I might add that Salazar has been astute in recognizing that WC and Olympic finals are NOT time trials. Does anybody think Alberto Cova was the fastest time trialer in the championship races he won? He didn't need to be.
I might add that Salazar has been astute in recognizing that WC and Olympic finals are NOT time trials. Does anybody think Alberto Cova was the fastest time trialer in the championship races he won? He didn't need to be.
Guys, remember that SPMBLNPF is, without a doubt in my mind, Andrew Bumbalough. He may have an obsessive feud with Galen Rupp dating back to probably before the 5000m Olympic Trials prelim, he may be jealous of the accomplishments of Rupp and the other Salazar boys, but his analysis is very sound and he is informed on the training of Rupp and the general science of the sport.
Feel free to be more optimistic about Rupp if you wish, but if you read the posts with the fact that he is (obviously) Andrew Bumbalough in mind, you will be more open to the views and realize his objective viewpoints are valid.
SPMBLNPF wrote:
The 3:50.92 has been used as some sort of indicator by the naive that Galen can run a stupendous 5000m.
Yet, it remains clear that in Monaco Galen will be toeing the line unable to run faster than 3:34 for 1500m. What does this mean? It means that Galen is a runner who is currently capable of running 3:34 and 26:55. Plug those into your machine if you want, or think for yourself, and you will see what Galen is capable of in a 5000m.
I respect your argument here, but I think you're disrespecting Rupp's continued improvements with leg speed and finishing (ability to hang) as the years progress. You can throw darts as to which side of the 1500 10k spectrum his training falls into right now, but I feel he has proven himself to be able to perform beyond [letsrun's low] expectations.
Salazar knows what he's creating and I think the 3:50 is relevant to show that when Galen is on, he has the wheels and the stamina to hang with lead in a 5k.
killarney wrote:As for the 10K, ask Renato Canova and he'll probably tell you a 26:48 isn't really better than a 12:55. Somewhere he said that most 13:10 guys could break 27:00 with enough focus on the event, but since quality 10Ks are rare, we are more impressed by them.
If that's true, than a 10K guy with 12:55 5K should be approaching 26:30. And if you look at this list, lots of the guys between 26:30 and Rupp's 26:48 have 5K PR's well north of 12:55
canova is wrong
he often flip-flops in his predictions about his or athletes he knows
e g he states cherono, when in peak flat shape in '03 when whupping hicham in 12'48 was capable of 7'23 that day
that is exactly what i woud have expect from calaculator
then he posts nonsense about 27-flat or better guys with 13'10+ pbs ( perhaps same year or not ) & takes those 5k pbs as gospel of their talent
( please remember, his own cherono had a 13'11pb before that epic ostrava race !!! )
anyone who follows the sport knows that 27'00 off only 13'10 is nonsense
let me give you probably the best example
the best "aerobic machine" i have probably ever seen on the track was yobes
the man was a complete 1-paced plodder with no elite speed whatsoever but coud just hammer the same fast speed - a complete & total endurance machine
if anyone was ever going to run a fast 10k off a genuine intrinsic slow 5k, it was going to be him
his pbs set 2y apart were 13'01/26'58
yes, they were 2y apart but i have little doubt he was in similar shape both years ( his 13'01 in zurich beat 2nd place skah by 18s !!! )
you will not realistically ever find a better 5k/10k ratio than this if a guy is at his best for both 5k/10k simultaneously
if it's illustrative, the line of fit for ~ 13'10/27'00 is utterly nonsensical
57.4 / 1'58.0 -> 3'46.7 , 7'45.4 , 13'10.4 , 27'00.8
do you know any 13'10 guy who doesn't have bettter than something like 57+ speed ?!
As I've stated before, I don't consider your calculator authoritive. It's a good idea, a decent tool, but it has obvious inaccuracies.
I posted lots of nonsensical lines of fit, like Rudisha's 400/800 line which predicts him to run a 3:27 1500, but then you have some excuse about how the 1500 is too long to be predicted for an 800 runner. But if the 5K/10K line doesn't make sense for the 400, then we have to accept it as fact and change the original assumptions.
