Rupp will easily dispose of Levins in the olympics.

cptjag wrote:

I'm confused-- is there an actual debate? This is simple: Rupp runs 12:58 and 26:48. No other American (even Lagat) has those credentials at those distances. Also, there's absolutely no indication that-- again, at those distances-- runners slow to a stop at 30, so I think we can expect Rupp to pursue PRs through the next Olympic cycle as well (Lagat set the AR at what, 32?).

Again, my best guess is Rupp has two years left to hit his peak on the track. But it wouldn't kill him to try to run one marathon per year and then have a late track season. Or he could peak for world cross (instead of indoor) and track, two peaks like he's been doing. However, I would be a bit stunned if he wasn't lining up at the Olympic marathon trials in 2016. His PRs will likely be in the 12:45/26:30 range +/- by then. I don't think Salazar will want him to wait until he's 30 to run his first marathon.

Levins 2012 campaign probably isn't over, and he may fare very well at the Olympics, but I don't see how his training is sustainable. See Solinksy, who was probably running 150 miles per week himself in reality. Or McDougal. Or countless others.

That said, I don't see why Rupp couldn't "carry" his peak for a few years, but I doubt he'll be running faster at 32 than at 28 on the track.

running fast races is a lot different then running championship events like the Olympics and World championships. Levins style is sets him up pretty well to advance as does Rupp. It will be interesting to see what happens in the near future.....I hope both stay healthy.

I think Rupp is more capable of running fast times at this time, but in championship races both have a good shot advance if both are able to running 54/53's on the final lap. The fewer Africans in the final the better!

Am I missing something about Cam Levins? Obviously talented, but he doesn't even have the A standard in the 5k does he? Has that 27:27 in the 10k, I think, from P.J. earlier this year-- but that's not a 26:xx. I mean-- suggesting that Rupp will beat Levins is a little like saying Farah will beat Derrick, i.e. of course he will.

rupp just doesn't have levins' raw speed at the end of races. when levins shifts gears, he explodes, not so for rupp, who holds on or gradually picks up the pace (last 100m of 5k at pre). i don't think levins can necessarily run 12:58 or 26:48, but would you really be surprised if he busted out a 13 flat or 13:05, with a hellacious final kick? i think rupp will probably do better in this olympics, but it wouldn't surprise me if levins outkicked him, and even outkicked someone like lagat or bekele, seeing as they are losing speed. there's hype around levins, but for pretty damn good reasons. i haven't seen anyone shift gears like (his last 4-5 races) that in a long time (lagat indoors, yes), no matter what level of competition

"Literally ignorant". Sweet Lord. Comparing a guy who has not yet won a race in a kick against the world's best to a guy who won in the last 150 against a bunch of college kids. Rupp has just walked away from guys with similar PR's to Levins's countless times.

Can we please just appreciate Levins for his amazing accomplishment this weekend and not got moronically overexcited and make completely unrealistic predictions. Right now, Levins has a PR of 27:27 in the 10k and Rupp has a PR of 26:48. There is no argument to make in favor of Levins right now that isn't pie in the sky.

As for the people saying "well in 5 years Levins will be a world beater", I hope you are right. However, I invite you to purchase an economy size clue about sustainable training methods and where guys who trained like Levins have historically ended up.

Rupp is better than Levins in 2012 and will be much better than Levins in 2016 for two reasons. One, Rupp will continue to improve gradually as he has in the past. Two, Levins, currently running ~160 miles per week, will peak very soon and will be slower and probably injured in 2016 due to his running between 180-200 mpw in the next couple of years.

I think Rupp will be at his lifetime peak in 2016.

Clifford K Clavin wrote:

Up and coming wrote:

In 2012, no doubt. 2016 though?

Cam could be at his level in a few years, but I'd say the odds are against him.

Rupp won't be at his 2012 level in 2016. This is obvious to the intelligent. Rupp has an advantage over Levins currently. Rupp would defeat Levins 9 times out of 10, but in a year or two, it could be very close.

You don't know what the F you are talking about. You've been WRONG WRONG WRONG on everything you predict.

hjxtr wrote:

I'll be happy to see the new and improved Levins challenged by someone. He just turned on another gear and ran away from very talented Kenyans in two different races. The Canadian trials should be easy for him(he still has to run those right?), I just hope he doesn't blow his wad before the Olympics.

you said "blow his wad"

cptjag wrote:

Am I missing something about Cam Levins? Obviously talented, but he doesn't even have the A standard in the 5k does he? Has that 27:27 in the 10k, I think, from P.J. earlier this year-- but that's not a 26:xx. I mean-- suggesting that Rupp will beat Levins is a little like saying Farah will beat Derrick, i.e. of course he will.

