Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At The U.S. 5000m Record

Hi SPMBLNPF. I've been meaning to have a serious, rational discussion with you regarding Galen Rupp's ceiling for a long time now.

You see, I think you are very close with your prediction, but just slightly off. Usually, a good indicator of someone's 5k time is to take one minute off their 10k time, then cut that in half.

(26:48.00)-(1:00)=25:48.00

(25:48.00)/(2)=12:54.00

You'll notice it is the same way with Kenenisa Bekele:

(26:17.53)-(1:00)=25:17.53

(25:17.53)/(2)=12:38.76 (Bekele's pb is 12:37.35, so 1.41 off)

Also with Haile Gebrselassie:

(26:22.78)-(1:00)=25:22.78

(25:22.78)/(2)=12:41.39 (Haile's pb is 12:39.36, so 2.03 off)

With an average difference of 1.77, this would actually indicate that Galen is capable of 12:52.23 (based off his year old 10k time). 12:52.23 is under the AR.

Now this method isn't 100% accurate, or universally accepted. Other conversion methods used could spit out a time between 12:50 and 12:57 even. My point is that if Galen runs to his true potential (based off his 10k which is a year old now), it will be very close to the American record AND your predicted ceiling. Maybe over, maybe under. Other factors will probably determine that, and by how much.

But the reason I think Galen will go under the American record (again, provided that he his healthy and runs to full potential) is because he has improved much since that incredible night in Brussels last September. He has made much improvements to his 1500m, 2 mile, and 5000m personal bests in the last year, which all yield a range of benefits, i.e. speed, strength, hell even confidence.

So for these reasons I think (again, if he runs to full potential) Galen will run 12:50ish. If the pacemaking is good and the whole field really goes for it than I predict something in the 12:47.5 realm. If the pacemaking goes bad, the whole field slows, etc., I predict he'll run something like 12:53ish, so the AR will depend on wether or not he can outkick Lagat AND make up for lost time.

So, with that, I hope to hear back from you.

Have a good day gentlemen.

And ladies of course ;)

The Olympic 5000m final, Lausanne's dnf in the 1500m, and the bronchitis are all bad signs, but the reasonable prediction if he is entirely healthy and back in the shape he was in either for USATF 5000m or Olympic 10000m tells me he can run sub 12:50 with ideal pacing. And so can Lagat.

all things are possible with Jesus.

SPMBLNPF wrote:

someone had to do it wrote:

these threads are really old

not funny anymore, just stupid

What's funny about any of them?

What's NOT funny about them?

Some

People

Might

Be

Laughing

Now @

Prediction

Failure

1 1808 Mohamed Farah GBR 27:30.42 .

2 3250 Galen Rupp USA 27:30.90 .

3 1680 Tariku Bekele ETH 27:31.43 .

4 1679 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 27:32.44 .

Well, Trollist, there really isn't much evidence that Galen has improved that much since Brussels. Galen likely could have broken 13 last year, and pretty much everybody on this board agrees with this, so his 12:58.90 this year is not much improvement. Galen's medal in the 10,000m is impressive, but Galen was running against other runners who can barely break 13 this year. Galen's true situation manifested in the 5000m, where, although admittedly he was not fresh, he was truly outclassed by superior runners.

Bernard Lagat thinks the American record could be broken in Zurich:

"At the end of the day, there will be one American who is going to maybe actually break the record," Lagat told Flotrack.org. "I think that record is in danger because they're planning this race to be one of the fastest and that record could go."

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/bernard-lagat-believes-american-record-could-broken-mens-153600243--oly.html

Well, Bernard Lagat is wrong. There is NO CHANCE that Rupp, Lagat or Lopez Lomong can run faster than 12:53.60. Rupp never could due to his ceiling, Lagat could have in the past but he has NO CHANCE from here on, and Lomong will NEVER run that fast either. These are facts and they will not be palatable to some, but this is the truth.

SoyourownMotherBlamedyourLimitedNutsizefyoubeingPermanentlyF*cked.

Your act was annoying before Rupp demonstrated that he is perhaps the greatest distance runner in American history. Now that he has proven himself, your inane posts are not much more than those of an idiot craving attention...any attention. F*ck off.

Wunderlusting wrote:

SoyourownMotherBlamedyourLimitedNutsizefyoubeingPermanentlyF*cked.