In addition, I doubt there is any solid, precise science behind this calculator, therefore I have come to the conclusion that there it is simply inaccurate.
killarney wrote:As I've stated before, I don't consider your calculator authoritive. It's a good idea, a decent tool, but it has obvious inaccuracies
offer them
I posted lots of nonsensical lines of fit
GIGO
like Rudisha's 400/800 line which predicts him to run a 3:27 1500, but then you have some excuse about how the 1500 is too long to be predicted for an 800 runner
eh ???
is that supposed to be a joke ???
he's never run more than a 800 race in his life & only trains for 800
the subject of his 1500 potential is of complete & absolute academic interest & only offered when someone asked the question as a semi-serious topic response
perhaps you expect to find a calculator to predicts bolt's current 800 or even 1500 ability off his 100/200 ???
those 800/1500 estimates going to be meaningful, useful numbers to you ???
But if the 5K/10K line doesn't make sense for the 400, then we have to accept it as fact and change the original assumptions
no
you use commonsense
commonsense tells us that no 13'10pb guy in history of world has had only 57+ ability at the time
that indicates 57+ prediction is nonsense & therefore must be the 13'10 as accurate number for their intrinsic 5k ability
i'd like to know about a 13'10pb guy who had slower than 55 for a start
In addition, I doubt there is any solid, precise science behind this calculator
there is quoted science behind daniels calculator & iaaf tables but some of those predictions are laughable
therefore I have come to the conclusion that there it is simply inaccurate
like i said GIGO
if you don't use any commonsense when inputting & no serious thought about the athlete(s) under consideration you will get nowhere
SPMBLNPF wrote:
The 3:50.92 has been used as some sort of indicator by the naive that Galen can run a stupendous 5000m. This has never made sense to the intelligent.
THIS^
SPMBLNPF wrote:
People who don't think with rigor are doing the whole Ventolin thing....look what these two times suggest for 5000m.
Well, this is where the wheat is separated from the chaff in relation to intellectual horsepower.
First, what kind of 10,000m shape was Galen in when he ran 3:50.92i, a time which he will NEVER match outdoors, which is a topic for another thread. OK, I know enough about Galen to know that he was in close to 27:10 shape when he ran that indoor mile. Now, Galen is trying to train for the WC 10000m, and he is indeed working on his finishing speed. Yet, it remains clear that in Monaco Galen will be toeing the line unable to run faster than 3:34 for 1500m. What does this mean? It means that Galen is a runner who is currently capable of running 3:34 and 26:55. Plug those into your machine if you want, or think for yourself, and you will see what Galen is capable of in a 5000m. Galen is trying to do well in the WC 10,000m, which means he is honing his speed, but don't think
for a minute that Galen has improved his ability to time trial a 10,000m. NEVER assume that an athlete is simultaneously capable of running their personal bests at a range of distances.
FINALLY, someone who gets it. Rupp will top out as a 3:50 miler, a 12:55+ 5000 runner and a 26:4x 10,000 runner. Not much more to see here.
Vent, out of curiosity, what line (1500, 3000) DOES your calculator give for a 45.15 / 1:40.91 guy.
Given that his 400 was altitude, I might assume he falls off less than those two points would suggest. But then, it was early season so maybe 45.1 is the right number to use.
ventolin^3 wrote:
killarney wrote:As I've stated before, I don't consider your calculator authoritive. It's a good idea, a decent tool, but it has obvious inaccuraciesoffer them
After the 10K's at USA's, Ritz says the group sometimes finishes their workouts with a fast 400. Rupp does them in "50 seconds," Ritz in 53-54. We'll assume conservatively that that's a rolling start and Rupp could only run 51.0 in a fresh race from standing.
Let's just say Rupp is in 27:00 shape, also hopefully a conservative estimate. That gives a 1500 of 3:32.5 and a 3000 of 7:27, both ridiculous. I'd like to see a sensible line of fit for Rupp but I can't find one that matches even my conservative assumptions.
l
he's never run more than a 800 race in his life & only trains for 800
And John Cheruiyot Korir (13:09 / 26:52) and Bernard Kipyego (13:09 / 26:59) have never trained for or raced a 400 but you're trying to predict their ability...
commonsense tells us that no 13'10pb guy in history of world has had only 57+ ability at the time
that indicates 57+ prediction is nonsense
So why can't we just throw out the 57 prediction and ignore it like we threw out the 1500 prediction for Rudisha and pretended it didn't exist? Surely everyone else understands what i'm saying at this point.
& therefore must be the 13'10 as accurate number for their intrinsic 5k ability
Or the calculator is nonsense...
rupp-certified saladbar wrote:
Vent, out of curiosity, what line (1500, 3000) DOES your calculator give for a 45.15 / 1:40.91 guy.
