Emmanuel Mutai Replaces Mosses Mosop in 2012 London Games

G Mutai should've had this spot. E Mutai is good, but he's far off of G Mutai's level. Makau is also far superior. AK sucks.

Hi Steve,

I do know Geoffrey a bit better and also his Dutch Manager. There is a extremely good chance he´ll compete in Berlin in an attempt to better the WR. I do believe Berlin, with the new sponsor BMW, has the resources to pay both Makau and Mutais appearance fees. Last year it was Haile and Makau. I doubt Mutais appearance fee is higher than was Hailes.

greetings, bikila

bikila02 wrote:

There is a extremely good chance he´ll compete in Berlin in an attempt to better the WR. I do believe Berlin, with the new sponsor BMW, has the resources to pay both Makau and Mutais appearance fees. Last year it was Haile and Makau.

That's kind of what I was thinking. Makau & G.M. want to shoot for the WR this fall instead of a medal, so E.M. gets the call for London.

I agree that AK was never clear on their selection process and in the end it was subjective. I don't care for their process.

Let's look at some facts:

AK, early this year, announced that they would select their marathon team from 6 people, Makau, Kirui, Mosop, Kipsang, G Mutai and G Mutai.

(They had implied last year that Makau as WR holder and Kirui as World Champion had spots but they backed off from that commitment)

They said that they would conclude their decisions after they ran their spring marathons.

G Mutai ran Boston and had a DNF

Mosop was 3rd in Rotterdam in 2:05:03

The London race went as follows:

1 Kipsang 2:04:44

6 Kirui 2:07:56

7 E Mutai 2:08:01

DNF Makau

So who did they choose for their team?

The three best performers in April.

Kipsang with his London win

Mosop with his 2:05:03

And Kirui who barely broke 2:08 but finished ahead of E Mutai and Makau.

It seems like G Mutai's DNF did not impress.

Now with Mosop out, they went to the next best performer this year, E Mutai.

So I infer that a G Mutai win in Boston would have put him on the team. Looks like it would be really tough to not put him on the team if he won Boston this year. If they did, it would obviously be fixed.

As it stands now, it actually looks very objective.

I gotta admit, Makau didn't do himself any favors dropping out of London. But he did make a couple of good points afterwards, first that he thought he'd been guaranteed a spot on the team for breaking the world record, and second, given that he thought he had a spot, he didn't think he had enough time to run well in April and then again in August. So who knows. I've read on the LetsRun pages that he comes from a different tribe from most of the top Kenyans, and that the selectors thought that might create some animosity.

As for Geoffrey Mutai, in fact Ottawa wasn't his first good run of the year. The weekend before that, he won a pretty decent 10k back in Kenya, I believe. In any case, how they can judge him based on Boston this spring is completely beyond me. I was there myself, in pretty decent shape for a hobby runner, and it was brutal. The crowds were clapping whenever a cloud passed overhead to give us a whisper of relief. For myself, I got to the top of Heartbreak, grabbed a couple of litres of milk at a nearby Dunkin Donuts, then when I stepped out a train was waiting at the station, so I took it as an omen and bailed. And I hate bailing. I've run more than 50 marathons, and it was my very first DNF. I really don't see how dropping out of Boston on that day could be used against GM to the point where he's not even considered as an alternate after your third choice drops out. Not after the year he had last year. And conversely, how they couldn't consider Korir after he sucked it up and ran a pretty respectable winning time that day is pretty kooky too. After being second to Mosop in Chicago the year before. I hope that living and training a lot of the year in North America didn't cost him the newly unveiled alternate spot.

