Update on Ritz going into trials?

Think of it not a pacer really, but a legit athlete who will go out at 1:04 for the first half.

If Rupp goes out hard the field has no choice but to follow as he could in theory run away with the win, based on his 1:00:30 debut half marathon.

Someone of Rupps caliber could, based off his prs, debut in 2:08 so Hall and Meb would mark Rupp and not allow him to get away.

I could definitely see Salazar setting Rupp up to run 16 - 18 miles at a fast clip for a workout and DNFing (and benefiting Ritz his training partner).

If Ritz is in good shape this strategy could play out to his advantage.

Yeah, maybe, but it is difficult to imagine Galen leading unless he's planning to drop out. Galen doesn't like to lead.

Rupp will drop around 18 after keeping things fast in an attempt to soften up Hall and Meb specifically. On the Houston course the pace has to be fast for Ritz to make the team. Anything slower than 65 at the half and Ritz gets 4th or 5th.

I was just thinking this. Rupp makes it a fast race which plays to the hands of the proven marathoners: Hall, Meb, Ritz. Who else is really prepared to handle mile 20+ after a 1:04 first half? Sure, there are others who can handle that pace through 13, 15, 18... but how many are proven to finish the final 10k after that pace?

Ritz is the fastest 5,000 meter runner in the field, the fastest 10,000 meter runner (on the assumption Rupp is there but will drop out), the fastest ten miler, the second fastest half-marathoner. Why exactly is a pace slower than 65 disadvantageous to him?

TLW wrote:

Rupp will drop around 18 after keeping things fast in an attempt to soften up Hall and Meb specifically. On the Houston course the pace has to be fast for Ritz to make the team. Anything slower than 65 at the half and Ritz gets 4th or 5th.

I won't answer whether a slow pace is a disadvantage for Ritz. However, Ritz IS NOT the fastest 5000 meter runner in the field, despite having the fastest pb. Ritz recently ran 13:49. Maybe he could run 13:25 or so on race day, but his 12:56 has little relevance at this point.

Your life is on the line. There will be a 5,000 meter race on January 14 with every runner who will be at the Trials. Would you honestly pick anyone other than Ritz?

Jesse was indeed a friend wrote:

I won't answer whether a slow pace is a disadvantage for Ritz. However, Ritz IS NOT the fastest 5000 meter runner in the field, despite having the fastest pb. Ritz recently ran 13:49. Maybe he could run 13:25 or so on race day, but his 12:56 has little relevance at this point.

Montesquieu wrote:

Your life is on the line. There will be a 5,000 meter race on January 14 with every runner who will be at the Trials. Would you honestly pick anyone other than Ritz?[quote]Jesse was indeed a friend wrote:

I would probably reluctantly pick Galen, but I understand you perhaps are not including him. Outside of Galen, I admit it is a tough call. Possibly Bobby Curtis or Tim Nelson, but yeah, I am not sure that a slow pace hurts Ritz.

TLW wrote:

Think of it not a pacer really, but a legit athlete who will go out at 1:04 for the first half.

If Rupp goes out hard the field has no choice but to follow as he could in theory run away with the win, based on his 1:00:30 debut half marathon.

Someone of Rupps caliber could, based off his prs, debut in 2:08 so Hall and Meb would mark Rupp and not allow him to get away.

I could definitely see Salazar setting Rupp up to run 16 - 18 miles at a fast clip for a workout and DNFing (and benefiting Ritz his training partner).

If Ritz is in good shape this strategy could play out to his advantage.

IT'S A PLOY!!!

I'm less interested in how Rupp chooses to race than I am in whether Ritz knows to a certainty (i.e. assured by Salazar) whether Rupp intends to finish. If he does, then he has an advantage on the field regardless of Rupp's race tactics.

Jesse was indeed a friend wrote:

Yeah, maybe, but it is difficult to imagine Galen leading unless he's planning to drop out. Galen doesn't like to lead.

He still has nightmares of Solinsky blowing by him.

NEWS! NEWS! NEWS!

You think a sponsor would come calling upon Trafeh, should he make the podium? If he does, it would be a MAJOR coup for Skechers if they are able to sign him, and it would be a BREAKOUT coup for Skechers if they were to do so, in addition to Meb making the podium, if he also is one of the top three. I doubt this a joke in some corporate think-tanks.

Who knows, maybe Rupp was 'offered' a special Christmas Bonus to show up on the line, to play it fast and loose, depending upon Ritz's status.

So let's look at the above scenario more closely: Rupp going through the half in 1:04. Seriously, only 1:04? Even were Rupp to go through in 1:03, I don't see that having much of an affect on the outcome, because Meb, Hall and Trafeh will still play off Ritz.