He has "A" Standard in both.

13:18/27:27. Those may end up as season bests.

Sagarin wrote:

13:18/27:27. Those may end up as season bests.

Ok-- I missed the 13:18; that's a fantastic time, for sure. But still-- where will Levins end up in the trials, 4th, 5th? Worse?

cptjag wrote:

Sagarin wrote:

13:18/27:27. Those may end up as season bests.

Ok-- I missed the 13:18; that's a fantastic time, for sure. But still-- where will Levins end up in the trials, 4th, 5th? Worse?

He's Canadian remember so I think he will be 1st.

Also you guys are completely missing the point people are simply saying that if the Olympic 10k/5k is negatively split and not that fast, it seems that levins has a good chance of staying with rupp if not beating him, given his ferocious kick.

This. Levins vs Rupp is beside the point. The question is, can Levin keep up the volume of his training while being injury free like Rupp has been? Maybe. But I trust Alberto Salazar and his personal experience that high mileage at that age is not good for you in the long run.

markboen wrote:

Rupp is better than Levins in 2012 and will be much better than Levins in 2016 for two reasons. One, Rupp will continue to improve gradually as he has in the past. Two, Levins, currently running ~160 miles per week, will peak very soon and will be slower and probably injured in 2016 due to his running between 180-200 mpw in the next couple of years.

I think Rupp will be at his lifetime peak in 2016.

looks like he did beat someone in the last 150 at least once...

http://www.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?event_id=26&do=videos&video_id=276

So, according to most of those on this thread, Olympic Medals are one by those with the best PR. Then why hae the Olympic Races, if Personal Records are the man factor in who wins.

Did Billy Mills have the best PR in 1964 in the 10,000m field? Did Mo Farah have the best PR in last year's WC final field for 5k?

Time trialing a PR, as Steve Holman who was a constant 3:31-33 guy has how many medals versus a Spanish guy name Ferman Cacho, who had one of the slowest PR's in the Barcelona 1500m final yet won against the World Record Holder with a much better WR PR! That particular WR holder ran 3:28-29 8 days after the games but could not beat Cacho's 48.99 lst 400m in a 1500m.

Let me know when they start handling out Olympic Medals to the PR list, as from what I have seen, usually the medals go to those who close over the last 800 the fastest in the 5k and 10k!

A PR is a great thing, but even in NCAA races the best PR does not win, who had the best seed time this weekend in the NCAA 1500m?

Based on this whole thread, Rupp shoudl certainly beat Lopez Lomong in the 5,000 anytime as Lopez has not broken 13:10. Actually Rupp has a better PR indoors for 3k as well, yet Lopez whipped him like a child indoors this year and will again in the trials 5,000 most likely and at the games in the 5,000.

The people on this thread would say no way, Rupp is a 12:58 guy, then why would Lopez be favored to place higher in the games in the 5,000 than Rupp? Come on PR's mean nothign when the gun goes off, pure speed endurance and using it at the end are really what makes the great ones great!

Bill Mills has a Gold Medal and he was the 2nd slowest guy in the Olympic final in 1964 in Tokyo and the WR holders were in the race, who won - oh the guy with the best kick! OH SHIT!

This is a good assessment, but who's to say that Levins isn't at his peak right now, while Rupp and company have yet to sharpen? The 10,000 is likely to be and up-and-down race, and you know the Africans will throw down a couple of 60 second laps in the middle of the race as they always do. Plus, it will likely take a sub-4:00 last 1600 to be in the hunt, not just a 52 second last 400. It's possible that someone pushes from that far out so that nobody has that 52-53 sec last 400 left in the legs.

Clifford K Clavin wrote:Rupp won't be at his 2012 level in 2016. This is obvious to the intelligent.

When was your chance encounter with the intelligent?

Really Ridiculous wrote:

Bill Mills has a Gold Medal and he was the 2nd slowest guy in the Olympic final in 1964 in Tokyo and the WR holders were in the race, who won - oh the guy with the best kick! OH SHIT!

He ran 50 seconds faster than he ever had before and he was within about 10 seconds of the WR if memory serves me correctly.

So yeah, if levins drops a minute off his 10k time and runs a 26:30 in an Olympic final, then sure the comparison is apt.

Taking one of the greatest upsets in the history of track and field and trying to apply it to 2012 is just silly.

No one in the Olympic games is going to pull a Billy Mills this year.