In 2009, he was the world 14th fastest at 10000 and 5th fastest at 5000. His 5000 PR would have made him #8 fastest last year.
It should not be difficult to say where he should be, and marathon jogging should not be in the conversation.
I don't know if he can quite medal at 5000 with Lagat and Farah in the race, but he can be in the hunt.
***** EPO Tucson EPO Albuquerque *****
does anyone know what ritz had attached to his shoes at the trials. there were gizmos on both his left shoe and right.
Waiting so long between marathons is holding Ritz back. Each time after a marathon he stops, and then starts over from the beginning, again and again. The long off times in between give him no time to build from one to another. Rather than being a marathon runner at Houston, he looked like a track guy running a marathon. I don't mean to be too hard on him though. He ran well. Only a minute faster and he would have won the race, which he is well able to do.
Well J.R., you touch upon an interesting point, as it relates to the women's team performance in the coming London Olympics. The Lydiard 'big periodization' advocate may indeed think it's possible that Desi could upstage the amazing Shalane, should she go long now and focus solely on peaking for the long race, while Shalane spreads herself thin trying to get a mini-peak in for the track trials.
Zat0pek wrote:
If you're in "the shape of your life" and you can't (1) make the U.S. team and (2) even crack the U.S. all-time top 13, that's not the event for you.
I'm in the shape of my life in the 1500 but I can't make the U.S. team or run 3:34. Is that event not for me?
I think back to the golden league race ritz was 3rd w/ AR and he has the natural speed and with all the marathon training he's done, the strength to run with anyone in the world. possible medal, if not gold in London.
Leopardly wrote:
Zat0pek wrote:If you're in "the shape of your life" and you can't (1) make the U.S. team and (2) even crack the U.S. all-time top 13, that's not the event for you.
I'm in the shape of my life in the 1500 but I can't make the U.S. team or run 3:34. Is that event not for me?
If you can go, say, 1:43.xx in the 800, then yes.
Ritz missed the first six months of this year--no running, no swimming, no biking. Given that, he ran very well on Saturday. However, his real event at this point is the 10,000. He ran 27:38 when he was 21. His 27:22 came in a championship race in very warm weather in Berlin, after he had been working with Salazar for less than two months, and he came in sixth, but I think if he had more confidence and pushed earlier, he might have been able to claim fourth. That was followed by 12:56 and 60 flat. I think he was ready then for sub 27. He has now had a great buildup, and he will be running very fast workouts. So, if he can stay healthy--always a big if--and train for several months on the track with Rupp and Farah, he can make an impact at London. Can he medal? Well, he can't win, because there will be several people together at the bell, and they'll be at least one he won't be able to outkick, and maybe none he will be able to outkick. However, if it is a sub 27 race, and the field thins down, it's possible. In a 5000 there's no chance--too many people will be around who can close much faster than he can. Also, I thought Zatopek's post was excellent.
How much did this past weekend's effort and the specific training put him behind for track success? To Ritz's credit, he put everything out on the course. The effect on the body when you continue to push as your body starts to fail cannot be underestimated.
There is also a reason 10k runners train differently. It is good that he has the base, but what effect will the different type of speed work have when he is able to start focusing on the 10k? There is a reason Rupp didn't run the trials.
I think you may be right that the marathon isn't his thing, but it may be due to muscle cramping that he can't seem to tame rather than not a big enough gas tank (unless you are assuming the cramping is a result of the "not big enough gas tank").It's too bad and a bit surprising to me...I always knew he would get under 13 for 5,000 and still believe he has a sub 27:00 10,000 in him, but I figured he could get 2:06 or 2:07 or even better in the marathon. So far, it's just not been his race.
Zat0pek wrote:
I thought of a few things over the weekend that should end the discussion about him and the marathon vs. the shorter distances:
● Ritz is (as far as I can remember, at least) the only current U.S. distance runner (I ignore Lagat for reasons like his EPO “A” positive and hiding his U.S. citizenship in ‘04 that I won't keep repeating) who's won TWO medals in international championships: (1) Bronze at Junior World Cross and (2) Bronze at the World Half-Marathon Championships (in an outstanding 60:00 in the rain). Granted, those races aren't as deep or prominent as Olys, track WCs or Senior World Cross, but they also aren't subject to the three-athlete limit, either.
