Evan Jager 8:06.81 AR for 3rd Place!

girls gettin real wild wrote:

Not very far at all. He will be there on the last lap but probably be outkicked.

He needs sub 8 shape to have a real chance at a medal. He might be in sub 8 shape by the London final. Barely.

So far in distance medal chances:

Rupp 5+10 40%

Lagat 5 30%

1500m guys 25%

*Jager 3kS 20%

Symmonds 8 20%

Hall Mar 15%

Teg 5%

Ritz <5%

We should get at least 1 or 2 medals on the men's side. This is definitely a big improvement from the teams in Beijing, Athens, and Sydney. The women should also get a medal or two probably either Montano and Uceny/Simpson.

Pretty good overall, but the 1500m guys are ranked way too high. I would give them 10% at best. You might saw that Centro medaled last year, but they I ask, can he make it through three rounds and still run fast enough to place? Good work though.

Probable Probabilities wrote:

\

Adjusting for your obvious US bias we are left with the following realistic probabilities for US medals:

Rupp 5+10 10%

Lagat 5 25%

1500m guys 10%

*Jager 3kS 10%

Symmonds 8 10%

Hall Mar 0%

Teg 0%

Ritz 0%

Overall about a 50% chance of zero medals on the men's side. Perhaps a 40% of one and 10% chance of more than one.

So the guy who will have either the fourth or fifth best mark in the field only has a 1 in 10 shot at a medal? Yep, that makes sense.

He has found his event very natural steepler very impressive good to watch in fact I would say in any event he is the closest we will become to challenging the africans! Was brillaint to watch he is more talented than galen and solinsky in my opinion. Just praise that's all good run

113 wrote:

Probable Probabilities wrote:

Adjusting for your obvious US bias we are left with the following realistic probabilities for US medals:

Rupp 5+10 10%

Lagat 5 25%

1500m guys 10%

*Jager 3kS 10%

Symmonds 8 10%

Hall Mar 0%

Teg 0%

Ritz 0%

Overall about a 50% chance of zero medals on the men's side. Perhaps a 40% of one and 10% chance of more than one.

So the guy who will have either the fourth or fifth best mark in the field only has a 1 in 10 shot at a medal? Yep, that makes sense.

Come back to me after the games, little man.

113 wrote:

Probable Probabilities wrote:

Adjusting for your obvious US bias we are left with the following realistic probabilities for US medals:

Rupp 5+10 10%

Lagat 5 25%

1500m guys 10%

*Jager 3kS 10%

Symmonds 8 10%

Hall Mar 0%

Teg 0%

Ritz 0%

Overall about a 50% chance of zero medals on the men's side. Perhaps a 40% of one and 10% chance of more than one.

So the guy who will have either the fourth or fifth best mark in the field only has a 1 in 10 shot at a medal? Yep, that makes sense.

4th or 5th best does not medal. I believe he has a shot, but the Kenyans, Frenchies, Moroccans, and Ethiopians are all very good, and have more Olympic/World experience. The two kips who beat Jager aren't even on the team...though in fairness, Koech should be, and that Conselus guy seems very, very good. I'm excited for Jager and the US guys, but there's a lot of hype over chance to medal, and there are some very talented, experienced folks in all the fields.

Probable Probabilities wrote:

113 wrote:

So the guy who will have either the fourth or fifth best mark in the field only has a 1 in 10 shot at a medal? Yep, that makes sense.

Come back to me after the games, little man.

If you can find an online bookmaker who will give you 10-1 odds on Jager medalling, post a link before the games. That would be an exceptionally generous number.

ummm... ever heard of Evan Jager?

I guess most guys commenting on this forum knows nothing about running.E. Jager did good today and this does not guarantee him a medal. It was his first time running sub 8:10 and the race didnt have prelims or qualifying rounds. When it comes to Olympics, it is a different ball game altogether. I am theorizing a kenyan Sweep then fourth place is Mekhissi-Benabbad, Roba and perhaps Jager if he makes to the final. It will be difficult for him because it is his first time at the olympics. Experience and tactics matters at this stage and I do not think he is ready for it.

Good job Jager..That is a real American Born and bred in the USA.GO USA!!!..Jager will WIN GOLD like my Horse..God bless America.

Hall is a lot better than Meb. Meb's marathon I think he really peaked for, laid it all out.

Hall wasn't 100% and hasn't been since Boston. I don't even think he was 100% in Boston. He probably won't be in 100% in London but he'll be better than Meb most likely.

I agree somewhat, but maybe Jager is the darkhorse that comes outta nowhere to medal. He dropped 11 seconds in only the 5th steeple of his life.

Last two tweets from Bobby Curtis about an hour ago:

Bobby Curtis Bobby Curtis ‏@BobbbyCurtis:

"sexually"

Bobby Curtis Bobby Curtis ‏@BobbbyCurtis:

"Full Disclosure: I got aroused watching @EvanJager steeple tonight."

4th or 5th best does not medal. I believe he has a shot, but the Kenyans, Frenchies, Moroccans, and Ethiopians are all very good, and have more Olympic/World experience. The two kips who beat Jager aren't even on the team...though in fairness, Koech should be, and that Conselus guy seems very, very good. I'm excited for Jager and the US guys, but there's a lot of hype over chance to medal, and there are some very talented, experienced folks in all the fields.

Also, one day meets are not the same as multi-round championships. Some people run better with rounds. Others worse. They're different.

Odinga wrote:

I guess most guys commenting on this forum knows nothing about running.E. Jager did good today and this does not guarantee him a medal. It was his first time running sub 8:10 and the race didnt have prelims or qualifying rounds. When it comes to Olympics, it is a different ball game altogether. I am theorizing a kenyan Sweep then fourth place is Mekhissi-Benabbad, Roba and perhaps Jager if he makes to the final. It will be difficult for him because it is his first time at the olympics. Experience and tactics matters at this stage and I do not think he is ready for it.

No one is saying he is guaranteed a medal. But at this point he is pretty clearly among the top 6-8 steeplers in the world (and at least 1-2 of that group will NOT be in the Olympics). What else does he need to do to prove that he is a medal contender?

As for tactics and multiple rounds, he was pretty tactically sound today, did fine with multiple rounds at the US championships, and has shown the ability to close very, very quickly on the last lap. I'm not sure what else you would look for.

Way to go, Evan!!!!!!! In only your 5th steeple!!!! Congrats to Jerry as well!

These Salazar and Shumaker runners from the Oregon project are smoking this season.

joecrunner wrote:

8:06/8:07 equates to a 12:55 I think.

http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/Mercier/window7.html

Never liked the Mercier tables.

IMO, it's closer to a 13:15ish... maybe 13:10ish.

At any rate, glad to see a decent athlete finally focusing a bit more on the Steeple. Hopefully he gets down to around 8:00 in couple years.

As for the Olympics this year... I think he makes the final, but I think 5th or 6th would be pretty realistic.

Joe mama wrote:

And why would you put hall with 15% he got beat twice, decisively by Meb

Haven't been keeping up with your running news, have you?

Not to be a downer-obviously a great day for Jager-but it's always a little disappointing to me when an American Record occurs in a race that wasn't won. The best we've ever done was only 3rd place on some random day...