Great Manchester 10km - Gebrselassie DOMINATES!

Linet Masai sucks. Others people such as Joyce Chepkirui split faster 10k 31:34 for a half marathon.

longjack wrote:

that run says geb can easily go sub 27.

Do you base that on the splits, or the fact that he had the race in the bag at some point, or do you think that's due to the generic road vs track difference?

I think we perhaps need to revisit the conventional wisdom of road times vs track times. Track spikes have seen very little evolution since the 1960s, whereas road racing flats have - as a result the difference in traction and weight of shoes has come down. Road running also offers benefits, such as long straights vs bends. Haile was running from the front all day yesterday, and that must still count for something. Also, of course, conditions on the roads are much more variable, but on a good day like it was in Manchester, I don't think the difference is as great as people perceive it to be.

The difference in 10,000m vs 10k PRs you see in Haile, Bekele and the like, may be partly due to the fact that for them, the main events have always been on the track. I don't think we should just assume that Haile can easily run sub 27 in Hengelo, based on his 27:29 in Manchester. I hope he can.

Looks can be deceiving. Linet Masai has no endurance because she thinks marathon is going the way of retirement.

I saw an ESPN article calling Geb a serious gold medal threat for London. Yes this was a superb run for him, but honestly the ESPN writer reveals their ignorance with a statement like that.

So let's say Geb has a decent chance of making the Ethiopian team. And that alone says he'd be a medal contender. But I don't see him holding up for gold over the last 800 of an Olympic 10K. It's gonna take 53 point (at least!) over the final 400; this after an extended build-up in pace.

Everyone is knocking Geb's speed, but I recall him maxing out a woodway treadmill jut a couple of years ago. It looks like he certainly has some wheels here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSp1r1QhUSY

If he's a glimmer of his former self, he'll start the kick a couple of kilometers out and grind down the competition slowly until he only has to fight with a brave few for a medal. Gold I say is unlikely, but a medal isn't out of the question in my mind.

longjack wrote:

...

but that is not enough, it is going go take sub 26:30 ability for a medal. and you will have to close something like this!

Do you really think this Olympic 10K will be that fast? In 2008 the 10K was won in 27:01, '04 won in 27:05 and '00 27:18.

What factors go into this year's 10K that will have 3 guys under 26:30?

longjack wrote:

that run says geb can easily go sub 27.

but that is not enough, it is going go take sub 26:30 ability for a medal. and you will have to close something like this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KKBPn4mDlo

or this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkoPeM-5S7s

geb on his best day could medal for bronze, only if several contenders have a bad day, combined with his best day which he tends to have on a regular basis.

if geb does well in the 10k, maybe he might do the marathon???

You're an idiot.

wejo wrote:

Here's an interview with Geb that shows the finish:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18135988

That is the most relaxed finish to a 27:29 I've ever seen... which means he CRUSHED it somewhere in the early-middle of the race. If he would have had someone near him in the latter stages of the race, how much more could he have pushed? From the outside, it looks like a LOT was left. Wow.

think about it wrote:

Do you really think this Olympic 10K will be that fast? In 2008 the 10K was won in 27:01, '04 won in 27:05 and '00 27:18.

What factors go into this year's 10K that will have 3 guys under 26:30?

He said it will take 26:30 ABILITY not that the race will be won in 26:30. It may very well be a 14:00 first half followed by a 13:00 second half. That is a lot harder than 13:30x2.

think about it wrote:

longjack wrote:

...

but that is not enough, it is going go take sub 26:30 ability for a medal. and you will have to close something like this!

Do you really think this Olympic 10K will be that fast? In 2008 the 10K was won in 27:01, '04 won in 27:05 and '00 27:18.

What factors go into this year's 10K that will have 3 guys under 26:30?

I still think Geb can go well under 27, but he could have done that in both '04 and '08. In fact he did do that in '04 (26:41 at Hengelo) and '08 (26:51, Hengelo again). The question is whether he has the finishing speed he will need. I don't have a link at hand, by I recall an interview with him after the '08 Olympic 10000 where he talked about how he just didn't have the speed he needed over the last 300 meters.

At any rate, he's my favorite runner and he's still the GOAT and I'd love to see him in the Games.

nice...!

Idontevenknow wrote:

longjack wrote:

that run says geb can easily go sub 27.

but that is not enough, it is going go take sub 26:30 ability for a medal. and you will have to close something like this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KKBPn4mDlo

or this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkoPeM-5S7s

geb on his best day could medal for bronze, only if several contenders have a bad day, combined with his best day which he tends to have on a regular basis.

if geb does well in the 10k, maybe he might do the marathon???

You're an idiot.

You do realize that longjack is ventolin, so yes, he is a bit misguided much of the time.

MAPIV wrote:

You do realize that longjack is ventolin, so yes, he is a bit misguided much of the time.

What makes you think that? Can you see his ip address or something?

Querfeldein wrote

I don't think we should just assume that Haile can easily run sub 27 in Hengelo, based on his 27:29 in Manchester. I hope he can.

I agree, I hope he can, but it's a big ask to expect a 39 year old (even one with HG's ability) to back up only one week later and/or run sub 27/make first three Ethiopian.

The Emperor Strikes Back.