All this considering that Rupp has gold medals and WR's in his resume, like Snell...
Oh wait!
All this considering that Rupp has gold medals and WR's in his resume, like Snell...
Oh wait!
bangalangadanga wrote:
I think he could run a 2:10 by cruising for 23 miles and dropping a 14:00 5k and get 3rd without any tremendous effort or change in training.
1. It'd be a good training run.
2. He can make the olympic team as a backup although he's pretty much assured to go in the 10k.
3. Is he going for the 5k?
3.5. How freaking stacked is the 5k field going to be at the trials?? Possibly not that stacked.
4. It is november so my questions about track are inane in nature.
With the 10k speed Rupp could run at the moment, there is no need for him to rush into Marathons. He should spend a little more time on the track.
One more thing, if he has to run a Marathon, he should take advantage of debut pay. I don't think OT marathon can give him a better deal than NYC or other major marathons.
This thread has made me think of something.
It is funny that Coach Salazar is always in tune with the latest advances and what the top guys in the world are doing in training.
But he is very old school when it comes to career progression. Start on the track, lots of 1500's and 5k's then move to the 10k and then when you have peaked there go to the marathon.
But the recent movement among many of the top runners is to go straight to the marathon at a younger age.
I am somewhat surprised that Rupp hasn't done a marathon yet.
Salazar said that Rupp needs more strength. One good way to get strength is 8-10 weeks of marathon training. If he gets even the slightest injury he scraps it and gets ready for next year. There's not really a chance of getting injured during the race. He would have strict instructions to drop out if he felt that something was wrong or it was clear he wouldn't finish in the top 3. Ideally, he needs another peak and rest cycle between last year's WC and next years Olympics. And yes, he could make the team as insurance against an untimely injury or fall at the trials next summer. He would probably only need to run 2:12 because they will go out slow.
In the interview linked below, Rupp says they considered the Olympic Trials but decided against it. He's going to run a full indoor season, presumably to work on closing speed for the 10,000 which is the pattern he's been following for a couple years now. While I think his chances of making the Olympic marathon team are pretty good, he's a near certainty to make it on the track as well unless he's injured. His chances of medaling in the 10,000 are probably as good as any other distance, which is to say he won't be a favorite but he could be close enough to be dangerous.
The man has just run 26:48 for a 10k. He gets better every year at it. Hes spent the last 4 years getting faster for the olympic 10k. Why in the world would he bother with the marathon rate now.
He has the rest of his career to run marathons. You can run fast marathons into your mid 30's. He is only 25 years old so he will have three more olympics to run a marathon.
This discussion would make more sense in 2016 if he hasn't run a marathon or shown that he is a medal threat in the 10k at a world championship.
Dude, you are being over analytical. The population here at LetsRun is not as fast as Rupp, but we do know the "feeling" of running a great 10k. We also know that a short excursion to the marathon would not throw a wrench in the grand scheme of things.
runfastpleasenowsir wrote:
The man has just run 26:48 for a 10k. He gets better every year at it. Hes spent the last 4 years getting faster for the olympic 10k. Why in the world would he bother with the marathon rate now.
He has the rest of his career to run marathons. You can run fast marathons into your mid 30's. He is only 25 years old so he will have three more olympics to run a marathon.
This discussion would make more sense in 2016 if he hasn't run a marathon or shown that he is a medal threat in the 10k at a world championship.
three reasons to look to the marathon:
1) He hasn't shown that he can close a 10,000 fast enough to medal. marathons are more of a crapshoot.
2) money. big life changing money.
3) marathon training would help his 10,000
Galen would make an excellent marathoner. However, I do not look forward to him moving up to 26.2. RIght now, I am more interested in seeing how far he can go in the 10k. I mean, he's only recently been shaping up a terrific kick (granted, it wasn't there at worlds, but shit happens in running). I say he worry about running a 12:50 5k before even thinking about the marathon. His 5k pr does not represent how good he really is at the distance.
That being said, Rupp will make a solid marathoner in the future. I, personally think he'd be a 2:05 marathoner. And, yes, he could do the trials this year. Third place would be laughably easy for Rupp. Mind you, he would have to do longer training intervals, etc, but I think he could give Ryan a run for his money, if he wanted to.
put another way, in an old lrc question:
if running fast times is his goal, the 10000 would be the choice. If he got down below 26:30, I think that AR would last a long time. Unless Chalanga becomes an American. But in the marathon he would be just another 2:06 guy against 2:03 Africans. he wouldn't even get the AR, most likely.
if medaling is the goal...I just don't see him doing it in the 10k. He hasn't shown the speed. But in the marathon, I have no doubt he could stay with the lead pack in the marathon through 23 miles. With 15 minutes to go at the end of the olympic marathon magic can happen.