● Ritz's significant records are at 5,000 (12:56 AR) and 10,000 (27:38 CR). He also has the fastest U.S. 10,000 ever run in a championship race (27:22).
● He’s 3rd on the all-time U.S. 5,000 list, 6th on the all-time U.S. list at 10,000 (from his 27:22 at the WC’s; however, but his 12:56 and 60:00 clearly bracket near- or sub-27:00 potential but he hasn't run a rabbited non-championship 10,000 since his race against Webb at Stanford in 2006) and 2nd on the all-time U.S. half-marathon list. He's also 4th on the all-time U.S. list at two miles behind Teg (8:07), Webb and Kennedy, but it's actually basically a statistical dead heat between Webb (8:11.48), Kennedy (8:11.59) and Ritz (8:11.74) for second as all are within a .26 second spread.
● Multiple U.S. titles in Cross
● Multiple U.S. teams at 10,000 and World Cross.
● He had a winning record against 26:48 10,000 performer Rupp prior to his move to the marathon and de-emphasis on the 10,000.
Now, contrast that with Ritz's marathon credentials:
● Never won anything, even against U.S.-only competition, and has no records of any kind.
● Even when he was, by all accounts, in the best shape of his life and set a PR, he couldn't make the 2012 U.S. Olympic marathon team, despite making multiple U.S. WC and Oly teams at 10,000. Granted, he did make the U.S. marathon team for Beijing.
● His 2:09:55 PR puts him just 14th on the all-time U.S. performer list (13th if you disregard Kempainen's wind-aided 2:08:47 at Boston) behind Hall, Khannouchi, Bob Kempainen, Salazar, Dick Beardsley, Abdi, Greg Meyer, Meb, Bill Rodgers, Ron Tabb, David Morris, Jerry Lawson, Ken Martin, and Alan Culpepper.
● His 2:09:55 PR is just 33rd on the all-time U.S. performance list, tied with Bill Rodgers' 2:09:55 AR from Boston in '75.
● After multiple attempts, best two marathons are 2:09:55 (under nearly perfect conditions) and 2:10:00, times routinely beaten by runners at nowhere near Ritz's level from 5,000 (12:56) to the half-marathon (60:00); U.S. examples include Bill Rodgers (2:09:27/28:04/13:42) and even Alberto Salazar (2:08:13/27:25/13:11).
● While he was the highest-placing American in Beijing (9th) it took one of his best races to just barely beat Hall's worst race (by far), and his 9th is diminished somewhat by the three-athlete limit in the Olys. Majors can be even deeper than the Olys.
It's simple: Ritz doesn't have the gas tank for the marathon. That's not a knock, that's a conclusion based on objective data from multiple marathons over a period of at least five years. Some guys who are aerobic beasts just don't have the frame and/or gas tank for the marathon. Ritz is one of those guys. Not a criticism. The guy's a beast, just not a marathon beast. He's very good at the marathon but not nearly as good as he is from 5000 to the half-marathon.
I understand that his chances to medal at 10,000 are slim and none, but his chances to medal at the marathon are none and none. If you're in "the shape of your life" and you can't (1) make the U.S. team and (2) even crack the U.S. all-time top 13, that's not the event for you, and you have even less of a shot on the world stage than you do at 10,000.
Hall was right to move to test the marathon early in his career (though as I've said, I wish he hadn't stayed there exclusively like he did) and that test was successful. But Ritz's marathon experiment should be over. It just ain't there like it is from 5000 to the half-marathon and cross.
Zat0pek wrote:
I thought of a few things over the weekend that should end the discussion about him and the marathon vs. the shorter distances:
● Ritz is (as far as I can remember, at least) the only current U.S. distance runner (I ignore Lagat for reasons like his EPO “A” positive and hiding his U.S. citizenship in ‘04 that I won't keep repeating) who's won TWO medals in international championships: (1) Bronze at Junior World Cross and (2) Bronze at the World Half-Marathon Championships (in an outstanding 60:00 in the rain). Granted, those races aren't as deep or prominent as Olys, track WCs or Senior World Cross, but they also aren't subject to the three-athlete limit, either.