Your act was annoying before Rupp demonstrated that he is perhaps the greatest distance runner in American history. Now that he has proven himself, your inane posts are not much more than those of an idiot craving attention...any attention. F*ck off.

Moron, this is no act. This is who I am. This is what it is like for a genius to walk among imbeciles. The imbeciles assume the genius is putting on an act.

Rupp is NOT even close to the greatest distance runner in American history. Are you kidding me? How stupid are you? Yes, you a truly an idiot.

Isn't it ironic that someone who probably has Cheetos dust caked on his fat little finger tips is spewing ill informed nonsense about how America's best distance runner can't break a record that is well within his grasp? Gee, that makes a whole lot of sense. Unless you are a highly renowned distance coach, which I sincerely doubt you are, I cannot see your opinion being either remotely credible or worth even the slightest consideration. In fact, I would go as far as to challenge your ability to run more than a few steps without getting nauseous from all the Diet Mountain Dew and Cool Ranch Doritos you've been ingesting these past few years while perusing these boards to try and piss off unwitting high school athletes.

Though the First Amendment may grant you the privilege of free speech, it does not mean that you should take advantage of it as such because, frankly, it seriously makes me question the validity of allowing morons like you the ability to do so. It just makes us all look bad. If I have the same rights as you, by the transitive property don't I have the ability to make as big of an ass out of myself with the same lack of apparent consequence? Yes, yes I do, but I, being much smarter than you, would much rather use my free speech to insult you. Your intelligence is entirely questionable after having read this clearly well informed, concise bit of writing you have so generously graced us with, and I thoroughly doubt that you've been able to hold a stream of consciousness long enough to form an intelligent thought due to the fact that your hunger and wheezing from the exorbitant amount of taco bell you shove down your face hole has prevented you from doing so.

Sorry, I got on a tangent that was strongly rooted in me hating you, but I digress; back to your mindless banter. You have no idea what Rupp can run. Salazar, Rupp and Mo are probably the only 3 individuals in this world that have an idea of what he can run. Your ill conceived notions of what is possible by this man have been conjured up through a potent combination of narcissism and mild retardation.

I thoroughly suggest you inquire within yourself to find the means to lead a life that is not focused around posting ridiculous comments, such as the ones seen above, on useless message boards that have nothing to do with real life, such as this one.

I have only one question for you SPMBLNPF.

Wouldn't it be more appropriate to call it a floor, as it is the lowest possible time he will achieve?

I suppose it can go either way though, as ceiling is conventionally used to mean top level/maximum skill/etc.

what's a ceiling?

SPMBLNPF wrote:Of course, there has been some chatter about Galen attempting to break the U.S. 5000m record tomorrow in Zurich. This is not going to happen, as Galen's ceiling at 5000m is 12:55. Now even some of you dimwits can ascertain that if one's ceiling is 12:55, it is quite difficult to run 12:53. Galen will struggle tomorrow to even break 13, but I am not ruling out that he sets a personal best. Bernard Lagat is going to be ahead of Galen, and Galen will do well to finish in the top 8. Now that I have spoken, there is not much to do but wait for the unfolding of the obvious which I have written above.

idiot

12'55 is no ceiling

try 10s faster

if he's recovered from chest infection, this might offer him a taper, bringing him well rested to the meet & full energy reserves

if so, 12'53 shoud be no problem

SPBLNPF or whatever is brilliant just for getting this rise out of you. That is truly genius.

the infection is a trick to confuse his opponents. However

I agree that he can easily go 12:52, in a perfectly paced

race I see 12:47 or so.

I hope the dopers from Paris are on the juice again after

London so we can get times down to 12:40 (perhaps dipping under????)

Another moron chimes in here. Your lack of intelligence is apparent even upon a cursory glance of your effort here. You somehow think it is relevant whether I have a predilection for consuming fast food or junk food. This is indicative of a defect in your logical reasoning capacity, as is your ostensible suggestion that the only way I could accurately evaluate Galen Rupp is if I were a renowned distance coach. No offense to anybody, but the smartest people don't generally become coaches of distance runners.

You're also manifesting your astounding ignorance with your comments concerning the First Amendment and free speech. It does not apply to this message board. The First Amendment is concerned with the government, initially just Congress, and later the states, abridging the freedom of speech, along with other freedoms. Please try to educate yourself.

peace man.

