I would love to see Webb, German, and Leer go for it in the prelims. It would boost their confidence at least. But judging from what I've seen from most of the other American runners, they're too afraid to go for it early on in the race. They want to get dragged along to the times and if the pace is too slow, they don't do anything about it. Very frustrating to watch. Hopefully the threat of the deadline will make them run fast.
True that. Except this is not the same Alan Webb. I would love to see this, but I think it's almost time to move up to the 5k for him.
In response to the OP: best way to hit the standard is in the prelim. A 3:35 will not feel much easier for Wheating than it would for someone like German. Realistically, this is the only way for these B guys to get the time AND have a chance in the finals. It is possible that such a tactic could knock out a few of the A guys (Centro, torrence, etc) if they're not careful. Not probable, but it could happen. And even if it didn't, most of the competitors would be equally tired from a hard prelim effort. They're big boys; they can handle a hard race now and then.
junky monkey wrote:
I would love to see Webb, German, and Leer go for it in the prelims. It would boost their confidence at least. But judging from what I've seen from most of the other American runners, they're too afraid to go for it early on in the race. They want to get dragged along to the times and if the pace is too slow, they don't do anything about it. Very frustrating to watch. Hopefully the threat of the deadline will make them run fast.
This guy gets it.
The incentives are for SOMEBODY to make it a fast race in the heats.
So I am guessing somebody will take it out. Maybe a guy like Merber? Somebody who has a reasonable shot, wants a contract when they graduate, and knows making the final in an obvious way would make them much more, "visible".
I'd say this applies to all events. Expect to see some fast racing.
There are so many misguided statements in this thread. Or statements that ignore the past as evidence as to what could happen.
Remember Gabe's "comeback" in '08 and how he got close to the A and needed it at the trials and everyone talked it up, even the announcers, and Gabe Jennings, one of America's gutsiest racers in his prime, ran tactically. He didn't even TRY to get the A. Regardless of whether he was tired or afraid or simply not fast enough, he let the race go and never made an effort to hit that pace. No one will try in the final this year either.
When it comes down to it, even the guys looking to be "visible" won't do something they consider foolish because in their eyes, 3rd place in 3:43 with no OG this year is better than 9th place in 3:43 after a hard opening 800 in the lead that left them in the dust for the last lap. They don't want the risk. It's stupid, it makes little sense to us peons, but it's tried and true.
It's helpful to remember that Webb is kind of insane and is likely willing to do what others are not, even Jennings.
50-60-60-45
row row rowbury your boat wrote:
There are so many misguided statements in this thread. Or statements that ignore the past as evidence as to what could happen...
The difference this year is that there will be at least 6 guys in every heat of the first round that need the standard. But you're probably right, they'll think, "just get through the rounds and go after the OG A in the final." Then they will get to the finals and there will be 5 guys with the A and 5 guys without it, none of whom will want to take the lead.
The wild card is that to advance to the next round on time as opposed to place, you better run fast in your heat, because somebody in another heat might decide to go for the A and make that heat fast. So maybe every heat will be fast.