Lemaitre 9.92

moshimoshi wrote:

He gave the quickest starter two yards almost immediately. It wasn't the French champs, it was the Christophe Lemaitre Handicap Invitational.

you have a good sense of humor.

I think it is odd how many wind readings are +2.0. Many more than say +1.9 or +1.8. This defies the probability that the wind reading will be +2.0, +1.9, or +1.8. Perhaps they manipulated the wind meter just a little bit and rounded down to +2.0. I like Lemaitre but don't think he'll run this fast during the WC with "official" instruments.

sorry charlie wrote:

I think it is odd how many wind readings are +2.0. Many more than say +1.9 or +1.8. This defies the probability that the wind reading will be +2.0, +1.9, or +1.8. Perhaps they manipulated the wind meter just a little bit and rounded down to +2.0. I like Lemaitre but don't think he'll run this fast during the WC with "official" instruments.

Typical letsrun a-hole. He ran right with Bolt when they raced. Give the guy credit. For a mechanical nightmare he is improving and WILL be in the finals of the WC meet in Daegu.

Christophe Lemaître ran 20.08 for the 200m today in Albi, but this French record won't be recognized because of the favorable wind: +2.3 m/s

http://fr.sports.yahoo.com/30072011/70/lemaitre-prive-de-record.html

sorry charlie wrote:

I think it is odd how many wind readings are +2.0. Many more than say +1.9 or +1.8. This defies the probability that the wind reading will be +2.0, +1.9, or +1.8. Perhaps they manipulated the wind meter just a little bit and rounded down to +2.0. I like Lemaitre but don't think he'll run this fast during the WC with "official" instruments.

Even if that's the case, did it not occur to you that they may delay the start a few seconds if the reading is around 2.1 or 2.2?

Coach--

The point of giving a "corrected" time is not to diminish the performance, it is to get an idea of where he stands relative to other athletes who didn't happen to run in that particular race.

9.92 is no doubt a brilliant run--for the longest time, Calvin Smith's 9.93(A) was the WR, taken down by only Lewis' 9.92 in Seoul in '88.

But he'll shortly be running against lots of guys who have run 9.92 and faster this year, even excluding the times I consider bogus from Eugene and possibly Clermont.

His uncorrected 9.92 puts him 9th on the 100m list this year.

Considering Gay at 9.79 is out, that puts him at 8th, which is potentially WC finals material.

But wait, there's more. I think Rodgers' 9.85 from Eugene has to be thrown out, for obvious reasons. Lemaitre is now 7th.

Mullings' 9.80 from Eugene also has to be thrown out, but he also has a 9.89 that looks possibly legit, although from Clermont, especially since it took +2.0 to get there.

So Lemaitre sits at an uncorrected 7th place right now, which is amazing.

The 6 guys in front of him needed less wind than he did, and ran better times, so they are legitimately in front of him.

But now let's compare apples to apples, and look at how corrected times stack up at the WC's.

Lemaitre's best corrected time of the year is actually his 9.95 (+1.0) in Lausanne, which is a 10.01 corrected.

Frater can be disregarded, as he is not on Jamaica's 100m world team!

So now Lemaitre sits at 6th.

Bledman's 9.93 (+1.0) is a 9.98 corrected, and better than Lemaitre's 10.01 corrected, but I think it has to be thrown out because it is Clermont-anomalous, and it is way out of whack for him, he has never before or since come close.

So Lemaitre still sits 6th.

Patton's 9.94 (+1.3) is a 10.01 corrected, equal to Lemaitre's 10.02 corrected--but, it was recorded in that bogus April 6 race in Eugene, so it has to be thrown out.

So Lemaitre still sits 6th.

Dix's 9.94 (+1.3) looks to be a real 10.01 corrected, so he is in competition with Lemaitre for the 6th spot.

Blake's 9.95 (+0.9) in Montreuil is a 9.95 corrected, so he also has to be put ahead of Lemaitre.