I mean, if we want to talk 'what have you done lately', what exactly have Mosop, Kurui and now Emmanuel Mutai done recently? At least since Makau's run 9 months ago in Berlin and GM's only 7 months ago in NY? After winning London in April 2011, E Mutai got absolutely crushed by G Mutai in NY, then ran a mediocre race (by world-class standards) in London this year. In the same race, Kirui proved (at least to me) that he cannot stay with a really fast pace, and like E Mutai, ran a good race but not a remarkable one. I mean, what has he really done since the last World Championship? Now Moses Mosop has a lot of potential, and I love his nickname (the Big Engine) and he was great in Chicago (back in October, a few weeks earlier than G Mutai's astonishing NY victory), but after going on about world record attempts, he didn't distinguish himself in Frankfurt. I mean, all of these guys at least finished their races, granted, but not in such fashion as to give any indication they might have a chance of medalling in the Olympics. Whereas with Geoffrey Mutai and Patrick Makau, unless there's some injuries there I don't know about, you know those two are going to be in the mix, no matter what the pace may be.

So I'm thinking it doesn't look nearly as promising for the Kenyans as it did a few months ago. The Ethiopians pretty much picked their team after Dubai. They were formidable anyways, but they will be well-rested, and in my opinion they will take at least two of the marathon medals in London.

On the bright side, maybe Makau and Geoffrey Mutai really will run Berlin. And maybe Wesley Korir and Martin Lel will say what the heck, and join them.

One can only dream.

I think the point is that Kenya needs to lay out their selection process well ahead of time instead of making it up on the fly.

And I think they simply need a Trials race like the US.

Those that don't want to miss out on a money race can skip the Trials and the Olympics and just go run for money.

Top 3 make the team with the 4th as the alternate.

Racing head to head is the only way to decide who gets to go to the race.

And we know the race doesn't have to be held in Kenya.

* wrote:

You don't think Emmanuel Mutai is good enough to get a medal?

I actually believe that he can win a medal but there is just no way a healthy Mutai can beat a healthy Mutai.

They should have taken Mutai.

Just had a thought. Maybe Mosop will be healthy for Berlin, too. Wouldn't that be sweet.

I agree with those who say that it would have been nice had the Kenyan selection process been laid out clearly from the start, maybe with a single race to decide it, as per the American trial. Because as anyone who has ever run a bunch of marathons knows, it is really tough to compare the times on different courses on different days under different weather conditions.

But that's not what really burns. What really burns is something more selfish. That is, I love the Olympics, and I love the marathon. And for a while I thought we were looking at the London 2012 race being an absolute contest for the ages.

And now, I don't know. It'll be ok, probably, but without Makau and Geoffrey Mutai it likely won't be great.

But I hope I'm wrong. I mean, who could have predicted Wanjiru. Well, other than the LetsRun pages, that is. And at least we'll have Berlin. Maybe.

If Makau thought that he'd been guaranteed a spot for breaking the world record, it's his own fault. Ibrahim Hussein flatly denied that assertion last September, and said that the selection panel would be monitoring the candidates up to mid-April of this year before making any decisions:

Regarding Kirui, I don't how you can reasonably argue for Makau's selection based on his performance in Frankfurt last September and simultaneously ask "what has [Kirui] really done since the last world championship?" The last world championship was last September! Kirui ran brilliantly, with an amazing late-race surge in tough conditions that carried him to victory by almost two-and-a-half minutes. And his performance in London was probably more impressive than that of anyone else other than Kipsang. Kirui and Kipsang were, to me, easy picks for the team.

I was not thrilled with Mosop's selection. I watched his performance in Rotterdam (not Frankfurt, as you said), and I felt (contrary to his esteemed coach's view, I realize) that he was just beaten rather easily by two Ethiopeans, despite considerable individualized pacemaking assistance, in a time that was not all that great for the conditions (which were better than some have reported). I also wasn't as impressed as many by his second in Boston, first in Chicago, and world records at 25,000 and 30,000 (although they were still very impressive almost any standard). But the other three candidates had their weaknesses, too. G. Mutai had nagging foot injuries and uneven training leading up to a very unimpressive performance in Boston. Makau had a hamstring injury that took him out of London within the first ten miles, which suggests either a significant pre-existing injury or poor racing fitness, neither of which is likely to turn around quickly. E. Mutai was a complicated case, hard to assess without a good understanding of the effects of typhoid. But his performance in London last year, along with a good effort in trying circumstances this year, make him a legitimate first alternate selection. I've got no complaints about the selections. The panel played the cards they were dealt.

