Men's 10,000 - Rupp will have to PB to medal

Not sure why you under-estimate Rupp under the race circumstances you highlighted? He has equal credentials so far this year, with his 3:50, 7:30, 3:52 and 13;05 of which the latter was probably during middle of heavy training.

The faster the race pace the better Rupp's chances for a medal. He stated he is in equal or better condition than he was vs. OG 10K preparation. Also, keep in mind he trains with Farah and once rested and tapered is probably not too far behind him vs. overall strength/speed fitness.

Rupp for a medal - you heard it here first!

Bekele Fan wrote:

Not sure why you under-estimate Rupp under the race circumstances you highlighted? He has equal credentials so far this year, with his 3:50, 7:30, 3:52 and 13;05 of which the latter was probably during middle of heavy training.

Re Rupp's 13:05: don't forget that the first 2k was close to world record pace...so Rupp was on pr pace (he went through 1600m in 4:04-05...so he was on 12:4x-low pace) for a while and just died a bit while running in no-man's land. I think Rupp has a great shot at bronze. AlSal has said that Rupp has better speed than Mo, so maybe he'll get himself in position and be able to use it this time.

Bekele Fan wrote:

Not sure why you under-estimate Rupp under the race circumstances you highlighted? He has equal credentials so far this year, with his 3:50, 7:30, 3:52 and 13;05 of which the latter was probably during middle of heavy training.

The faster the race pace the better Rupp's chances for a medal. He stated he is in equal or better condition than he was vs. OG 10K preparation. Also, keep in mind he trains with Farah and once rested and tapered is probably not too far behind him vs. overall strength/speed fitness.

Rupp for a medal - you heard it here first!

Not sure I heard it here first... pretty well acknowledged opinion.

Not 'eva gonna happen wrote:

Bekele Fan wrote: Salazar will have him ready, and I predict a high 26:30's for Rupp and another silver medal.

Sorry, but Rupp has no credentials for running leaders running at 26:30 pace. Rupp will sit back as usual, hiding behind mid-pack runners and letting them do work Rupp doesn't want to. Rupp will hope the leaders are within some range--3-5 seconds--so he can launch his patented kick with the leaders coming back to him.

I predict 6-8th place for Rupp, with a time in the high 26:50s, or low 27:00s.

That's about what I expect. Rupp hasn't run particularly well this year. Ok, but not great. I really don't seem him medaling at the WC this year unless he runs far above what he has so far.

The forecast for race time calls for 75-76--hard conditions for trying to run sub 26:50. However, given that temperature, a steady 13:30 pace will separate the men from the boys and it will be more than fast enough for anything to be in the cards.

Whatever you think of Salazar, he seems to be able to get his athletes to peak at the right time and come into races extremely fit without being over trained. The Kenyans will be fit I am not sure that the Kenyans will not come into this race over-trained and tired. They may be pushed too hard in training without enough rest and not have anything for the race itself. This is my prediction. They may take it out fast but the athlete with the best peak and sufficient rest will win.

the question is really does anyone want to run for gold, or rather silver?

rupp is not at the top of his game right now and probably can't challenge with a crazy push from a long way out. if anything, if he is in the game with 800m to go, he'll not wait for moe to get a step on him....

there is no evidence that the kenyans have their act together. so i'd be surprised if they mount a serious challenge, perhaps a push in the mid stages with 60-62 second lap surges. then back to 66-68 sec.

the ethopians however do have some sense about them and might chime in together with a 2 km surge in the late middle, then see if they can kick with a tired moe.

got to pick moe and two ethopians, but rupp really is the wild card. if he goes from his recent b game back to his a game, then it is silver again..

reed wrote:

almost a certainty? let's look at some past years

2012 London Olympics, 27:30 farah

2011 WC Daegu 27:13 jeilan

2009 WC Berlin 26:46 bekele

2008 Beijing Olympics 27:01 bekele

2007 WC Osaka 27:05 bekele

2005 WC Helsinki 27:08 bekele

2004 Athens Olympics 27:05 bekele

2003 WC Paris 26:49 bekele

2001 WC Edmonton 27:53 kamathi

2000 Sydney Olympics 27:18 gebrselassie

1999 WC Seville 27:57 gebrselassie

i have this race going 28 min pace down to 26 low pace, maybe two 800m surges and one 2k surge and a mad last 600m.

i suppose that brings in a result somewhere in the middle. like 27 low plus or minus. ok, how about 27.05 fitting in well with history.