● Ritz's significant records are at 5,000 (12:56 AR) and 10,000 (27:38 CR). He also has the fastest U.S. 10,000 ever run in a championship race (27:22).
● He’s 3rd on the all-time U.S. 5,000 list, 6th on the all-time U.S. list at 10,000 (from his 27:22 at the WC’s; however, but his 12:56 and 60:00 clearly bracket near- or sub-27:00 potential but he hasn't run a rabbited non-championship 10,000 since his race against Webb at Stanford in 2006) and 2nd on the all-time U.S. half-marathon list. He's also 4th on the all-time U.S. list at two miles behind Teg (8:07), Webb and Kennedy, but it's actually basically a statistical dead heat between Webb (8:11.48), Kennedy (8:11.59) and Ritz (8:11.74) for second as all are within a .26 second spread.
● Multiple U.S. titles in Cross
● Multiple U.S. teams at 10,000 and World Cross.
● He had a winning record against 26:48 10,000 performer Rupp prior to his move to the marathon and de-emphasis on the 10,000.
Now, contrast that with Ritz's marathon credentials:
● Never won anything, even against U.S.-only competition, and has no records of any kind.
● Even when he was, by all accounts, in the best shape of his life and set a PR, he couldn't make the 2012 U.S. Olympic marathon team, despite making multiple U.S. WC and Oly teams at 10,000. Granted, he did make the U.S. marathon team for Beijing.
● His 2:09:55 PR puts him just 14th on the all-time U.S. performer list (13th if you disregard Kempainen's wind-aided 2:08:47 at Boston) behind Hall, Khannouchi, Bob Kempainen, Salazar, Dick Beardsley, Abdi, Greg Meyer, Meb, Bill Rodgers, Ron Tabb, David Morris, Jerry Lawson, Ken Martin, and Alan Culpepper.
● His 2:09:55 PR is just 33rd on the all-time U.S. performance list, tied with Bill Rodgers' 2:09:55 AR from Boston in '75.
● After multiple attempts, best two marathons are 2:09:55 (under nearly perfect conditions) and 2:10:00, times routinely beaten by runners at nowhere near Ritz's level from 5,000 (12:56) to the half-marathon (60:00); U.S. examples include Bill Rodgers (2:09:27/28:04/13:42) and even Alberto Salazar (2:08:13/27:25/13:11).
● While he was the highest-placing American in Beijing (9th) it took one of his best races to just barely beat Hall's worst race (by far), and his 9th is diminished somewhat by the three-athlete limit in the Olys. Majors can be even deeper than the Olys.
It's simple: Ritz doesn't have the gas tank for the marathon. That's not a knock, that's a conclusion based on objective data from multiple marathons over a period of at least five years. Some guys who are aerobic beasts just don't have the frame and/or gas tank for the marathon. Ritz is one of those guys. Not a criticism. The guy's a beast, just not a marathon beast. He's very good at the marathon but not nearly as good as he is from 5000 to the half-marathon.
I understand that his chances to medal at 10,000 are slim and none, but his chances to medal at the marathon are none and none. If you're in "the shape of your life" and you can't (1) make the U.S. team and (2) even crack the U.S. all-time top 13, that's not the event for you, and you have even less of a shot on the world stage than you do at 10,000.
Hall was right to move to test the marathon early in his career (though as I've said, I wish he hadn't stayed there exclusively like he did) and that test was successful. But Ritz's marathon experiment should be over. It just ain't there like it is from 5000 to the half-marathon and cross.
I agree with everything you said, except I think the reason he doesn't have the engine is because he can't string together a long enough streak of healthy mileage to be strong enough for the marathon. I think if he can stay healthy for a year straight and run a marathon he can finally start reaching his real potential. For now, however, we'll have to settle for some stellar 10k races this year.
northern boy wrote:
There has always been more money in the marathon than on the track.