Thanks for the correction on Mosop. It was indeed Rotterdam he ran this spring, not Frankfurt. I guess it was later than I thought when I posted. Although I see you made a similar mistake, saying Makau's run was Frankfurt and not Berlin.

I agree that Kirui is a great runner. Hell, all these guys are great runners, and I don't mean to be disrespectful to them. They leave me in awe. And Kirui ran well at the 2011 Worlds. But his time was 2:07:38, not overwhelming by today's standards; although he did win by a couple of minutes, from what I read the guys behind him let him go, and theirs turned into a tactical race for 2nd; and I wouldn't call it a stellar field he beat - in second was Vincent Kipruto and in third was Feyisa Lilesa. Abderrahime Bouramdane also ran. Good runners all, but not nearly the calibre of Geoffrey Mutai or Patrick Makau, not in my opinion. Certainly not in terms of 2011 results. Look, Kirui should run well. But if London 2012 is any indication, if the Ethiopians go out at 2:03 or 2:04 pace, he will not be able to keep in touch. Makau and G Mutai would have been.

I like Emmanuel Mutai. He's won a couple of big ones, and doesn't seem to be afraid to lace them up against anyone. He probably would have been my alternate the first time around. And I'd read he had typhoid some months prior to the London race. But still, I thought the committee was saying that the selection was based on performances. And his performance in London wasn't all that great. Certainly nothing to suggest he'd have a better chance than Makau or G Mutai at the Olympics. Not given how GMutai hammered him in New York. I mean, 2:05:06 on a pretty tough course, against a good field that included E Mutai before he got typhoid. Now that's street cred. And way more impressive than Kirui's win, in addition to being a few weeks more recent. In my opinion.

AK is putting all their eggs in the Kipsang basket. The guy is in great shape and has a good shot at gold, but I highly doubt Kenya will clinch all three medals. Why you pick EM over GM or PM is beyond me.

But his performance in London last year, along with a good effort in trying circumstances this year, make him a legitimate first alternate selection.

And the late start and hot weather in august make EM the man.

OttawaSteve wrote:

And Kirui ran well at the 2011 Worlds. But his time was 2:07:38, not overwhelming by today's standards; although he did win by a couple of minutes, from what I read the guys behind him let him go . . . . Look, Kirui should run well. But if London 2012 is any indication, if the Ethiopians go out at 2:03 or 2:04 pace, he will not be able to keep in touch. Makau and G Mutai would have been.

The temperatures for the marathon at the 2011 World Championships were in the mid-70s, with relative humidity in the 60s and dew point in the 60s. Kirui covered the second half in 1:02:31, with a 25k-30k split in 14:17. I wouldn't say that the guys behind him "let him go"; no one could cover that move.

And "if London 2012 is any indication," Kirui can cover a 2:03 or 2:04 pace better than Makau, who couldn't handle it for ten miles before dropping out. Kirui was still with Kipsang through twenty miles at sub-2:04 pace. G. Mutai's performance in Boston this year certainly didn't show that he could do that. (By the way, although I don't give PRs much weight at this level, it may surprise some to learn that Kirui and G. Mutai have almost identical marathon PRs -- within ten seconds -- both set at Rotterdam.)

I thought that AK could legitimately select Kirui based on his world championships; he's represented his country well instead of chasing the biggest paychecks, and I think that it's reasonable for AK to consider that in its selection process if it so chooses. But I also think that he's shown better marathoning form this year than most of the other candidates have.

bikila02 wrote:

There is a extremely good chance he´ll compete in Berlin in an attempt to better the WR. I do believe Berlin, with the new sponsor BMW, has the resources to pay both Makau and Mutais appearance fees. Last year it was Haile and Makau.

troof be told wrote:

That's kind of what I was thinking. Makau & G.M. want to shoot for the WR this fall instead of a medal, so E.M. gets the call for London.

That's what I've been saying. When G Mutai and P Makau weren't named the first time around, guys in their position can (and have to) move on and make other plans. They are no doubt planning around a fall marathon at this point.