Let me explain further. Remember the line from the coach in the Billy Mills movie, regarding: "he owns you"? Over the marathon distance, Hall probably figures he 'owns' Meb now, and Meb figures he 'owns' Ritz. Trafeh and Rupp are wildcards, but Hall is still thinking 3rd place podium worst-case, while Meb is thinking he'll have to battle Trafeh if necessary, should Rupp decide to finish the race out. In that scenario, Meb figures he likes his odds, since he 'owns' Ritz, and Trafeh has never completed a full marathon race.

Hypothetical exchange?

Corporate Machine: "It's quite simple Mr Trafeh. We are willing to sign you to quite the lucrative contract in the coming year. All we ask is you be a little patient. We want you to set your sites on 2016 (to help make sure our older athlete goes this year). We are willing to guarantee an immediate payout, starting now. Should you refuse, you risk missing the podium due to one or both of our current athletes beating you fair and square; in that case you will quite likely continue your financial struggle, resolved to meager 2nd rate race winnings."

MT: "Your current offer indicates to me that you underestimate my talents.

Word of advice: The Meb and Trafeh camps better keep an eye on their respective team's water bottles.

TLW wrote:

Think of it not a pacer really, but a legit athlete who will go out at 1:04 for the first half.

If Rupp goes out hard the field has no choice but to follow as he could in theory run away with the win, based on his 1:00:30 debut half marathon.

Someone of Rupps caliber could, based off his prs, debut in 2:08 so Hall and Meb would mark Rupp and not allow him to get away.

I could definitely see Salazar setting Rupp up to run 16 - 18 miles at a fast clip for a workout and DNFing (and benefiting Ritz his training partner).

If Ritz is in good shape this strategy could play out to his advantage.

They might let him go thinking he is making a rookie mistake. Remember the goal is to make the top three.

elton wrote:

I'm less interested in how Rupp chooses to race than I am in whether Ritz knows to a certainty (i.e. assured by Salazar) whether Rupp intends to finish. If he does, then he has an advantage on the field regardless of Rupp's race tactics.

If Rupp goes out and Ritz doesn't cover, Rupp is dropping. If Ritz follows Rupp is for the long haul.

Part of me doesn't really want Ritz to do the marathon. It's not his event. He's been 6th in the World at 10k but 9th in the olympics in the marathon. I could easily see this year's 10k being Solinsky, Rupp, and Ritz. That would leave the 5k team for Lagat, Teg, Jager/Bumby/Lomong/Nelson/Curtis/Vaughn. I think the 'thon team will be Hall, Meb, Ritz/Trafeh/Nelson/Curtis/Moran

Mo Trafeh signed up as a Nike runner.

This talk that Rupp is going to help Ritz rope-a-dope Hall or Meb is a little ridiculous. Hall runs his own race (sometimes to a fault) and Meb is one of the most tactically savvy racers in the US. They aren't going to get caught out by a big move by Rupp. Plus, they have distinguished themselves as a "cut above" the rest of the field at the marathon distance and realistically should lock up spots. I know, I know, this is the marathon and anything can happen and all that crap, but Hall is a 2:04-2:06 marathoner (depending on who you ask) and Meb just PR'd at NYC this fall with a 2:09, so they *should* make the team.

The third spot could go to any number of guys, as there are 5-6 who have run 2:10-2:12, or at least have shown HM times equating to a similar performance. Let's include Rupp with these guys (for discussions sake). There are two ways to look at it:

1.) Attempt to qualify. Salazar and Rupp recognize the rest of field is relatively soft and Rupp could get an Olympic spot running a 2:10 (1:06/1:04) effort, giving them the luxury of choosing between the 5k/10k/marathon at the Olympics. Rupp could qualify, run the track trials, then decide whether to accept or decline his position for the marathon, based on where they think he'll do best. Houston pays for the fees and accommodation of each entrant, so it's basically a "free-trial" at the marathon, versus a big city marathon where Rupp could run the same level performance and finish say seventh or eighth (Hall's 2:06 was only 6th at London). Rupp doesn't hurt his value (for appearance fees) by placing 3rd and earning an Olympic spot. Plus, if he drops out at 35km, then they can sell it as a workout.

2.) Workout/tempo run. Houston pays for each of the entrants. Therefore, it doesn't cost/hurt Rupp to go to the trials. He can run 20-30km at race pace/steady effort, then drop out. It has the added benefit of helping the top tier marathoners (Meb, Hall, Ritz) if Rupp paces them through halfway in 1:05. That's on PR pace for the majority of the field, so you seperate the wheat from the chaff pretty quickly. Plus, if anyone is having an off-day, you're going to jettison them early enough so they can't just hang around in the final 5k. If you REALLY want to subscribe to the he's trying to whittle away the field, the more realistic targets are Trafeh, Arcinga, Gotcher, Hartmann, etc. A guy with a 2:11 PR isn't going to run 2:11 if he's trying to cover surges every couple of miles, or follows Rupp out in 1:04 for the first half. Trafeh couldn't hold himself back in London and the rest haven't demonstrated the fitness that they could handle hard mid-race surges. The more of them that blow up, the fewer competitors to challenge Ritz.