It could be fast, but every time we expect a race to be fast it isn't. It is very difficult to get group fast pro athletes to run fast when the when the only incentive is to win a medal. No one is going to run fast just for the sake of running fast, they will only do it if they think it helps their chances. You have about 5 athletes who think they can win gold and about a dozen athletes who think they can win a medal and it's difficult to give that up on a gamble. Unless you are far and away the best athlete in the field, if you front run, you basically become a rabbit. It is a lot more relaxing physically and mentally to just tuck in behind someone. Besides the possibilities of blowing up, the other disincentives to running fast is that a lot of athletes are doubling and it's probably not going be ideal temps of a 10K.

Personally, I don't think a fast or slow race will affect Mo or Galen per se. Perhaps if it's a 26:4x pace if might affect Galen, but a 26:5x probably won't. I expect the race to be fast by Championship standards, probably somewhere just under 27 minutes. Also, I expect Galen to do well for the simple fact that from what I gather, his training and schedule more so this year than previous, has been pointing to just the WCs. He was expected to run fast in that 5K and the mile a couple of weeks ago and in the 5K he go in got in over his head pace wise and his 3:52 mile was actually quite good for a 10K/5K specialist.

Bekele Fan wrote:

It is almost a certainty that the Kenyans will be taking this race out fast from the gun - expect a sub 26:50 with grinding/fast last 3 to 4 laps. If Rupp wants a medal in this one he will likely need a PB to do it.

Salazar will have him ready, and I predict a high 26:30's for Rupp and another silver medal.

You do drugs, Danny??

This is nonsense. As the second-poster Reed has shown, it is a very rare thing indeed for any world championship 10ks to go under 27 minutes--2009 was an anomaly when, if I recall, Tadese hammered it like crazy, and Bekele and Tadese pushed into crazy territory (relative to world championships). I think, also, the only reason, like Reed said, that world championship 10ks were every close to 27 flat owed directly or indirectly to the presence of the 5k/10k/long distance GOAT in the race--a strong Bekele.

And I think that before Bekele and Haile arrived on the scene, such fast 10k track championship performances were totally unheard of.

While there is a good chance Gebremeskel, in a very well-paced race, has a PB in him of sub 26:50, nothing close to that is going to happen in a non-paced championship race.

The original poster's suggestion is way over exaggerated, although I agree with the general idea: There might be a possibility that the Ethiopians and Kenyans together will push the pace the whole race toward low 27 minute territory, maybe ~27:10. Absolutely no way, in my opinion, will the final winning time be 27 flat or under.

In that case, Rupp's chances will still be in question--he will need to have the fitness and the motivation to summon 27 flat and sub 27 strength, just to be in contention. And then he will need to be able to finish hard, perhaps in a progressive kick from 400m-100m, perhaps in a 1200-1600m last grind. Rupp is a phenomenal athlete as his 10k PB and Olympics silver medal prove, and has incredible potential as his middle-distance achievements indicate--but that doesn't mean he will perform come this weekend.

I also think things are still uncertain enough to be interesting as far as Mo Farah is concerned. I'll definitely be tuning in for the entire race. If this possibility is realized and the pace is pushed honestly the whole way, with the added possibility of a last grind and/or final kick, Mo Farah will have to rise to the occasion and summon his truest best colors and performance. That will be riveting, and it could be a beautiful thing. I hope to see the Ethiopians and Kenyans pushing it, and Mo Farah, Gebremeskel, Abera Kuma, and Rupp all in contention. Jeilan and Merga could be there, too--all those athletes have incredible talent and ability, but whether we see them rise to the occasion and display it--which would make for maybe one of the most exciting 10k championship races ever--is another question.

Dr. Know wrote:

Peter Andersson wrote:

The weather in Moscow in August can be anything from a steaming hot 35°C to a windy/rainy 10°C - a WR equivivalent EFFORT taken through successfylly under circumstances can still land at 27:30 for time depending on that...

