There is just too much greatness to let that go by to mere illusions of certainty. Till the day comes when we have sufficient evidence, I say keep your hopes up, your outlook positive and make good by thinking well. It ends up serving everyone's interest as well as the individuals interest.

of course wrote:What do you think Mo could run for 800 meters?

high-1'45

runthecountry wrote:I'd bet the best Farah would have done in a mid-80's race (against that competition, with those track surfaces/spikes) would be 3:30.0-5. Still good, but just not up to what he did

i doubt it

iaaf have had rules to keep track speed the same since '80s

it's their "energy return" rule

this modern "new fast track" is pretty much hogwash

elite running shoes were light back then to - you are talking ounces difference to today at most, if any

i'd bet mo woud have run virtually exactly the same 3'28 back in '80s

mcflounder wrote:How many other 5K/10K guys at age 30 have dropped down to the 1500 and run equivalent times?

they just don't enter 1500s but if they had...

chebbii i always reckoned was good for 3'28 when he was crushing geb/kennster in mid-'03

now looking at it, he probably was good for 3'27 as mo's kick is good but not chebbii level

( line of fit i get for him is

~ 49.0/12'45 ->3'27.69

he was running close to 12'50 whupping geb/kennster with 53 finishes - that had to be ~ 12'45 flat-out )

that 12'46-geb in '12 i thought was good for 3'29/3'30 that day - i'd go with 3'28/3'29 now

hagos probably about 3'30

isiah looked good in moscow - i think he wouda been good for 3'29/3'30

kemboi in his 26'30 probably about 3'31

eliud at his peak probably about 3'31

cherono probably 3'30/3'31

as a contrast, tergat in 26'27wr woud only have been good for about 3'35/3'36

mo's 3'28 is only really remarkable because he is a 5k/10k guy that actually had the fortune to get into a fast 1500 & was forced to hammer it from the gun

the only elite 5k guys of recent times who tried 1500s were cherono & eliud who ended up with 3'33s from waiting to the bell & trying to kick with specialist 1500 guys where they were always going to get whupped

these guys have to use their strength & gun-it from the shot

mo was forced to in monaco

maybe now we will finally see some other 5k or even 10k guys try the occasional elite field 1500...