I'll answer: 45.15, 1:40.92 gives 3:27.28, 7:34.39, 13:26, 29:05.
killarney wrote:
Surely everyone else understands what i'm saying at this point.
Yes. Oh, yes.
killarney wrote:And John Cheruiyot Korir (13:09 / 26:52) and Bernard Kipyego (13:09 / 26:59) have never trained for or raced a 400 but you're trying to predict their ability...
& neither have following run a 400 on the circuit,
kemboi, hassan, merga, mosop, korir, bett, kiprop, etc, but canova believes that a 400 ability exists for them
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4203011&page=2May be you don't agree, but facts are against your idea.
I want to give you some data (not opinions) about all my athletes able running under 27' :
Nicholas Kemboi (26'30"03) able to finish last 600m in Bruxelles 2003 in 1'23", almost beating Haile (26'29"87), could run in about 51"5
Ahmed Hassan (26'38" in the same race) NEVER could run faster than 53"5 / 54"
Imane Merga (26'48" this year) able to finish in 53"5 in 5000m last year, can run 400m near 51", not faster
Moses Mosop (26'49") finished last lap in WCh 2005 (bronze medal) faster than Kenenisa and Sileshi (53"4 for him, but was only 5th at the bell). He NEVER can run near 52"
John Korir (26'52") had a speed not better than 54"
Mark Bett (26'52") could run about 51"
Wilson Kiprop (last year winning Kenyan Champs in altitude in 27'26" and the African Champs in 27'32" woth last lap in 55"6, that could easy run under 27' at sea level) became the WCh of HM and NEVER could run under 53"
Now, after Cova, I can tell you that nor Antibo (European Champion of 5000 / 10000 in 1990, and silver medal in 10000 in OG 1988), very fast in the last lap, neither Panetta (27'24" and WCh of 3000 steeple in 1987) could run UNDER 52" (and Antibo was one of the fastest sprinters in the last lap).
When we speak about ladies, we remember last 400m of Defar and Dibaba in the IAAF final of some year ago (56"5 / 56"6). How much do you think was their potentiality in a 400m race ? Not better than 54"5.
Try to understand that a Dibaba able running 53" can easy run the WR of 1500m. Wang Jungxia ran 3'51"9 in 1500m and 2:24 in Marathon, and 8'06" in 3000, and 29'30" with the second half in 14'26", and NEVER could run 400m faster than 55"5 (this was what Dong Li, the WCh in 1500 in 1997, now wife of the head coach of Spain Miguel Landa, explained me when we spoke about the Chinese period of Ma Juren)
look for 57+ in that list...
So why can't we just throw out the 57 prediction and ignore it like we threw out the 1500 prediction for Rudisha and pretended it didn't exist? Surely everyone else understands what i'm saying at this point
because a 5k/10k guy can spend a season running 400 races if he so choses & an asymptote 400 time will emerge - 400m isn't going to kill 'em
as for rudy, if he spent a season running 1500s, he'd probably quit after about 2 attempts with possible dnf's - he may feel 1500 may kill him
Or the calculator is nonsense...
like i said, if you don't use some commonsense & do some research
look at above list & tell me how 57+ & 13'10 is viable
how much are you getting off on this?
26:48.00 10k + 3:50.92 mile indoors (solo) + 7:30.16 3k indoors = 12:55 ceiling @ 5k ???
Explain yourself. Explain everything. I think Rupp could very well outkick everyone (he could run 3:50 in Janurary by himself, he has the leg turnover). Yes, Rop, Alimerew, and Gebremeskel would lead the competition and be likely winners in this race, but you over-emphacize their impact and something it had no effect upon for the sake of attempting to diminish Rupp's and Lagat's abilities to run sub 13, as you are so dead-set on saying cannot and will not happen, at least for Lagat if not for Rupp. Your predictions sound safe at best, but you lose everyone's respect at not being able to present an argument in such a way that you would seem humble either way and willing to eat your own words. That is the silly troll move you made, troll.
