A 2:30 marathon is just over seven 22-minute 6ks without a break. If it required 3 months of 30 mpw to run a few miles at goal marathon pace "some years ago", you certainly won't get there next year, sorry.
You could definitely do it in a few years, 2016 is a good goal, but it won't be next year.
realisticist wrote:
Link wrote:I agree with some of the more discouraging replies in at least one way: Depending on the course, your 6k is nothing special.
Other than that, I disagree with the pessimists. In HS, my first XC race as a sophomore was a 3 mile in about 18 minutes. I was 15, but, that's not very good. And I broke 2:30.
Here's the truth: You probably do not have any great talent for running, but, luckily for you, breaking 2:30 doesn't require it. Work hard, stay healthy, be focused and patient. It may take a few years for you to achieve your goal, but, it is possible. I'm living proof.
Did you run break 2:30 the year after you ran 3 miles in 18 minutes?
Because that's what the OP is trying to do. Run 2:30 NEXT YEAR (which is actually yearS after his 6k run).
Still disagreeing with the pessimists?
No, but I was 15. He's got a 18-20 months. He's in his early twenties. If he's diligent, smart and lucky, he can do it.
But I will concede the more general point that he may need more than a year and a half and more than one shot at it to do it.
Hopefully the OP is not some bored kid posting on here for kicks. Hopefully he will really try and report back. He should. All of the truly epic threads on LR are those in which someone declares their intention to accomplish some crazy goal and then gives a blow by blow of their progress. OP? You up to that?
Consider This wrote:
dan_cooley wrote:Not how running works. Lifetime mileage and a long term progression that you build on each year is how you improve. You can't just train "twice as hard" and get the same result.
Now if he's a 2:10 guy hiding underneath an undertrained exterior, maybe he can run 2:30 on 18ish months of training (after all next year is 2014, that could be up to 22 months).
But yeah, you don't seem to understand how training works.
No, I understand you might get some better over a longer period of time, but some of this BS that you people believe about lifetime progression is just an illusion caused by the fact that most American runners start running in their early teens and it takes a long time to reach physical maturity. If you start at 21 it is going to be a very different progression than if you start at 12.
That's absurd. You can't just "train hard" because you want to. It takes years for your body to adapt to an increasing amount of stimulus before you can handle being able to "train hard".
NO ONE can skip that foundational work, not Americans, not Kenyans, not the French, no one.
So no, that lifetime progression is not an illusion and is not related to physical maturity (e.g. 17-18 year old Kenyans running world-class times).
Starting at 21 can be just as long a progression as starting as a teenager. Might even take longer if you're more prone to weight gain and slower to recover (not so much a deal at 21 as 31, but not the same at 13, either).
Thanks for all the responses
Of course if I stick to my goal I will post the results and maybe even some updates along the road
I was a 1:55/4:25 guy in HS and at age 28 decided to get serious about the marathon. I was fit, but not running a ton. Within 20 months I was up to 110+ mpw consistently. I knew there were no short cuts and I was willing to put in the work. But what I didn't realize was the training can't be forced. I basically sh/t the bed in all my races because I was doing too much too soon, even though I was injury free.
So my advice would be to scrap the 2:30 goal, just get it out of your mind. Train properly and reasonably, and let the results come. If you think of it as a 5-10 year process you'll be much better off.
You may never be able to break 2:30. Your ceiling might not be that high. 22:00 6k after minimal training is very impressive, but there are plenty of high school guys that do the equivalent of that in their first year or two of running.
As someone previously stated, 6k is worlds apart from the marathon. What's the longest run you've ever been on? I know you said you wanted to do some 120-150 minute runs in training, which would be about spot on for marathon training, but if you've never run that far, it's going to take A LOT of base mileage to get used to running that far, let alone racing that far.
On top of what I've said above, you have to stay healthy. I don't think you've run enough to just increase the mileage to the level you need to run 2:30. Train for a few years and start with 10ks and half marathons, then ask us again if you can run 2:30.