I recall in the "BERLIN MARATHON ANALYSIS" thread, Renato claims, that besides Makau ...:
"There are 6 Kenyan athletes that can beat the WR :
a part Makau, Geoffrey Mutai, Emanuel Mutai, Moses Mosop, Abel Kirui, Wilson Kipsang (and in the list we can add Sammy Kitwara, if and when decides to prepare marathon in a right way."
The two Mutais are going to push it under 2:06.
Nutella1 wrote:
runn wrote:Ironically, for all you newbies out there, Boston was once considered a tougher course because of the downhill start which pounded your quads and the uphills at such a tough point in the race.
It still is. 99/100 times you don't have 25mph wind in your back and then Boston is a lot harder than Frankfurt, Berlin, Rotterdam, Paris, London,...
And where did they get a 25mph wind? Did you actually go try to figure out what the wind was for the runners or do you see someone post something and assume that it is correct, no questions asked.
1) Wind readings most often cited are for Boston/Logan airport, far east of the race and near the ocean and typically not even for the period of the race but the 'forecast'.
2) Inland wind readings were in the range of 13-14mph*
3) *Wind readings are taken at 10meters/33 feet above ground level in an unobstructed area.
4) runners are running at ground level, average body mass at 1 meter.
5) There are trees, houses etc etc that are breaking up the wind
6) The course is point to point, but it does not run 26.2 miles in a line exactly in the direction of the wind, so reduce the wind by about 23.7/26.2 and then diminish this factor by the lack of complete alignment of the wind vector with the direction of the race
7) the gusts were typically swirling winds that on some occasions were actually head winds.
Boston does not use pacers, it has corners and turns and footing issues. Anyone that thinks that the 'aided' Boston course is easier/faster than the pancake Berlin-type course with pacers is mis-informed etc. Go argue with malmo, I sure you know a lot more than he does.
makes it easy wrote:
2:03:02 is legit.
Without the wind he was still 2:04:00 or better
Do we assume that Hall was therefore about 2:06:00 or better? Color me skeptical.
Good points.
The deal is the majors all want to have the fastest guys , agents have a big shopping list of Kenyan athletes to select from. Its all about winning money , nothing to do with personalities in the sport or marketing the sport. Yes the athletes are here to make a living understood , agents just a fast buck.
Sure its a great field , outside of the message boards no one will know or care about the winner Monday am in the sports pages.
If an American wins ,ok , something to talk about.
DontFeedTheTroll wrote:
makes it easy wrote:2:03:02 is legit.
Without the wind he was still 2:04:00 or better
Do we assume that Hall was therefore about 2:06:00 or better? Color me skeptical.
Agreed. Hall ran no better or worse than he always runs. These folks who just don't get the magnitude of the wind influence that day really don't seem to have functional brains.
runnerdave wrote:
The two Mutais are going to push it under 2:06.
I agree, ( at least one of them will). After seeing their interview today on the live feed, they seemed very focused. I predict at least one American to be in the top 5.
My take... wrote:
I agree, ( at least one of them will). After seeing their interview today on the live feed, they seemed very focused. I predict at least one American to be in the top 5.
IDK, if they're really going out in sub2h06m pace they'll do some serious damage to the field EARLY. That could get ugly.
It will be an interesting race. I don't know if any men have really pushed at New York from the beginning - in the new Kenyan style of marathon running. If the Mutais are trying to make an impression to be picked for the London team, they might just go for it from the start.
Aside from that, what's up with Meb running a marathon this close to the trials? Hall got some criticism for running in Chicago. Is Meb planning on the OT? Is it appearance fees? Will he have a sore calf muscle at mile 13?
Hammy and co wrote:
Agreed. Hall ran no better or worse than he always runs. These folks who just don't get the magnitude of the wind influence that day really don't seem to have functional brains.
Hall ran better than he usually does. Losing by a few seconds to the defending NYC champion is pretty damn good. It was a 2:06 "London" effort which is better than he usually runs.
Yes it is. At least according to NYRR, just as it has been every year I can remember.
NY will be one of a few recent marathons with terrific fields, and athletes who are running faster times than any in history (I find the number of recent amazing men's performances incredible!). If "greatest" means the fastest runners, perhaps marathons from the past should not even be considered as contenders. But, in terms of men's field, I am thinking of 2 others that were amazing in their own ways. Distant past: 1984 Olympic marathon, with the seemingly unbeatable Toshiko Seko and Rob DeCastella, who hadn't met in their prime, and Alberto Salazar, whose fall from invincibility was then recent enough that many thought he could win it ... PLUS Carlos Lopes, x-cntry world champ, 2nd fastest 10-k time in the world; PLUS amazing runners from Djibouti who seemed to come out of nowhere; PLUS the Soh brothers, etc... I personally found Wanjiru's victory perhaps the most amazing olympic marathon performance, but Lopes in '84 was a close contender for greatness. More recent past: London 2002, with Khalid Khannouchi, Paul Tergat, and Haile G. going head to head was pretty great, no?