Derrick, Rupp and Lagat Will Represent the US in the Olympic 5K

I'm surprised people are sleeping on Ryan Hill. The dude is a monster. He's in the same class as Derrick, German, Puskedra, Lowe, etc. He's run the fastest 3000 ever for an American collegiate. Think about that. Faster than Rupp, Ritz, Teg, Solinsky, etc, etc. 7:43.

I think the tiers for 5000 go:

Lagat/Rupp

Solinsky/Ritz (a hair below the top two due to injuries, less consistency)

Teg/Bumbalough/Derrick/Hill/Estrada

The only person outside of these names that might possibly have a shot at a 5000 slot is Evan Jager. Who knows what's going on with him.

Also, I just don't think Derrick has the raw speed to qualify in the 5000. His best bet is definitely the 10,000. Notice that all the other guys on my list have some serious speed. Well, actually, I'm not sure Ritz does, but he's proven he can run fast enough that it doesn't matter (12:56). The others are all under 4, and most are way under.

get it stohli wrote:

I'm surprised people are sleeping on Ryan Hill. The dude is a monster. He's in the same class as Derrick, German, Puskedra, Lowe, etc. He's run the fastest 3000 ever for an American collegiate. Think about that. Faster than Rupp, Ritz, Teg, Solinsky, etc, etc. 7:43.

Lots of people get there names into record books once or even a few times, but are just flashes in the pan. Only Rupp is Rupp, none of the people you named has been in his class, although Sol is closest.

?? I didn't put Hill in Rupp's class - just Lagat. Then Ritz and Solinsky. Then a gap to the others.

Hill's 7:43 = 13:21, I suspect that Estrada is slightly faster over 5K, but Hill would fare better in any kicking scenario.

Is it safe to say that Webb is too old, too tired, too effed in the head to make the 1500 or 5000 team? Yes!

Joe Mama wrote:

dude did you see how USAFT was run last year, its won in 13:20's at best 13:1x... he can do it

1. Lagat- 13:23.06 (13.4, 27.7, 56.79, 1:56.00, 2:55.90, 3:42.1(1500), 3:57.80)

2. Solinsky- 13:23.65 (3:58.57)

3. Rupp- 13:25.52 (4:00.??)

7. Derrick 13:47.28

8. Hill 13:47.59

This is off a 4:40 opening 4 laps. I don't believe CD has ever broken 4-minutes in the mile.

CD and RH have improved since last year, but can they sustain the pace that was run last summmer at nationals?

With no rabbits in the race and new American Diego Estrada loving to lead it will be very interesting. And lets not forget GF. I believe he will be in the mix at the Olympic Trials.

oldoldrunner wrote:

1. Lagat- 13:23.06 (13.4, 27.7, 56.79, 1:56.00, 2:55.90, 3:42.1(1500), 3:57.80)

...

CD and RH have improved since last year, but can they sustain the pace that was run last summmer at nationals?

With no rabbits in the race and new American Diego Estrada loving to lead it will be very interesting. And lets not forget GF. I believe he will be in the mix at the Olympic Trials.

You had me until you said, "...GF." It would be nice but there is now three years worth of evidence that is 100% in the opposite direction.

Sad but true.

get it stohli wrote:

Teg/Bumbalough/Derrick/Hill/Estrada

These runners are nowhere near the same level. Ryan Hill's 7:43 was great, but is nowhere near the level of Teg's 8:07/12:58, and Estrada shouldn't be in that group either. Frankly, they shouldn't be ahead of Jager either.

Obviously Teg has historically been way better, but in the last year he's been about Bumbaloughs level. I would amend his list to:

Rupp/Lagat/Ritz/Solinsky*

Teg**/Bumbalough

Jäger***/Derrick/Hill/Estrada

*if he returns to form after injury

**would be in first elite group if he returns to 2007-2009 form

***enormously talented. Came back from injury and ran a couple decent 1500s but not much since. Wouldn't be surprised if he ran a 13:10 or if he only managed 13:35. Would love to see him in the mix.

Dude, when did take run those time? We're talking about 2012, not 2009. I'll accept the above posters grouping though. Not sure there's any gap between his second and third groups though. I'd like to see Bumbalough win something against these guys before I concede he's better than say Derrick. And not when he's getting pulled along.

I don't care if Teg is hurt until 4 weeks before the Trials. He is in a different class than Estrada and Hill.

get it stohli wrote:

Dude, when did take run those time? We're talking about 2012, not 2009. I'll accept the above posters grouping though. Not sure there's any gap between his second and third groups though. I'd like to see Bumbalough win something against these guys before I concede he's better than say Derrick. And not when he's getting pulled along.

It is an Olympic year...runners who have not run well or have been hurt seem to be able to get it together in the Olympic year.

Look back in time and see what Lassen Viren did between the 1972 Olympics and the 1976 Olympics. You'll find he did nothing, yet he has 4 gold medals.

I hope so.

hahaha.

Derrick is close, but I agree with those who say that counting on all three sub 13 guys to be off their game is probably too much for him to ask for. Add to that that any number of milers could pick him off in a tactical race, and he's probably a year away from contending for a spot on the 5K team.

smd wrote:

Joe Mama wrote:

now i am not sure about this either, but dont the rules allow you to run any pace you want while on the track??? So, for example, if Derrick wanted to run an even pace and bring him self to a 13:19 just like he did, I think the USAFT would not object??? So, i guess he can make the team after all... Run your own race idiot.

You're right, that's definitely the most likely scenario. A 13:19 guy will head out on his own time trial ahead of what could be four sub-13:00 guys and Rupp. It happens so often it's gotten boring.

Haha, have you ever seen a race 'joe mama' ?

I have a real problem with Rupp doubling. Why doesn't he follow Mo Farah's example? We're only speculating but Rupp, IMHO, should focus on the 10,000 meters.

IT'S FEBRUARY.

EOT.

In a mid 13:20's paced race, I would bet on CD's former teammate Heath over him. Chris has strength and can surge well over the last 2000, but will be handicapped by his relatively weak kick in a national championship race off a slow pace. He's smart enough to know that once he is in the big pond, the 10K is more suited to his talents.