Ho Hum wrote:
Steady progression, no positive tests, no association with known dopers.
That's a perfect description of Haile Gebrselassie. He broke the 10,000m record 3 times.
Ho Hum wrote:
Steady progression, no positive tests, no association with known dopers.
That's a perfect description of Haile Gebrselassie. He broke the 10,000m record 3 times.
... and greater opportunity to not be tested at marathons.
mx443 wrote:
You're not mentioning the fact that over the last five years, marathons are way more popular for African athletes to compete in given the money. There is comparatively much less money to be gained from 10000m races. AND there are far fewer opportunities to run 10000m races every year. Ten and twenty years ago there were 2-4 meets a year that were known to feature high quality 10000s (like Brussels). That is no longer the case. The event has sadly devolved into a secondary event.
Ho Hum wrote:
Mr. Obvious wrote:Would they?
Yes.
Why would they?
Steady progression, no positive tests, no association with known dopers. Performance at OT in 2012 was consistent with a clean runner who'd run a long season.
OK,
I don't really trust those criteria as some sort of objective test nor do I trust Letsrunners ability and willingness to consistently apply them.
No one has gotten to within 150 meters of Bekele's record in 8 years.
what a wonderful world wrote:
No one has gotten to within 150 meters of Bekele's record in 8 years.
Untrue.
doo doo wrote:
mx443 wrote:You're not mentioning the fact that over the last five years, marathons are way more popular for African athletes to compete in given the money. There is comparatively much less money to be gained from 10000m races. AND there are far fewer opportunities to run 10000m races every year. Ten and twenty years ago there were 2-4 meets a year that were known to feature high quality 10000s (like Brussels). That is no longer the case. The event has sadly devolved into a secondary event.
In that case, look at the drop the marathon took in the same time period.
Also, generally these Kenyan marathoners, while fast, probably were not going under 26:17.
I think that plenty of the Kenyans could approach that number. Wanjiru went 26:41 as a junior. Mo farah who is widely considered unbeatable in the last few years has a 26:46 pr. Wanjiru did not concentrate on the 10,000m ever. In fact, I'm not sure if he ran many or any more after that one. 26:41 is a far cry from 26:17 but I was using Wanjiru as an example because he was young and not concentrating on that event and his time would beat anything anyone has run as of late. So yes, I believe that if all the best Kenyan road talent focused on track then the world record would be in reach. I'm not saying that Bekele and Geb weren't juiced, I'm just saying that the OP's theory leaves out a lot of other factors.
the east africans took off like rockets when they got epo
30-45 seconds boost over 10000m
now they slowing down again with better testing
Zat0pek wrote:
Looking at the entire historical context of the 10,000 WR progression ...
Interesting analysis and you make some reasonable points, but the signal-to-noise ratio would be better if you examined the top 20 or 50 performances by year, rather than just the rare occasions of WR performances. You can't conclude much from comparisons with sample sizes of 5 to 10.
barry mccockiner wrote:
Time was progressing prior to 1949. Shouldn't it have been harder to break the record then too?
You sir, are a moron.
Zat0pek wrote:
The last time the 10,000 WR was broken was in 2005, right after effective EPO testing went into widespread use.
I thought that the EPO test was used starting in 2000 and was fairly prevalent in the early 2000s at major competitions. Where did you get the information that widespread testing started in 2005? Or was did you make the conclusion of increased testing based on the absence of phenomenal times after 2005?
pv runner wrote:
Your analysis has a problem. If the progression was entirely or almost entirely PED-driven, then the people breaking the records world have come largely from many countries and mostly form the countries that had more and better access to PEDs (Western Europe and North America). But instead, with one exception, the WR breakers came entirely from two high-altitude African countries.
But of course to use PEDs, western athletes with money would have to be in the sport to begin with. With the African dominance of the 90s, I think it's highly likely that Western athletes chose not to compete in long distance events or even athletics in general and instead played soccer.
Africans go into running to make money. In the West, people have other options. They don't HAVE TO go into running to make money. If I were a talented teenage runner and had the choice of either trying to beat the top Africans in the '90s to make a living as a professional or going to college I would almost certainly do the latter. In other words, the African dominance discouraged white people from participating. The EPO era was kind of the nadir of American distance running, if you remember. People knew they couldn't compete with the top Africans internationally so they basically were content with being top American. Only exception was Bob Kennedy, who, like Regina Jacobs mysteriously dropped out of the 2000 Olympics after EPO testing was announced.
As in sprinting, you just don't see too many white people taking up the sprints to begin with just because of African dominance there.
1949 - 1956
- The economic recovery from WWII and end of food rationing in Europe (e.g. 1948 in the UK)
1960 - 1965
- All-weather surfaces replacing cinder tracks
1993 - 2005
- The emergence of the Africans
Viren, or his reinjected high altitude blood as in 27:20 shape???
coach d. wrote:
Viren probably could have run significantly faster than his PB of 27;38.
