ryan foreman wrote:
You mean housing inflation is real.
Home ownership is at an all time low. Most properties are now owned by banks and hedge funds, in it for the inflation and income, and they're not making very many new loans.
The only reason that prices are up is because they are hoarding their properties.
Dow of poo? wrote:
Flagpole or other buy-and-hold guys - does this argument give you pause, or do you still see enough upside in the economy to offset the risk that the latest market recovery is built on an extremely shaky foundation?
I put trailing stop sell orders on my winners. When they drop, I'll automatically cash out. Simple.
The deficit is also falling quickly.Does Obama get credit for any of this?How about TARP and ARRA now guys?Not a peep about this joyous news from the Republicans.Just squealing about scandals, and about anything that distracts Americans from the fact the recovery is very real, and Obama was right all along.
Flagpole wrote:
Dow today as of NOW is up 86 to 15,422.23.
Housing recovery is real -
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2013/05/21/housing-recovery/?iid=HP_LNHere's hoping you have money in the market.
Cheers!
0% interest rates and QE-infinity surely have nothing to do with ihousing prices. It is also perfectly safe to assume that the housing maket will not slow down or crash again if interest rates go up and people can't get easy credit anymore, because that won't change demand or anything. The US economy is totally 100% fine - that's why we're printing money even faster now than we were four years ago. How could anything be wrong with an evonomy where the government is the biggest debtor in the history of the world and whose cemtral bank is committed to printing money forever? bottom line, massive money printing = healthy economy.
-liberal economic genius emitrius
lol lol lol lol wrote:
http://youtu.be/mRKp8A_gZ8c
Interesting, thanks.
i love being a liberal idiot so much. being a liberal idiot means that i can just mentally zero in on immediate concrete facts like the DOW going up without bothering to ask "why" that is. as a liberal idiot, i can just mentally tune out fundamental issues like America's ginormous trade deficit and what that implies for the US economy 10 years from now when I'll need my retirement money... because the DOW is going up TODAY, and that's all that matters. it doesn't matter that the US economy has suffered increasingly worse cyclical recessions every 4-6 years, making us due for another one any minute now, and that when it hits, we won't be able to quadruple our deficit or triple the money supply again to "stimulate" our way back to phony statistical economic growth. none of that matters because the DOW is going up TODAY, and TODAY is all that matters in the mind of a liberal IDIOT.
-liberal economic genius emitrius
did I mention that I LOVE being a liberal idiot? I'm so glad I have a mental policy of blocking out the realization that America will one day have to make interest payments on the national debt. 5% interest on $17 trillion... what does that matter to me? I'm a liberal idiot. so what if interest payments on the debt alone would consume 100% of tax receipts? that isn't going to happen because interest rates are low RIGHT NOW, and I ONLY think SHORT TERM. I never allow myself to think LONG TERM because if I allowed myself to understand what the future holds, that would be horrifying. If I don't like some aspect of reality, I just block it out. Why? BECAUSE I'M A LIBERAL IDIOT.
now, what if somebody points out any of the forgoing facts to me in the naive hope that I'll come to my senses? I know just what to say: RIGHT WINGER FOX NEWS SARAH PALIN TRICKLE DOWN ECONOMICS GLENN BECK FOX NEWS REPUBLICAN PARTY GEORGE BUSH BILL O'RIELLY FOX NEWS! That'll teach em to point out facts!
Pay attention wrote:
Dow of poo? wrote:Flagpole or other buy-and-hold guys - does this argument give you pause, or do you still see enough upside in the economy to offset the risk that the latest market recovery is built on an extremely shaky foundation?
I put trailing stop sell orders on my winners. When they drop, I'll automatically cash out. Simple.
Ha. You hope. That's a nice plan if the markets are a) open; b) functioning properly; and c) not flash-crashing. My bet is smart guys like you are going to get surprised.
liberal economic genius wrote:
did I mention that I LOVE being a liberal idiot? I'm so glad I have a mental policy of blocking out the realization that America will one day have to make interest payments on the national debt. 5% interest on $17 trillion... what does that matter to me? I'm a liberal idiot. so what if interest payments on the debt alone would consume 100% of tax receipts? that isn't going to happen because interest rates are low RIGHT NOW, and I ONLY think SHORT TERM. I never allow myself to think LONG TERM because if I allowed myself to understand what the future holds, that would be horrifying. If I don't like some aspect of reality, I just block it out. Why? BECAUSE I'M A LIBERAL IDIOT.
You mention a rate of 5% in one sentence, then point out in another that rates are low (near zero). The latter is correct. And since the interest rate on the debt is fixed, it's not the big problem you seem to think it is.
J.R. wrote:
Home ownership is at an all time low.