Explain this to Usain Bolt who gets $250,000-$500,000 a race, or Mo Greene or Asafa Powell who got $100,000 a race in the past. Also people like El Guerrouj.
The premier events in the Olympics have always been the 100 meters and the mile/1500.
The marathon has long been a crap event where good athletes go to die. The only nonrunners that have said anything to me in recent years about a marathon were those complaining about having to sit through a stupid marathon on TV to get to see Usain Bolt.
Nobody cares about marathons except the slow joggers doing them.
coach d wrote:
Explain this to Usain Bolt who gets $250,000-$500,000 a race, or Mo Greene or Asafa Powell who got $100,000 a race in the past. Also people like El Guerrouj.
The premier events in the Olympics have always been the 100 meters and the mile/1500.
The marathon has long been a crap event where good athletes go to die. The only nonrunners that have said anything to me in recent years about a marathon were those complaining about having to sit through a stupid marathon on TV to get to see Usain Bolt.
Nobody cares about marathons except the slow joggers doing them.
I noticed you didn't talk about the 5K/10K. That is because you know that there is more money in the marathon for an appearance fee/prize money than there is for a 5k/10k appearance fee/prize money.
It may be different in sprinting or in the 1500, but there is no doubt that there is more money in the marathon for ritz than the 10k.
If the marathon is just "a crap event where good athletes go to die" then why are the east africans (who are mostly in this for the money) moving up to the marathon at younger and younger ages now?
From afar, I "blame" Ritz not fully excelling at 26.2 on 2 things: Salazar's unproven 262 coaching & injuries. I do not blame Salazar on the injuries. But he stated having Ritz in great form, yet his immense talent still hit a major wall at mile 18. That's really pretty early.
ttc wrote:
From afar, I "blame" Ritz not fully excelling at 26.2 on 2 things: Salazar's unproven 262 coaching & injuries. I do not blame Salazar on the injuries. But he stated having Ritz in great form, yet his immense talent still hit a major wall at mile 18. That's really pretty early.
Here's Ritz's full marathon history:
2006 NYC (debut) 2:14:01
2007 Oly Trials 2:11:06
2008 Beijing Olys 2:11:59
2009 London 2:10:00
2010 NYC 2:12:33
2012 Oly Trials 2:09:55
Throwing out his debut, his average of five marathons over the span of about four years and two months is 2:11:06. His top-3 average is 2:10:20. Including his debut gives him 2:11:33 for six marathons over the span of about five years and two or three months.
This is not the resume of guy who is made for the marathon when you contrast his fantastic performances between 5,000 and the half-marathon. Ritz is simply a totally different, and much, much better, runner below the marathon.
Don't bother arguing with coach d. He's an idiot.
Ritz - at least he's better than Tadese at the marathon (and Tadese supposedly has one of the best "gas tanks" ever).
Regarding the assertion that Ritz "would never be good at the marathon under Salazar":
I'm no Salazar/Nike/Oregon Project groupie or lackey, but objectively looking at Ritz's marathon history that I posted above, I see no discernible difference between Ritz's marathon performance under Hudson and his performance under Salazar.
His best under Hudson was 2:10:00 and his best under Salazar was 2:09:55, essentially identical times. Throwing out his debut, his worst under Hudson was 2:11:59 (in what may have been his best performance, though not his best time), and his worst under Salazar was 2:12:33 when he was (again) coming back off of injury, times which are also very comparable.
Basically, under both Hudson and AlSal, his worst was 2:12 and his best was 2:10. Even a great coach can only develop whatever is there, and from what I can see, Hudson and AlSal got nearly identical performances from Ritz.
BOTTOM LINE: Ritz had (1) two different coaches who (2) got nearly identical results from Ritz in (3) six marathons (4) run on five different courses (5) over the span of five-plus years. That's a good enough data sample to examine objectively and say pretty definitively, "Nope, that boy just ain't the same runner at the marathon that he is from 5,000 to the half-marathon and cross. Time to go back and dance with the distances that brung ya."
What's makes the 4th place finish even harder is that he finished behind a dope fiend's friend.