He is on record as saying he was in 27;20 shape in Munich.
Ho Hum wrote:On the other hand, Solinsky destroyed 27:07 and hasn't even made a US Olympic team, let alone medaled. Or take Derrick for example; most would agree that he's clean, and he ran faster as a college senior than Viren ever did. These performances both came in the EPO testing era. I think the 10000m WR was very weak leading into the '90s, which set up what looks like an incredible drop.
Also, the 10000m as an event has been disappearing from Diamond League meets, which makes it much more difficult to run a fast time. I'm not saying that EPO didn't have an effect, but much of that record drop should've come regardless of whether guys were clean.
sjq wrote:
pv runner wrote:Your analysis has a problem. If the progression was entirely or almost entirely PED-driven, then the people breaking the records world have come largely from many countries and mostly form the countries that had more and better access to PEDs (Western Europe and North America). But instead, with one exception, the WR breakers came entirely from two high-altitude African countries. So Kenya and Ethiopia had the only guys doing EPO?
Excellent points. But you could also say that those two countries contain many athletes who are already at a genetic and geographical advantage compared to others in the world. Thus, EPO--even if taken by "everyone" in the world--still gives them the boost that will help them run the fastest. These guys are obviously talented, but PEDs may be what gives them the extra boost. Kinda like Barry Bonds. Dude was ridiculously talented. 'Roids helped him enhance his amazing talent even more, making him stand out amongst hundreds of guys who are also very talented.
Why is it then, that almost the only athletes getting caught are American sprinters (and a number of Russians and Turks)? The most scientifically advanced country in the world can´t do someting that poor third world countrys get away with.
Please don´t give me that "political correctness" crap. International sports federations don´t give a f*ck about political correctness - all they care about is money. Why would they bust the most marketable T&F athletes, the sprinters, and leave the athles from a sport (long distance running) that nobody cares about, alone?
Blowing Rock.Master wrote:
That's a perfect description of Haile Gebrselassie. He broke the 10,000m record 3 times.
I agree. My point was just to show how far running has progressed, when a very good NCAA runner (with no championships) is faster than Lasse Viren.
Ho Hum wrote:
On the other hand, Solinsky destroyed 27:07 and hasn't even made a US Olympic team, let alone medaled. Or take Derrick for example; most would agree that he's clean, and he ran faster as a college senior than Viren ever did. These performances both came in the EPO testing era. I think the 10000m WR was very weak leading into the '90s, which set up what looks like an incredible drop.
Also, the 10000m as an event has been disappearing from Diamond League meets, which makes it much more difficult to run a fast time. I'm not saying that EPO didn't have an effect, but much of that record drop should've come regardless of whether guys were clean.
Nothing against Derrick. He is one of my favorite athletes. And I have absolutely no reason to suspect him beyond the "everyone is under suspicion at this point" argument.
That said, how does anyone know? Seriously, I have no freakin clue as to whether Derrick is clean. And the "most would agree" standard carries absolutely zero weight in my book.
Questioner of Things wrote:
Nothing against Derrick. He is one of my favorite athletes. And I have absolutely no reason to suspect him beyond the "everyone is under suspicion at this point" argument.
That said, how does anyone know? Seriously, I have no freakin clue as to whether Derrick is clean. And the "most would agree" standard carries absolutely zero weight in my book.
Bingo!
categorically wrote:
barry mccockiner wrote:But the point is, it should be harder to break those records as time progresses.
Not necessarily. It should only be harder if all other conditions are equal. They aren't.
Tracks have improved. Shoes have improved. Nutrition has improved. Training has improved. Global participation has improved as the sport became professional and more lucrative.
EPO might have fueled some of the improvements but other factors mean the records should fall steadily, even with no intrinsic improvement in athletic performance.
yes necessarily - you are an idiot.
No one knows anything about anyone, but this is a forum and not a courtroom -- I think it's clear we're all talking about our opinions, not fact. Absent any evidence beyond "he is fast", I'm inclined to think most runners are clean.
When people talk about someone probably being a doper, they usually have some reasoning behind it. E.g. Aouita was probably dirty based on his coaching exploits in Australia. If being fast is the sole determinant of whether you think a distance runner is doping, then there's no point in having a discussion.
Zat0pek wrote:
The last time the 10,000 WR was broken was in 2005, right after effective EPO testing went into widespread use.
EPOtest wrote:
I thought that the EPO test was used starting in 2000 and was fairly prevalent in the early 2000s at major competitions. Where did you get the information that widespread testing started in 2005? Or was did you make the conclusion of increased testing based on the absence of phenomenal times after 2005?
Not to speak for the other poster and I don't know the precise timeline, but without out of competition testing the EPO test is trivially easy to beat. The degree of OOC testing varies greatly across national bodies even today.