While it would certainly be interesting to see Rupp run the OTM and I'm not against it, but it is very unlikely to happen. There are3 primary reasons why he won't do it; first, he needs to work on his closing speed, which will be better served by focusing on indoor 3ks and 5ks and perhaps even a 1500. Rupp ran with the leaders in the WC 10K until the last lap, that's big time. Rupp finished strong in that race, but could not handle the sudden acceleration in the closing lap. Secondly, race promoters will give him a pot of gold (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for whichever marathon he debuts in. He won't get the same type of money if he runs the OTM, unless he runs something crazy like a 2:05, which is unlikely in an abbreviated marathon training cycle and on a slow course. The OTM is not likely going to be very fast, there is no incentive to run fast and risk blowing up; the top athletes will simply want to qualify. The third reason is, AlSal is very methodical, he rarely deviates from the most logical path and running the OTM would definitely be a deviation.
There are probably other reasons I could add to that, but those are the main ones. Rupp has just started to get down to business on the track, I can't imagine running all of your track PRs one year and moving to the marathon the next. However, I can see him pacing the OT for 20 miles and dropping out and if he handles that with ease, it will make his debut even more intriguing. The Africans are moving to the marathon early purely for financial reasons, but any non-African who can consistently run sub-13/27 on the track can make just as much money. With that said, like any professional athlete, if someone puts enough money on the table, I would not completely rule out a marathon soon, but that most likely won’t be in 2012.
Btw, if Rupp did run the OTM, finishing in the top 3 will not be a cakewalk by no means, Hall, Ritz and Meb are legit and Rupp’s 10k and Half performances says he should be in the mix and could ‘perhaps’ win it, but those shorter distances don’t automatically translate to a fast marathon. It would be gamble, Rupp would have just as much of an opportunity of winning as blowing up. There are some unique chemistry and physiology that takes place after 20 miles that don’t come into play in the shorter distances.
Rupp could not "cruise" to a top 3 finish at the OTs. Ritz, Meb, and Hall are legit guys and Rupp would be in his first ever marathon. Heck he could get whupped by some of the second-tier runners if he makes any mistakes. I don't think he could "cruise" to a 2:10 like you all are saying.
the NYC money shouldn't matter
Oprah's got money
Q in as many events as you can
You only get a few chances then you are too old
money can't buy you a shot
I was going to post this idea! Salazar should enter Rupp in the Oly Trials to rabbit and draft for Ritz, then drop at 16 or so. Instruct Ritz to stay on his back like Viren on Shorter, and he should conserve enough energy to make a difference the last 10.
Barakus Obama wrote:
All this considering that Rupp has gold medals and WR's in his resume, like Snell...
Oh wait!
If Rupp and Snell had raced a 10000 in their respective prime Rupp would have lapped Snell twice.
Look, it took me a while to warm up to Ruppster, but when he set the AR he showed some real guts hanging with Bekele and the Africans for 24 laps. I think those guts would make him a great marathoner by the same standards he is a great 10k racer; that is compared to other Americans.
As for the OT marathon, he is not gonna run it, so it's a kind of a pointless hypothetical. He deserves that NYC debutant payday anyway. I see many highly lauded 4th and 5th place finishes in his future.
with his superior speed, Snell could probably have gone sub-13
on a modern track (ran 1.44 on grass. worth 1.41 on syntetic
surface).
meh, he has no good reason to. 26 miles would not be a good training run. especially since he'd have to do follow it up with mile repeats or 800s. better he let Ryan Hall burn it out before he takes to the scene.
As much as I'd like to see Rupp roll everybody in Houston, he won't run until New York pays him to (possibly in 2012, but most likely 2013).
You are mainly talking about East Africans. A huge reason is because of money. Secondary reasons are also because east africans are maybe not so young as reported. Also, as East Africans they may have the physical attributes to do marathons at an earlier age. In any case, Al Sal doesn't necessarily subscribe to competing at short distances and working up. Mainly he is about training and staying healthy to prepare the athlete for higher volume training.
Old School Career Progression wrote:
This thread has made me think of something.
It is funny that Coach Salazar is always in tune with the latest advances and what the top guys in the world are doing in training.
But he is very old school when it comes to career progression. Start on the track, lots of 1500's and 5k's then move to the 10k and then when you have peaked there go to the marathon.
But the recent movement among many of the top runners is to go straight to the marathon at a younger age.
I am somewhat surprised that Rupp hasn't done a marathon yet.