Does Rupp have any realistic chance of beating Lagat this weekend?

silentbutdeadly wrote:

Blood in the water.

Lagat ain't losing. Not a chance.

Childish Gambino wrote:

feeling sick wrote:

News flash: Galen Rupp ran completely alone in his 8:09. Methinks he could have gone a little faster with someone pushing him.

Exactly, same argument applies for both and I would say Rupp could have run faster in a race like Farah got in. Lagat had guys breating down his freaking neck, I don't think he has another 9 freaking seconds in him, give me a break.

+1 for username CG.

rupp and lagat are near equal now. infact rupp looks the aerobically stronger of the two ,while lagat still has the better speed.

its a toss up. give me odds and i bet rupp.

Rupp has no finishing speed. Lagat will win.

why all this guessing?

THEY ARE ENTERED IN DIFFERENT RACES. BERNIE 3K AND RUPP 1500

as it is though wrote:

why all this guessing?

THEY ARE ENTERED IN DIFFERENT RACES. BERNIE 3K AND RUPP 1500

Rupp is entered and declared in both the 3000 and the 1500. The 3000 is on Saturday and the 1500 on Sunday so it is likely Rupp will race the 3000 and then they'll decide whether or not to run the 1500. I imagine the primary objective for the 1500 is just to experience pack running tactics at race pace. Recall that Rupp got tripped up a couple times last year and needs to work on staying out of trouble.

Rupp should try to sit on Lagat. If he leads he's going to lose. Why does no one ever draft on Lagat? The last time US guys did this was USATF 1500 when Webb shared pacing duties with Bernard and outkicked him at the end. It also happened at the Reebok Grand Prix that year. Lagat is beatable if you find a way to draft on him or someone else. He wins so much because he does no work.

We need to remember that Rupp had a sinus infection going into the indoor 2-mile A.R. - while it may not have affected Rupp the same way it would others, no one is 100% when they are sick.

PrizePurse wrote:

We need to remember that Rupp had a sinus infection going into the indoor 2-mile A.R. - while it may not have affected Rupp the same way it would others, no one is 100% when they are sick.

We also need to remember that AlSal has a prepackaged excuse EVERY SINGLE TIME that Rupp races.

I'd like to see Rupp run the 1500.

In regard to Rupp beating Bernie. I hate to say it, but they are getting awfully close to equal. I think Rupp has the slight edge now.

aldsfjad wrote:

Rupp should try to sit on Lagat. If he leads he's going to lose. Why does no one ever draft on Lagat? The last time US guys did this was USATF 1500 when Webb shared pacing duties with Bernard and outkicked him at the end. It also happened at the Reebok Grand Prix that year. Lagat is beatable if you find a way to draft on him or someone else. He wins so much because he does no work.

This ^ is a good point. You must have watched the same races I did.

bangalangadanga wrote:

I'd like to see Rupp run the 1500.

In regard to Rupp beating Bernie. I hate to say it, but they are getting awfully close to equal. I think Rupp has the slight edge now.

Doesn't it depend on the race? he does not have the edge at 3k yet (and probably not 5k either), and certainly does NOT have the edge in a tactical kicker's race. Those are the facts until proven otherwise.

A quality Rupp v Lagat debate.

Last year it was all about Rupp v Solinsky and where the hell is he. Nowhere. And where is Rupp? Building on his 26:48 and racing against the big dogs. Once Kip gets too old it will be Rupp v TheNextBigThing. Love AlSal and love his work. Consistency and incremental improvement.

Maybe the rest of his career is all just a ploy.

average healthy male runner wrote:

I think he has a chance because his recent 8:09 AR is slightly better than Lagat's 13:07 record. Regardless, it should be a good last 1-2 laps - I'm not even sure whom to root for anymore.

The only problem with comparing who has a faster time is it does not matter in this context. This is going to be a tactical race no matter what, which, basically, removes time from the equation, and if you remove time (time = aerobic strength) Rupp has no chance. Even if it was a paced race that started out fast from the gun, Lagat would still be there at the end, and, if you compare who finished faster over the last 200m of their previous AR, Lagat still wins.

Therefore, Bernie wins.