Incorrect. The home ownership rate is lower than it's been in nearly 18 years, but it is not at an all time low.
for me... wrote:
Ha. You hope. That's a nice plan if the markets are a) open; b) functioning properly; and c) not flash-crashing. My bet is smart guys like you are going to get surprised.
Ha ha. I'll take my chances.
Financial Market Analyst wrote:
qquasi wrote:If someone thinks that the housing recovery is real then they either 1) didn't do their homework or 2) are stupid.
We are at the start of an incredible boom comparable to 1982. Don't miss out or you will be kicking yourself for the rest of your life.
I think this is accurate. People in the United States WANT to be able to buy a home, and when that opportunity is lessened for several years, there's a bottleneck that is just waiting to be unleashed...kind of like the mas exodus of Baby Boomers now from the work force...it's greater than it would have been because so many prolonged their careers due to low stock market and murkier economic times.
holy crapola this is a massive rally - SP 500 up 25% since october. Can you believe that? 25% in 7 months.
My strategy is to hold until indices fall below their 200 day moving average. That way I don't have to be a brilliant macro economist - I just have to execute on a simple strategy.
But, cap gun to my head, I'm with FP - technology and cheap natural gas and low interest rates should fuel a burst of economic activity.
For rich people anyway - high school dropouts in the uS without a serious skill will live barely better than their third world brethren.
So finish school, kids.
liberal economic genius wrote:
0% interest rates and QE-infinity surely have nothing to do with ihousing prices. It is also perfectly safe to assume that the housing maket will not slow down or crash again if interest rates go up and people can't get easy credit anymore, because that won't change demand or anything. The US economy is totally 100% fine - that's why we're printing money even faster now than we were four years ago. How could anything be wrong with an evonomy where the government is the biggest debtor in the history of the world and whose cemtral bank is committed to printing money forever? bottom line, massive money printing = healthy economy.
-liberal economic genius emitrius
Yes, low rates are boosting housing prices. But mostly low inventory has been giving the big boost.
This isn't QE.
And there is absolutely no easy credit right now.
It is much harder to get any kind of credit, mortgages or credit line increases now that it has been in the past.
The money printing is the Fed buying bank assets, giving them more cash to work with. This will eventually reverse when the assets are sold on the market.
Most of the US debt is owed to wealthy Americans.
These people would rather loan the money to the US government then give it in the form of taxes which would lower the debt.
So as bad as the debt looks as one line item, the total wealth of America is great.
Dow of poo? wrote:
My investment strategy over the past 15 years or so has been pretty similar to what Flagpole recommends. For the most part, I've been happy with that approach, and plan to continue.
But then I see an article like this one from Sunday's WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324767004578484913679967772.htmlFinal two paragraphs:
"Here is the risk today. If the economy booms, quantitative easing will end. Stocks and, especially, bonds will suffer. But if the economy doesn't boom, stocks will suffer because profits will run out of steam. Then the Fed will have to resort to ever more wild measures to stimulate economic growth and inflation. Sooner or later, bonds will suffer, too.
These are more dangerous times than many investors realize. Far from holding a portfolio which is protected in all environments, they are basically betting on a steady boom with rising prosperity and no inflation—a best-case, and rare, scenario."
Flagpole or other buy-and-hold guys - does this argument give you pause, or do you still see enough upside in the economy to offset the risk that the latest market recovery is built on an extremely shaky foundation?
wull, look. If the economy booms, stocks will not suffer.Bonds will suffer mightily tho, esp if there is inflation.
if the economy doesn't boom stocks may not keep rising, but look at the evidence - companies have been able to make good coin in good economies and bad. Say we have slow growth - I don't think companies will have profit drops.
coach d wrote:
Something else not not being talked about lately is the US Dollar (full disclosure: I've been long US Dollar Index futures since Novemeber 2011). Whatever happened to that "coming" crash in the US Dollar since Obama got elected that right-wingers kept promising? The Dollar is now UP since Obama took office the first time; By comparison, the Dollar Index went from 120 to 72 while GWB and Republicans were in power.
These have not been the best of times for buy-and-hold (since 1999, not just 2009) and there has been a trading range market in place for the last 15 years. The top of this trading range on the SP500 was ~1605-1615, so we have perhaps broken out and in that case the thing to do would be buy and hold like the 1990s. There is almost certainly a test of 1600 coming, and either we will have a breakout or we will have a failure.
Well, I'm not a "right-winger," but I am a conservative, and under the disinflation/deflationary scenario that I have posited here for years and which the Fed is clearly fighting by bloating its balance sheet to pretty much unprecedented levels (though M2 and the velocity of money have been decidedly unaffected), the dollar would be expected to rise. The US is seen as the best house in the worst neighborhood among established, industrialized companies.
I agree with your second paragraph.
Who wants to own the yen or the euro right now?
Thank you President Obama!