Did that feel good? Is that how you like it? That's great.
canova's wang quote was used for illustration if you don't GIGO & put some thought in
Wang Jungxia ran 3'51"9 in 1500m and 2:24 in Marathon, and 8'06" in 3000, and 29'30" with the second half in 14'26", and NEVER could run 400m faster than 55"5 (this was what Dong Li, the WCh in 1500 in 1997, now wife of the head coach of Spain Miguel Landa, explained me when we spoke about the Chinese period of Ma Juren)
my reply coupla pages later
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4203011&page=4that's what was expected :
55.6 / 1'57.4 -> 3'50.7 , 5'14.0 , 8'04.6 , 13'56.2 , 29'09.9
or
55.5 / 1'57.3 -> 3'50.7 , 5'14.1 , 8'05.1 , 13'57.3 , 29'13.2
or
55.4 / 1'57.1 -> 3'50.3 , 5'13.6 , 8'04.2 , 13'56.0 , 29'10.7
( her 3'51.9 was a championship race with lot of uneveness & shouda been lot quicker )
perhaps the calculator for 400m predictions is only good for the greatest woman track distance runner of all time but disappointingly, only predicts her 400 ability to within 0.1s of that claimed by a known, generally well-informed & respected source...???
SPMBLNPF wrote:
Montesquieu wrote:Yes--it's unlikely the race will go under 13. This is not some deep truth. The weather will not be good. It's only three weeks out from Worlds (10000). DL 5s have been relatively slow this year. To claim, however, what someone's ceiling is, someone who has run 3:50 and 26:48, someone you've never seen train, someone whose workouts you know less than zero about, someone who's VO2 max you don't know, is nonsense. Amidst all of your blather is the simple arbitrary assertion--this is cold reality, he's not good at 5000, he never has been, don't tell me he can run faster than 12:55, blah, blah, blah. The only people who might have any sense at all about what he can do are people like Salazar and his training partners. You, sir, are a loudmouth, and you know nothing. So unless you can actually articulate some reasons, provide some evidence (you're all wrong is scarcely evidence), as to why Rupp's ceiling is 12:55 (stating it over and over again in diverse ways is not evidence), do us all a favor and keep your assertions to yourself. And as the the question of what I think Rupp's ceiling is in the 5, well, I don't know.
Thank you for offering nothing. I have seen Galen run more than you know. The 3:50 is a red herring. Can you not address the thread's topic, instead of expressing your dislike for me? Apparently the answer is no. You disgrace the name with the moniker you utilize.
The OP is proof that there is no god. Why would god make someone so inane? Only nature could fck up and do that. A god wouldn't fck up that bad.
pumo wrote:
you post on xoxo right?
I bet when he is not here he is on grindr.
ventolin^3 wrote:
kemboi, hassan, merga, mosop, korir, bett, kiprop, etc, but canova believes that a 400 ability exists for them
And he believes it not because of your calculator, but based on his own thinking, the same thinking that says a 27:00 / 13:10 combo is reasonable.
because a 5k/10k guy can spend a season running 400 races if he so choses & an asymptote 400 time will emerge - 400m isn't going to kill 'em
as for rudy, if he spent a season running 1500s, he'd probably quit after about 2 attempts with possible dnf's - he may feel 1500 may kill him
Doubt it - it's a 1500 not a marathon.
look at above list & tell me how 57+ & 13'10 is viable
It's not. Your calculator predicted that, not me. I believe 27:00 & 13:10 is viable, and I do not believe that implies 57 is their 400 ability. The reason I believe this is because I do not believe your calculator is accurate. I don't know how much more clear I can make that statement.
If you want some more inaccuracies of the caculator, try playing with Hall's 59:43 half-marathon, a time that was run on a rainy day on a hilly course, but we'll go with it. I'll humor you and say he was in 2:05 marathon shape even though it was worse. That predicts 50.5 for 400, 12:49 for 5000, 26:56 for 10,000, all wrong obviously. I don't see a reasonable line of fit for any half-marathon performer. And if your calculator is inaccurate at that distance than I see no reason to trust it for 5000-10000 or anything else really.
BTW - do you have a realistic line of fit for Rupples?
A Duck wrote:
The OP is proof that there is no god. Why would god make someone so inane? Only nature could fck up and do that. A god wouldn't fck up that bad.
Alberto, bear in mind that SPMBLNPF is Andrew Bumbalough as I mentioned at the top of the page. He's still bitter about last year.
irun wrote:
how much are you getting off on this?
26:48.00 10k + 3:50.92 mile indoors (solo) + 7:30.16 3k indoors = 12:55 ceiling @ 5k ???
Explain yourself. Explain everything.
He did. Go read.
Moron.
pumo wrote:
you post on xoxo right?
A Duck wrote:
I bet when he is not here he is on grindr.
A Dork, why do you always assume that people who disagree with you are homosexual?
What do you think that says about you.
Think hard and give this a serious answer. You will be glad you did.
Get help.