David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it?

If you think Rudisha can run 10.07 (or even 10.28), you're an idiot. He would be the fastest sprinter in the history of Kenya by over two-tenths of a second. The 10k and marathon are a stretch--he's never even raced a 1500 internationally. Not out of the question, but tough.

What about Webb? He's already hit the 800-10000 and with training probably can run the Marathon in the first year. Then if he focuses on strength and speed, he can probably get the 400 relatively easy and focus on the 200/100.

i'd put my money on kiprop over rudisha

Didn't Jason Rexing go 10.19 in an all-comers meet, in trainers, from a standing start? I think with some spikes, good competition and a set of blocks he'd have the "A" in the 100 with no problem.

Obviously if he could get the "A" in the 100 then the others would be no problem.

Yes, in the 400, 800, and 1500.

No, in all the others.

Kenenisa Bekele...

Harvsauce wrote:

Kenenisa Bekele...

. . . could not even come close to the 400 "B" standard.

The idea of Rudisha making the 100 or 200 standards is totally laughable!

:|} wrote:

Sorry, I was drunk when I wrote that. I still did point out that he probably can't do it, so I guess I'm not crazy. But it is possible to hit a 10.3 for him. As a small distance runner (5'11" 140) in high school, I was primarily a distance guy (52 400, 1:55 800, 2:32 1k, 4:20 1600, 9:20 3200, 15:16 5k). This shows I didn't have much speed, yet I still managed out an 10.96 100 in one of my goof-off meets. I would think that Solinsky with his probably much greater 400/800 speed and his build could probably do much better for the 100.[/quote]

I promise you that as a distance runner with only 52 second 400 speed, you did not run a 10.96 in the 100. Maybe hand timed in a small meet with questionable timers, but not FAT. Considering it was a goof off meet, it probably was hand timed, which is much different than FAT; approximately .24 seconds which brings your time to a 11.2

Why choose David when he has only had world class success at one event. He has not done anything to show he could be a short sprinter or a long distance ruuner. Why not speculate about someone like Geb or Rod Dixon who has been world class in 1500 to the marathon.

Personally, I don't think he could get the B standard in anything under the 400m or over the 5000. David is actually a 400/800 type could become a world class 1500m if he worked on it, but that would certainly be at the exclusion of the 400...you can't train to be a miler and sprinter at the same time.

By the way, on the McMillan calculator, a 52 second 400 is equivalent to a 12.4 in the 100. I realize not everyone agrees with his chart, but since you are a middle-distance runner, if anything your 100 meter time should be even slower than the 12.4 equivalent. That is why I have a difficult time believing the 10.96.

I am also finding it comical all of the people that think some of these distance runners could run in the low 10's for a 100. Even breaking 10.5 FAT for a middle distance runner would be very, very impressive.

I understand all the skepticism. Frankly, I don't think he could run 10.07 either. But what we have to remember is that nothing of this sort has ever ever ever been attempted. When was the last time a world class 800m runner completely quit his event and started training exclusively for the short sprints? Never, of course, because that would be about the stupidest thing you could do for your career. But until that happens, our estimates are very very high-variance. We really have no idea how he would do. Maybe he is already running his 400s at essentially his absolute maximum speed, and he wouldn't break 11. Or maybe he could completely revamp his technique, bulk up, and break 10. This sounds ridiculously fast, but then again, the whole thing is a ridiculous idea in the first place. I would hesitate to dismiss the possibility of a 10.07 just because we have no context to base our analysis on.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Rudisha is an absolutely transcendent athlete. I mean, he is the world record holder for the 800m. No one, ever, has run faster, and only three other people have come within a second of him. He has an incredible amount of athletic talent. He is focusing solely on the short sprints for 2-3 years, with 10.07 and 20.30 being his lifetime goals. Furthermore, he doesn't have to come anywhere near to his 800m level of performance in the 100m. He only has to be within 0.5 seconds of the world record, so achieving this would still affirm him as an 800m runner. Now maybe the gulf between 100m runners and 800m runners is just too great, but if somehow it isn't, if somehow an 800m runner could turn into a 10.07 100m runner, then wouldn't this be exactly the situation in which it would happen?

I believe the short answer to this question is "No." ...As many have pointed out, the range required to hit the A-standard in all of those events is unheard of. There have been many great runners with incredible range like Geb, Bekele, Aouita, etc, etc, but that range has never included anything close to the 100m or 200m.

Similarly, take a guy who can hit the American A (or even B) standard in the 100m or 200m and his chances of hitting any of the standards over 400m are extremely slim. With 4 years to train, maybe such a guy would hit the 800, but the rest?

GForce wrote:

What about Webb? He's already hit the 800-10000 and with training probably can run the Marathon in the first year. Then if he focuses on strength and speed, he can probably get the 400 relatively easy and focus on the 200/100.

Good choice, although on the other hand, Webb can't hit ANY of the standards at the moment.

It's well known that everyone runs the shortest event they are any good at. Anyone with a 10.07 in them runs the 100, maybe the 200.

I don't think he could do the 100, but I do think he has an outside shot at the "B" standard for the 200, and, just to get this out of the way since there is much uninformed debate going on there, David Rudisha ran 45.5 for 400m (under the "B" standard) LAST YEAR. Given that he ran under the "B" standard for the 400 during his buildup to his 800 WR, I think it is safe to say there is a very good chance that he could hit the "A" standard for 400 if he were to get even remotely serious about putting up a peak effort at 400.

Also, given the 45.5, I don't have too much trouble imagining him being able to run the "B" standard for 200. The "A" standard for 200? Much less likely (obviously), but I do believe this is well within the realm of possibility. Given only what I know about him, I think his chances are probably better at 200m than at 10,000m.

I don't think it's any more of a given that he could run 28:15 than it is that Jeremy Wariner could run a 3:39 1500. Could he? Who knows. But I don't think "he can run 800 really fast" and "he's tall and skinny" compute to automatic world class distance performances (even with 3-4 years of training). I guess he has the Kenyan thing going for him as well, but the logic is still not there.

I think the "A" for 100 would be virtually impossible, and the "B" for 100 also very, very unlikely.

How about Kim Gallagher (RIP) back in her heyday?

hikerdonovan wrote:

On a similar note, which superhero would win the battle to end all battles?

Easy. Mr. Rogers, no contest.

I think Curtis Beach would have a good shot at 100 thru 1500. I dont see any other mid distance guys going that fast for 100, or any sprinters who can run that fast for 1500.