Lemaitre is now bumped down to battling for the 7th spot with Dix.

Gatlin's 9.95 (+1.3) is a 10.02, leaving Lemaitre and Dix battling for 7th.

Ashmeade's 9.96 (+1.1) is a 10.01 corrected, but IMHO should be thrown out as it is from that anomalous Clermont meet.

Bailey's 9.97 (+0.5) is a 10.00, so he must be put ahead of Lemaitre as well.

Lemaitre and Dix are now battling for the 8th spot.

Bledman's 10.05 (-0.5) in Mayaguez is a 10.02 corrected, leaving Lemaitre and Dix in 8th.

Thompson's 10.06 (-0.7) in Lignano is a 10.01 corrected.

Lemaitre, Dix, and Thompson are now battling for the 8th spot.

So, his 9.92 wasn't even his best run of the year. It was essentially the same run he has produced all year long, only .01 worse than his run in Lausanne--it just happened to have better wind.

So what do we have? The top 7 going to WC's, by corrected times so far this year, in no particular order, are:

Powell

Bolt

Makusha

Carter

Mullings

Blake

Bailey

Then we have, battling for the 8th spot, a 3-way tie:

Lemaitre, Dix, Thompson

Just 0.01 second behind these 3 is:

Gatlin

Wildcards with questionable race results are:

Bledman, Rodgers

These runners all have a fair shot of making the semi's, barring injury or false starts.

So, Lemaitre is on the bubble with essentially 5 other guys at WC's.

I would lump Bailey in with these guys, leaving 7 runners, including Lemaitre, vying for the last 2 spots in the final.

So which 2 runners will make the final, out of Lemaitre, Dix, Thompson, Gatlin, Bledman, Rodgers, and Bailey?

THAT is a tough question to answer.

It depends of course on how well they run rounds, and on who has been showing improvement leading up to WC's.

My guess would be Dix and Lemaitre, although who knows. Dix has been consistent over the years, and seems to deliver when it matters. Lemaitre is so consistent that he could probably run exactly the same race in the prelims and semi's.

There is also Makusha ahead of these guys, who is relatively untested in high level meets, IMHO. So that could mean that these guys would be fighting for 3 spots, in which case I'd pick Dix, Lemaitre, and probably Rodgers.

Who ya' got from among these 7 athletes, for potentially 2 or 3 spots in the WC final?

no white man can run this fast, he either has some black blood or is using some POWERFUL ILLEGAL drug. JOKE- DONT GET MAD

[quote] no white man can run this fast...

a white dude can run that fast on a steep downhill track. i don't know how to calculate the time benefit, but on a vertical course, if the dude pumps his legs and arms, it seems 9.92 for 100m would be possible.

Sorry, just remembered Carter is not in the individual event either!

So that leaves only 4 spots in the final predictably occupied:

Powell

Bolt

Mullings

Blake

with the remaining 4 spots contested by Lemaitre, Dix, Thompson, Gatlin, Bledman, Rodgers, Bailey, and Makusha.

I think it will be Lemaitre, Dix, Rodgers, and...Gatlin!

Unless Makusha does well, but who knows, the guy has been in hiding, so we can't predict his performance with any degree of reliability.

Can you imagine, Gatlin in the WC final. It is a possibility, as I really do think that 4 spots are up for grabs by very similarly-performing athletes.

I am white and almost 71 y/o and have run a 21.1 this year,only problem, my race was a 100 meters geezer dash.

Sure he can--remember it is only a 10.02 corrected.

I think I'm returning to my previously-held belief that anybody who runs under 9.79 is using, with the exception of Asafa Powell.

Asafa Powell, Donovan Bailey, Frankie Fredericks, and Carl Lewis (and POSSIBLY Tyson Gay) are the fastest guys ever in possibly clean runs--apart from Bob Hayes, of course, who was of another era.