It seems English is not your first language, and that's cool.

I think you're saying the weather is going to be so bad, that if they run 27:30 it will be like a 26:17 equivalent.

I'm saying it will be an unevenly paced race, and that will have more affect on slowing the final time, than the weather.

I bet you spent half an hour writing that!

just noticed that rupps pb is faster than every championship 10k in history except one, and he's 2 seconds shy of that by bekele.

now rupp is on his B game running 352 miles.

run fans need to understand how good this guy's A game is right now. his best 1500 won't be too much slower than moe.

neither is his 10k.

still we'll likely see a B+ rupp finish just outside the medals. an A+ rupp would medal in both 5 and 10k.

Not 'eva gonna happen wrote:

Sorry, but Rupp has no credentials for running leaders running at 26:30 pace. Rupp will sit back as usual, hiding behind mid-pack runners and letting them do work Rupp doesn't want to. Rupp will hope the leaders are within some range--3-5 seconds--so he can launch his patented kick with the leaders coming back to him.

I predict 6-8th place for Rupp, with a time in the high 26:50s, or low 27:00s.

Great post.

ryan foreman wrote:

The Kenyans have been saying that they will take a race out fast for over 5 years. It never happens.

Correct.

We've heard this talk before.

But nobody ever takes it, or they do for just 1-2km then sag, let the kickers catch up at an even pace and with an even bigger advantage. National team coaching in Kenya must be a total joke.

longjack wrote:

just noticed that rupps pb is faster than every championship 10k in history except one, and he's 2 seconds shy of that by bekele.

now rupp is on his B game running 352 miles.

run fans need to understand how good this guy's A game is right now. his best 1500 won't be too much slower than moe.

neither is his 10k.

still we'll likely see a B+ rupp finish just outside the medals. an A+ rupp would medal in both 5 and 10k.

Ventolin, it is obvious that you are "longjack" and "someone had to do it," and you have always rated Rupp too highly. 12:45 anyone? What a joke.

ladysman wrote:

longjack wrote:

just noticed that rupps pb is faster than every championship 10k in history except one, and he's 2 seconds shy of that by bekele.

now rupp is on his B game running 352 miles.

run fans need to understand how good this guy's A game is right now. his best 1500 won't be too much slower than moe.

neither is his 10k.

still we'll likely see a B+ rupp finish just outside the medals. an A+ rupp would medal in both 5 and 10k.

Ventolin, it is obvious that you are "longjack" and "someone had to do it," and you have always rated Rupp too highly. 12:45 anyone? What a joke.

Go toss a salad.

GFWhy wrote:

ladysman wrote:

Ventolin, it is obvious that you are "longjack" and "someone had to do it," and you have always rated Rupp too highly. 12:45 anyone? What a joke.

Go toss a salad.

"A Duck," you sure are busy tonight.

ladysman wrote:

longjack wrote:

just noticed that rupps pb is faster than every championship 10k in history except one, and he's 2 seconds shy of that by bekele.

now rupp is on his B game running 352 miles.

run fans need to understand how good this guy's A game is right now. his best 1500 won't be too much slower than moe.

neither is his 10k.

still we'll likely see a B+ rupp finish just outside the medals. an A+ rupp would medal in both 5 and 10k.

Ventolin, it is obvious that you are "longjack" and "someone had to do it," and you have always rated Rupp too highly. 12:45 anyone? What a joke.

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i like to answer this kind of post with, i ain't no mf'in #$%&&$$# vertolin idiot-moron, etc. etc. vert however rude, does his homework big-time and has spent a lot of time tweaking his calculator. he's figured out some pretty interesting results, such as moe's 1500.

myself, i use predictors like, this guy can run the 400m as fast as john walker and also runs cross country well without too much training. this means this guy is a candidate to be a world class miler. and a 145 800m time is in the cards, after that you're looking at a 350 mile...

and then there is the handicap system from horse racing where you calibrate the track, fast, slow, look at each guy and how they ran the race, if they were sick, if they were likely training through the race of sharpening. you throw it all into the mix. i did a lot of this. charts, systems, calculations.

when it all said and done, vert has a decent system that delivers the goods. however vert must be insane. it's pretty obvious. what can you do?