Kim Smith vs. Kara Goucher @ Boston

qdfsrqfqsfq wrote:

As much as I like Kara, she isn't ready for a world class marathon right now.

I don't know if that's true. Kara finished very close to Edna Kiplagat on Sunday, who just won a major world class marathon 4.5 months ago. Judging by Kara's previous half marathon, and her performance at USA cross, I would say her fitness curve is real steep right now, and a couple more weeks means more for her than it would for most other people. I don't see any reason, after this past weekend, to think Kara isn't ready to contend (at the very least for a podium spot) in Boston.

Desiree Davila will beet them both (although I think Kara will be close), but I think Kim will crack first. Kara has changed her training so her legs will still be there in the later stages of the race, and Kim is riding high and will go out to fast and be a non-factor.

We shall see I guess. Maybe not at Boston.

Track speed will make a difference and always has at the elite level of racing.

true or maybe a little false wrote:

Let me continue to jump on the Kim Smith bandwagon. I see Kara as all show and no go.

Smith will finish first to third range

Davila will finish third to fifth range

Goucher will finish fifth to eight range.

Kara will be the first across the line to cry. I also predict that they will run the prop (Colton) out to her while she is still in the chute. She will do everything in her power to make this race all about her rather than those runners that finish in front of her.

And Kim what what Championship medals? What has Smith to show that in that league, much less being in a league ahead of Kara.

Kara is still coming back to speed, so it is hard to predict. If she ran that race while not backing off of training, I think that her slightly higher quality level will balance out Kim's training advantage and put them on even par (if Kara compromised her buildup by backing off for a while, it will have both dropped her training back and put a bit higher the standard on which to judge the quality of her race).

As for those half's -- which one had better quality competitors? I am betting that NYC was tougher, and the course might have been tougher also (Central Park is no waltz-in-the-park, although that matters more in a marathon than in a half).

You have to give Kara props though. 6 months since she had colt? Wow, its going to scary after she gets a year of training under her.

and 6 more months of AlSal Dope!

Kara will easily beat Kim. The last 6 miles will show Kara is a better racer.

Kim >>>>>> Kara. That is "much greater."

Can't wait to watch this race.

My prediction: Kim and Kara will take it out. We won't even see Desi in the picture, as she will run exactly the pace that her coaches think she is in shape to run. She will collect Kara carnage over the last 10k, but not be able to close in on Kim.

Any other athletes I should be adding to my prediction?

Kara's NYC Half equates to a 2:25. She is fit. My guess is the only race she won't be up for is if someone pushes the pace early and tries to make it a fast race. This has not happened at Boston when the women start before the men. The race has taken on a more "championship" dynamic with nobody really wanting to lead. I expect both Kara and Kim to be in the hunt until the real racing begins sometime later in the hills. Will either of them win? Probably not. Kim might feel more fit and take more risk. This could result in a 2nd place finish or a little bit of a blowup. Kara will probably run a more measured race. She will be more likely to move up in the later stages. I'd pick Kim 2nd, Kara 3rd.

In an interview I read with Kim last week she said she wants the win really really badly, like never before. Great interview...you get to see what she's really like!

Check it out:

http://runnersfeed.com/kim-smith-goes-for-the-win-in-boston/

olDmantime wrote:

Who beats who at Boston? Both of them ran a 1/2 marathon Sunday and I think the efforts were comparable. I am taking Smith to beat Goucher.

Desiree beats both

im looking at you wrote:

Kim >>>>>> Kara. That is "much greater."

Can't wait to watch this race.

My prediction: Kim and Kara will take it out. We won't even see Desi in the picture, as she will run exactly the pace that her coaches think she is in shape to run. She will collect Kara carnage over the last 10k, but not be able to close in on Kim.

Any other athletes I should be adding to my prediction?

Eat that crap you doubters.

Not a bad guess from this person, despite the bad spelling.

UnderSnowInWyo wrote:

Desiree Davila will beet them both (although I think Kara will be close), but I think Kim will crack first. Kara has changed her training so her legs will still be there in the later stages of the race, and Kim is riding high and will go out to fast and be a non-factor.