Ryan Hall doesn't believe a 2 hour marathon is outside of his own capabilities

pollyparrot wrote:

I think this is sort of like the thread about what percentage of trials runners think they have a chance to make the team.

It divided up between those people who think that on a given day anything is possible and that hope keeps them trying to get better, and those people who have a strictly realistic view of their possibilities based on past performance and racing conditions.

I think that both approaches will keep you trying to get better, but if you are a 2:08 marathon runner trying to maximize your potential I think you are more likely to do so by shooting for a 2:06 than by believing that a 2:00 is possible if everything works right.

I'd put it as a syllogism. IF a 2 flat is possible for anyone, then the only people currently in the conversation to be near that are the world's best marathoners. Anybody on the planet who has run under 2:05 is among the world's best marathoners. Ryan Hall is one of those guys.

So it may be impossible for anybody. And it's less likely for Hall than for a few Kenyans who have run even faster. But unless the premise is itself foolish, he's got more of a right to this level of crazy talk as almost anybody on the planet, or any other American.

While I personally don't believe that Ryan will break 2 hours in the marathon, I don't think there's anything wrong with him saying so. Positivity is a powerful thing. Lofty goals will help him from becoming complacent. He's not "crazy" like some suggest, he's just not ruling anything out.

Nah, he's crazy.

gamecock wrote:

I'd put it as a syllogism. IF a 2 flat is possible for anyone, then the only people currently in the conversation to be near that are the world's best marathoners. Anybody on the planet who has run under 2:05 is among the world's best marathoners. Ryan Hall is one of those guys.

So it may be impossible for anybody. And it's less likely for Hall than for a few Kenyans who have run even faster. But unless the premise is itself foolish, he's got more of a right to this level of crazy talk as almost anybody on the planet, or any other American.

Ryan Hall is consistently 2 minutes behind the world's best marathoners. Therefore, Hall talking about breaking 2:00 is about as sensible as Mutai talking about breaking 1:58.

Totally absurd if you ask me.

So everybody that has ever beaten you will always beat you? Kind funny how that works out. No matter how much better you get, your competition always improves by the same amount. Makes racing kind of pointless.

Another lack of data point wrote:

Ryan Hall is consistently 2 minutes behind the world's best marathoners. Therefore, Hall talking about breaking 2:00 is about as sensible as Mutai talking about breaking 1:58.

Totally absurd if you ask me.

The breakdown wrote:

So everybody that has ever beaten you will always beat you? Kind funny how that works out. No matter how much better you get, your competition always improves by the same amount. Makes racing kind of pointless.

Another lack of data point wrote:

Ryan Hall is consistently 2 minutes behind the world's best marathoners. Therefore, Hall talking about breaking 2:00 is about as sensible as Mutai talking about breaking 1:58.

Totally absurd if you ask me.

My post does not imply your comment, "So everybody..."

Must suck to be too stupid to understand something so obvious.

The breakdown wrote:

So everybody that has ever beaten you will always beat you? Kind funny how that works out. No matter how much better you get, your competition always improves by the same amount. Makes racing kind of pointless.

Uh.....his point still stands despite your tangent on the point of racing people who are faster than you. Hall saying it's possible for him to break 2:00 in the marathon is as insane as Mutai saying it's possible for him to break 1:58. This is like Andrew Wheating saying it's possible for him to break 3:22 in the 1500, or Galen Rupp saying it's possible for him to break 25:50 in the 10K. Completely and utterly delusional...

Tim Tebow has as good a chance of breaking 2 hours as Ryan Hall.

like a gauge dimension?

Consider This wrote:

Didn't Mike Boit run a 3:28 mile in New Zealand?

It was Steve Scott. 3:31.25.

Yeah, I don't think there is any way he will ever come close to breaking 2 hours but without that attitude he would have never been close to where he is now.

Was that even English?

quote]TrackCoach wrote:

I don't think there is anyone on the scene right now or in the pipeline who can break 2 hours, in fact I don't think it is going to happen for a very-very long time. Someone who is fully committed to the marathon, but has the track speed to run a sub 26:50 10Ks and consistent 58x halfs has the capability to run a 2:02.

I think in 2005 when KB won the WXC long and Short, ran 12:40 in the 5K and 27:17 in the 10K, I think he could have run around 2:02 if he adjusted his training for it. Sammy was heading towards a 2:02 in my opinion if he could have maintained his focus. Sammy ran a 2:06 solo in 78 degree temps and on a course with sharp turns and won Chicago in 2:05 when he wasn't fully fit. Both of these guys were only in their mid 20s when they were at the top of there game and perhaps that's when we could have seen a 2:02 marathon. - The 2:03s that we are seeing is about where the marathon should be, to be in line with other events, but a sub 2 hour marathon would have to be someone better than Samuel Wanjiru and Kenenisa Bekele, which kind of makes the whole discussion kind of silly when you really think about.

Hall's 59x half marathon from a couple of years ago say's a 2:05 might be in his future, a 2:04 is not out of the relm of possibilities, a 2:03 is doubtful, a 2:02 is highly unlikely and a sub 2 hour marathon is absolutely impossible.[/quote]

malmo, is there anything at all to that analysis? That is, would changing the toe angle, the overstriding, the stride angle, help? No sane person thinks that Ritz would drop ten minutes. But it seems credible that he could drop significant time.

So, you agree with the syllogism, but you believe that the second premise (under 2:05 puts you in the conversation) should be limited to folks below, what? 2:04? I think it's more likely that the first premise (2:00 is possible at all) is the false one. Unless you want to suggest that only the current WR holder or some other very small field has a chance (which I think makes the outcome even less likely), Hall seems to fit in. Think of having a BCS playoff. A 4-team playoff will almost certainly give you the "best" team in the field. 16 is probably unneccessary. But an 8-team field is the most likely to get everybody with a chance (even Boise). In this terrible analogy, Hall is Boise. Or perhaps Arkansas.

Another lack of data point wrote:

gamecock wrote:

I'd put it as a syllogism. IF a 2 flat is possible for anyone, then the only people currently in the conversation to be near that are the world's best marathoners. Anybody on the planet who has run under 2:05 is among the world's best marathoners. Ryan Hall is one of those guys.

So it may be impossible for anybody. And it's less likely for Hall than for a few Kenyans who have run even faster. But unless the premise is itself foolish, he's got more of a right to this level of crazy talk as almost anybody on the planet, or any other American.

Ryan Hall is consistently 2 minutes behind the world's best marathoners. Therefore, Hall talking about breaking 2:00 is about as sensible as Mutai talking about breaking 1:58.

Totally absurd if you ask me.

jjjjjjjjjjj wrote:

malmo, is there anything at all to that analysis? That is, would changing the toe angle, the overstriding, the stride angle, help?

Wow, did you just ask that?

He doesn't believe a 2 hr marathon is out of his capbabilities?

Well, a gold medal is.

Unyil he can suck it up and go after the break aways, he will never get the gold.

Darnell wrote:

jjjjjjjjjjj wrote:

malmo, is there anything at all to that analysis? That is, would changing the toe angle, the overstriding, the stride angle, help?

Wow, did you just ask that?

I hear you. Either a) unbelievably naive or b) just enjoys getting malmo all worked up so he/she can read malmo's latest passionately insulting tirade.

I'm hoping for b)

Hall said If God shows up I'll run 2 hours

Gerry Lindgren replied Hey Hall send me a ticket to Houston.