Flanagan wins Lisbon. Lock for Olympic gold?

Didn't Keitany run away from Shobukhova at London? Seems to me she put her head down around 30K and ran out of sight.

Paula is afraid of competition. Is that why she run Vienna with no elite runners?

Paula is freaking quiet. It is so annoying. I love watching her have a bad race where she gets upset with her performance.

awesome Goucher can remain in the shadows and win it all!

synthesizer wrote:

Shobukhova is THE favorite,

Shobukhova has pulled out of her last two races, the NYC Half & the Shamrock, w/hamstring trouble.

BTW, loading all this crapola on Flanagan ("lock on the Olympic gold?") is, well,.... poop! Of course, anything can happen in the Olympics. Did anybody predict we'd get two medals in Athens? But let's not load all this garbage on the Americans running in London.

If you haven't watched Flanagan place 3rd at the World Cross Country Championships, it's on Universal Sports: starts at about 2:05 in the video. One gutsy runner!

http://www.universalsports.com/video/assetid=ee15d1ec-cb9f-4a7a-8b51-8b726fce411c.html

Track fan 1979 wrote:

Shalane - 68:51

wow that really sucks

trafeh's timing of his latest cycle meant that he needed to come "off" at least two weeks prior to gate river, therefore he's basically "down" to 30min 10k shape at this point until he loads back up. ergo, no running high level races for at least a month or so until he's back to "normal" levels. your welcome.

runn wrote:

Men's results? Didn't Trafeh run? Where was he?

Paula will be ready for ALL challengers when the Olympics rolls around!

binderclip wrote:

Shobukhova could probably outrun Keitany all things considered. Take a look at her races in Chicago, her finishing speed tends to help her bring her times down, and last year she ran a 2:18. Shalane's never been tested to that pace, but she is TOUGH. Also, remember that Paula was THE favorite going into Athens in 04, having just ran a 2:15 the year before - and we know how that turned out.

The difference between Shobukhova and Keitany in their last marathon together was 61% of the difference between Geoffrey Mutai and Ryan Hall in their last marathon together. Just as Ryan Hall has a ZERO CHANCE of ever beating Mutai in the near future, given that Mutai is reasonably healthy leading up to and through the race, Shobukhova has a ZERO CHANCE of beating Keitany in the near future. And come on, everyone knows her 2:18 was a once in a lifetime run. People with a 68:55 half marathon PR don't generally make a habit of running 2:18 marathons...

Keitany is the favorite, and she probably was more to worry about from her own Kenyan teammates and from Ethiopians like Dado than she does from Shobhukova.

anonymous basher of geeks wrote:

trafeh's timing of his latest cycle meant that he needed to come "off" at least two weeks prior to gate river, therefore he's basically "down" to 30min 10k shape at this point until he loads back up. ergo, no running high level races for at least a month or so until he's back to "normal" levels. your welcome.

runn wrote:

Men's results? Didn't Trafeh run? Where was he?

Thanks. They talked about him running and I didn't see his name in the results.

Canova picked Shobukhova, but I think the injuries may be a factor. Stating the obvious- the Olympics is about racing and not who has the fastest time coming in. I know that sounds dumb, but look at previous champions, rarely the fastest coming in.

OK, maybe Wanjiru's win will change that trend, but .... That's what makes it exciting and so hard to predict.

(...aka non-anonymous basher of geeks)

anonymous basher of geeks wrote:

trafeh's timing of his latest cycle meant that he needed to come "off" at least two weeks prior to gate river, therefore he's basically "down" to 30min 10k shape at this point until he loads back up. ergo, no running high level races for at least a month or so until he's back to "normal" levels. your welcome.

1. Trafeh could stay in bed for a month, warm up 10 minutes and still break 30.

2. It's "you're."

3. You're welcome.

americuh wrote:

Shobukhova has pulled out of her last two races, the NYC Half & the Shamrock, w/hamstring trouble.

Also her only two scheduled race appearances since one of the other Russian athletes from her group tested positive for HES. Just saying.

Lisbon is a big time race and this is definitely a good result for Shalane. However, there are about a half dozen of the top women who weren't in that race and these are the same women Shalane will face in the OGM. With that said, I think Shalane is amoung that half dozen or so medal contenders.

Vienna will do Paula no good with no elite women competitor her only race before london olympics. Paula is only hurting herself by not facing a competitive field befor London.

I do think Shalane and Kara will be in the mix for the podium. The way I see one of them managing to win is Keitany and Shubukova pushing each other enough that they both falter and let someone else in.

For Paula I see it as all or nothing. She's going to go for it to be the hometown hero and either adrenaline etc. pulls her through for the victory or she blows up, drops out and it may possibly be her last marathon.

OP is crazy or trolling. No one has ever been a lock for Olympic gold six months out in any event. Too much can happen.

Shalane, however, is very talented, hard-working, and tough-minded, and ran a solid race in Lisbon. She certainly has a shot at a medal in London, but lots of things have to fall right for it to happen.