Despite your attempts to seem somewhat articulate, I have found a fatal flaw in your ploy; you, my friend, have the intellect of a comatose chimp. You've hid it well. I applaud your efforts. However, like I mentioned previously, I am undoubtably smarter than you, so I can easily sum this up for you as to why you are wrong, in many aspects. Let me begin:

Granted, it would seem rather silly of me to assume that the only people who can "accurately evaluate" Galen Rupp's performance are those who are coaches for a living. I do not doubt that there are those that inhabit this world that can scientifically deduce what a person such as Rupp could run, given previous performances, but you sir, are most decidedly not one of them. I only bring this point up to merely state that coaches, specifically Rupp's coach, would seem the most worthy individuals to determine such a thing, correct? Even you of reprehensible logical thought processes can agree that those who are paid to coach should be well versed in their craft. Hence, I felt the need to point out that neither YOU nor ANYONE else on this planet, outside of those who can call themselves elite coaches for a living, can accurately determine an athlete's performance. You wouldn't want a cardiologist examining your vagina, would you?

Also, not only is your knowledge of the First Amendment on the level of an autistic 1st grader, you've completely and utterly misinterpreted the entirety of it. Firstly, it does in fact apply to this message board, specifically because this is a type of expression, and is therefore protected under the First Amendment. Secondly, while you are correct that it does apply to the government, it applies specifically to an individual's right to express themselves (ie. in speech, symbolism, action, etc) in any way they see fit without any GOVERNMENT interference, within reason. You offered no substance in your response, so I can only assume you skimmed a Wikipedia article to gain a "vast knowledge" on the subject.

If you knew ANYTHING about the law, and the First Amendment in particular, you would know that Reno v. ACLU actually made online speech (such as this) one of the most protected forms of expression under the First Amendment. So yes, dick, to repeat what I just said (in case you were fist deep in some delicious Tositos) it does apply to this message board. Also, this should be a lesson to not blurt out things which you know nothing about, which seems to be quite a bit judging by your immense lack of knowledge on the various subjects we discussed here.

Now let's assume he HASN'T improved since Brussels, for the sake of argument. As I've shown his converted 5k is 12:52.23, or thereabouts. It's right there in the ball bark of the AR. Assuming he runs like he did in Brussels in 2011, and assuming the pacemaking is good, it's very clear by simple math that he COULD in fact break 12:55, AND the AR. Although to GET the AR would mean he would have to do that and beat Lagat, which is another matter.

As for Lagat I disagree that he couldn't beat his 5k PB. He just broke the indoor 5k AR this winter, and let's not forget he ran his current outdoor AR just one year ago. Plus he had a spectacular indoor season with his 3k world title. Overlooking injuries, where has there ever been an instance where a runner suddenly couldn't even compete with the guys he was outkicking just 6 months earlier? He's got an excellent chance to break and retain his AR, possibly in the 12:40's this time.

As for Lopez, I don't think he'll drop 20 seconds off his PB all of a sudden, but he'll try and stay in it and he could break 13:00 for sure. In fact, his season's best is 4 seconds faster than Lagat's season's best. And he looked like a beast at Stanford.

To wrap it up, I really have trouble understanding how you can state, with absolute certainty and accuracy, what these guys will run (and be able to run) right down to the nearest second. My math predicts Galen at 12:52.23, yet you say I am at least 2.77 seconds off, and specifically that wether it's too high or low. How is it you're able to calculate down to the nearest second what someone is capable of running? Serious question.

You're the moron who has quickly copied from a wikipedia article. I am brilliant and had no need to consult any source. You have now corrected yourself after being taken to the woodshed by a superior mind, and after receiving the warranted intellectual beating, you now attempt to correct yourself with juvenile ad hominem attacks to distract from your paucity of knowledge. Your attempt to describe the First Amendment is obviously a cut and paste job, and your mind is clearly second-rate. It doesn't take me long to size up a mind, and I feel empathy for the fact that your pedestrian mind is so trailing in the wake of my palpable intellectual horsepower.

To sum up, you, after being admonished by your superior, have changed your mind about one needing to be a renowned distance coach as a prerequisite to analyzing an athlete's potential, and furthermore have consulted a source to attempt to appear knowledgeable concerning the First Amendment, but only after being exposed for the ignorant fool that you are.