Low-to-mid 9.8's for lifetime bests, which under perfect conditions could have been mid-to-high 9.7x

Lemaitre may well be one of the fastest white guys ever, and given that the top black guys could, IMHO, run mid-to-high 9.7x under perfect conditions, puts Lemaitre's 9.92 under perfect conditions into the realm of the believable.

I will say that, if Lemaitre runs mid-9.8's under legal but not perfect conditions, I would have to suspect him of using, because his performance would be really anomalous. Not only would he be among the best, he would be among whom I consider to be the best of all-time.

Sure there are fast white guys, but among the best of all-time? Even though it would be possible, I don't think it would be probable--and it would certainly be questionable.

But as of now, I think he's believable. His best this season is 10.01 corrected, and 9.92 under perfect conditions.

There have been white representatives in at least the 4 shortest distances, at the very highest levels, who never had a positive test (or did they?):

100m - Lemaitre

200m - Mennea

400m - Wariner

800m - Coe

1500m - ??

Not that these guys were all clean, but maybe it is possible that Lemaitre could be among the best of all-time, because I think it is arguable that the other 3 are.

hmmmmm.....

What the hell was up with Pietro Mennea?

[quote]So we should judge the content of his character by the colour of his skin? [quote]

One Word: Obama

mr cool Satch wrote:

I am white and almost 71 y/o and have run a 21.1 this year,only problem, my race was a 100 meters geezer dash.

Ron Paul is making a comeback on the Track?

Yes, I know that Mennea's 19.72 was at altitude...but it's still a smoking time.

He's 8th on the all-time list, and around the top 10 if you put Marsh and Lewis in front of him.

Not bad!

I just did the correction for altitude, which makes his 19.72 a 19.93, which puts a bunch more guys in front of him, including convicted and other certain dopers.

Interestingly, Powell's 200m PR currently stands at 19.90! WHAT? Is he running the 200m at WC's this year? Did he run it at trials?

Sprint Geezer wrote:

Sure he can--remember it is only a 10.02 corrected.

I think I'm returning to my previously-held belief that anybody who runs under 9.79 is using, with the exception of Asafa Powell.

Asafa Powell, Donovan Bailey, Frankie Fredericks, and Carl Lewis (and POSSIBLY Tyson Gay) are the fastest guys ever in possibly clean runs--apart from Bob Hayes, of course, who was of another era.

You might wish to take a look at DB's physique in his prime. And ditto AP (a few years back)...

I know all about DB's physique in his prime, I ran against him more than once. I have to tell you that he looked pretty much exactly the same "before" his prime--ridiculous!

There was severe public scrutiny and doping control in place in Canada after the Dubin inquiry. Bailey and Surin have by far the best odds of having been clean of anybody to ever break 9.90, even though Bailey had an American coach.

And AP still IS in his prime, judging by his times. He looks good, but he's no Ben Johnson.

I don't resent people better than me. Believe me, there are TONS of 100m guys better than I ever was!

There are degrees of anomaly. The fact that he is a white guy under 10 is anomalous already.

If he was among the best of all-time, that would be much more anomalous.

A super-high degree of anomaly IS enough to SUSPECT certain methods of achieving that degree of anomaly--methods both legal and sanctioned, and illegal and not sanctioned.

And, fool, if you had read my post, you would see that I clearly DO NOT currently suspect him of drug use--see the second last sentence:

"But as of now, I think he's believable."

What about that don't you understand?

Talk people down? Diminish his accomplishments? What the hell is the matter with you? In my immediately previous post, I just said that his 9.92 was amazing, and I put him on a par with the great Carl Lewis!

Why don't you get the F**K off letsrun, or at least read people's posts before you rant.

And if you want to rant, why don't you rant about the guy who took the infinitely-more-severe position that Lemaitre is using because he is a white guy under 10?

Because you're a complete tool, that's why.

Your aim is clearly not to preserve Lemaitre's reputation, but to attack particular posters instead.

Boring.

I think Bolt ran 9.88 so yeahhhhhh