Wouldn't be surprised if AK went to them and their managers, tail between legs, to ask about the possibility of them doing the games, and got shut down. At least then they save some face in naming these guys and them saying no.

Go, Makau! Go, Kirui! Go, Kipsang! Go, Mutai(s)!

Avocado's Number wrote:

I've got no complaints about the selections. The panel played the cards they were dealt.

I've got no complaints about the selections, either. And you're right that the selectors played the cards they were dealt.

The problem is that while playing those cards, they also changed the rules repeatedly, spat on everyone in the game, walked away from the table, changed the rules again and are sure to take all the chips no matter what the outcome.

@running_comment wrote:

I've got no complaints about the selections, either. And you're right that the selectors played the cards they were dealt.

The problem is that while playing those cards, they also changed the rules repeatedly, spat on everyone in the game, walked away from the table, changed the rules again and are sure to take all the chips no matter what the outcome.

Pretty much sums it up.

Lots of people could cover 1:02:31 these days. His final time was 2:07:56, but his last-half pace for a full marathon equates to only 2:05:02, very good, but probably not good enough to medal. Geoffrey Mutai ran 2:05:05 a couple of months later on a very tough NY course; he could certainly have covered. And frankly, from what I read the 2nd and 3rd place finishers at the 2011 worlds could have been a lot closer - if not actually challenged - had they not gone tactical to try and get second.

Not sure if London is any indication of what Makau can do. Dropping out was kind've a weird thing for him to do, unless he really had been given a guaranteed place, or was injured (and I haven't read anything to suggest he was). But in his career, he has never run a marathon in over 2:06:14, and he has four runs of 2:05:45 or better, including his 2:03:38 in Berlin in September, a few weeks after Kirui's win at the worlds. He has also run 8 halfs in less than an hour. This guy is only 27, and he has jets. He's also a winner. Other than his 3rd in London 2011, he's won every marathon he's started. Although granted, his performance at this year's Bupa run wasn't sterling.

I am sure that Boston 2012 is no indication of what Mutai can do. As I mentioned earlier, I was in that race, and it was brutal. But in the last couple of years GM has been consistently around 2:05 or lower, including a 2:03:02 in Boston (I guess you missed that w.r.t. PBs, although yeah, the weather was kind've 'special'), as well as that astonishing 2:05:05 in NY - I seem to remember Ryan Hall saying he didn't think that kind of time was possible on that course. And please, November 2011 was not that long ago.

Kirui, on the other hand, has never run a marathon sub 2:05, which Mutai and Makau have both done twice. His times have been a bit over the map. A couple of 2:06:50s, a DNF in last year's Virgin, a few 2:07s, a 2:13 in NY (2010). And other than the worlds, I can find only one other race he has won, Vienna in 2008.

Kirui is a very good runner, but in my opinion he has not shown the tools to cover a very fast pace.

Anyhow, I'll put up $50 that the Ethiopians will take at least two of the marathon medals in London, and that Kirui will place no higher than 5th.

Hell, I'll put up a grand if it'll help get Makau and G Mutai into Berlin this fall. Maybe even Geb - we keep writing this guy off, but I get the sense he has at least one more good run left in him.

Anyhow, this subject is depressing me. I think I'll try to find a Cam Levins thread to terrorize.

Eugene Is the Pits wrote:

What are "there marathons?" Who cares about what they have done in the 2 months of marathoning season so far this year? They destroyed it last year. I think it's great for the Americans that Kenya is so corrupt but it's bad for the sport. Btw, Mutai wanted in on the 10K Trials but was told to take a hike. Take off your blinders and recognize Kenya has the corrupt banana republic that it is.

Totally agree that Kenya is corrupt. Is the current Kiplagat the guy who ran on reform on anti-corruption the last time they picked the committee?

i agree steve. the ethiopians are coming in fresh and well rested. i can see one of them getting gold ahead of a kenyan. ethiopia always brings it when it matters most (olympics, WC).

Wilson Kipsang is a huge threat from what i've seen and read about him though. and i like Kirui's attitude. it'll be a great race for sure.