Eddie Owens (m17) 1:07.38

mainly,

Omega Male In Animals:

Two Rams are butting heads while the female watches. The winner who mates is the stongest and therefore the Alpha Male.

Wait...A third ram runs out of the woods and mates with the female while the two males are fighting. THAT is the omega male.

omega male FTMFW

M.D. you're such a creeper how do you know that some dude set a personal best by 3.5 minutes

With all being said, wind or no wind, Eddie posted a fab time. Hope to race him in the steeple outdoors!

I'm reading all of this stuff and believe me it is quite interesting. It does seem that Eddie's coaches are soooo into stroking their own ego's.

Folks, what's not to understand? Last year the course was changed and PR's were crushed. This year on the same course, the trend continued.

Prior to last year, the course was similar, except for the little loop at 42nd st as well as the finish line was much further south (past Liberty St).

So, why didn't anyone set PR's 2, 3, and 4 years ago? But last year and this year, records are falling faster than a drunk Charlie Sheen...

M.D. has it correct. He is clearly congratulating the runners. However, his stat analysis is right on. For those that PR'd, accept the fact, that at the very least the wind helped in all your PR's...and yes, the course is probably short, judging from the amount of PR's set last year as well.

....as for Mr. Owen's coaches, I can suggest you focus on stroking something else...but seriously, thanks for the laughs.

...and as for Eddie....congrats on being a great athlete...no one can take that away from you....

according to Daniels his half marathon vdot value is comparable to running a 9:09 in the 2 mile. Maybe he's a true 10k marathon runner

Looks like he can be a good 10k track/xc racer.

I hope JPM is not really a high-school coach, or if he is that he remembers to request a Haldol shot before practices and meets. I can only picture Morton Downey Jr. when I read his RAAAAAAAAAAAANT!!!!

A few things about your post MD:

The most glaring issue is that you are simultaneously trying to use statistics to backup your argument and trying to use anecdotal evidence from a few people you know. You said you know too many people that ran 4-5 min. PRs. You need a lot more than the 4 instances you alluded to, to use that as statistical evidence that everyone in the race benefited that much from the tailwind. You would need a much larger amount of runners who had been in the same condition as their previous PRs and ran 4-5 minutes faster to have evidence that the wind was the sole cause of their new time. I'm not attempting to say that the tailwind didn't affect the race, but your argument that is based on the few people you know is weak, statistically speaking of course.

Now, the evidence you provided from the running calculator website (http://www.runworks.com/calculator.html) was good. Most people on letsrun would trust a Jack Daniels' source - I have to say, in my own opinion that is not really based on anything, 22 sec/mile seems like a hell of a big number for that amount of wind, but I'll go along with it. I do see a couple of problems with this argument too. One is, where is this 12 mph wind reading coming from? Did NYRR record it's own wind reading? If so, where did they record it? If you are going to draw pretty precise conclusions from this info, you better know where it came from. It's generally WAY windier on the West Side Highway than it is in Central Park or in the interior of the city. So, if the 12 mph was at the finish line for instance, then I think you can only assume the 12 mph for the final 4 miles of the race that were on the west side. The other 3.1 miles you were talking about could not have had the same wind value. First of all, from Times Square to the west side is close to a mile and that was perpendicular to a north wind. Second, from where the first loop ended in the park to Times Square could not have had the same wind value as the West Side Highway, the park is wooded and the road curves which would have cut down the wind. Assuming the 12 mph was at the finish line, he was getting 12 mph for 4 miles and probably something a lot less than that for 2.2/2.3 other miles. So, the 4 miles with that wind slows his true output down 88 seconds, instead of the 151.8 seconds you went with. I'm aware that this leaves out whatever benefit he got from the other 2.2/2.3 miles, but it's impossible to calculate without knowing the wind. On top of all this, you also miss the fact that whatever the wind was in Central Park, the runners had to deal with running a full loop with that wind. Everyone knows that it's easier to run a loop with no wind than with a headwind and tailwind. So, for the first loop of the park, the runners were hindered by this wind - you said that it had no effect. Check the running calculator, if you add up the VO2 demand for a negative wind and it's positive equivalent, it doesn't add up to zero. According to that calculator, if you ran half a race into a 10 mph headwind and half with a 10 mph tailwind, you'd run about 10 sec/mile slower than if you ran with 0 mph wind. So, if that were the wind in the park, it would have slowed Eddie down by 60 seconds for the first loop.

On to your talk of it being impossible for Eddie to run that pace given his time at Footlocker. Really? Footlocker was 3 months ago and Eddie is 17, he's probably improved since then. Also, have you ever seen him race? He is an endurance machine - he finished 8th at Footlocker, and couldn't get under 1:30 for a 600 early in the indoor season. I coach at a nearby school, so I see Eddie race and run workouts weekly. He is built for long distance running, the longer the race, the better he will be. So, you can't say that he ran that fast due to course conditions because of his 5k time from Footlocker. By the way, he just ran sub 15 on an indoor track at NBIN. I've only been around one other runner that was so obviously built more for long distance races like Eddie is and that was Paige Higgins when we were teammates at Kansas. She was an above average distance runner in college, but now has moved up to marathons and has been really successful. She had a similar lack of foot speed, but made up for it with her strength and endurance ability. I would imagine the pace from her 5k cross country times to her half marathon times don't drop too much.

After all of this, I would also say that your post mostly offended me because I'm a math teacher and your statistical analysis was poor. But, also, high school runners should be celebrated on this website (you did say his run was spectacular, but then you wrote 4 paragraphs talking about how his time should be taken with a grain of salt, who are you helping by doing this?) Eddie is a nice guy and a fantastic high school runner, outside of the great Lukas V, I don't think there is another h.s. runner in the country that shows as much promise in the longer distances, 10k primarily.

And to Dick, Eddie's coaches have taken a runner at a school and in a league that has never had any real success and have helped produce one of the top runners in the nation. Keep in mind he's doing his training in downtown Brooklyn on concrete and at a bad outdoor track facility. Maybe they should be stroking their egos (it's plural, no apostrophe). When he gets to the green grass and crushed gravel of Princeton, he will explode.

While you guys are arguing about the benefit of the wind, the omega male is banging your wife.

@Pete Prince

Regardless of the anecdotal "evidence" that I mentioned, the basis of my post was the formula for wind speed and how it related to Eddie's time. Nor do I think everybody ran 4-5 minutes faster because of the wind - per the formula, on average a 2-4 minute benefit was achieved with diminishing returns as you get faster - but yes, everybody benefitted from the wind, just not everybody was in PR shape that day. It's the same as Drug Trials, candidates are screened out as possible examples of worthy test subjects if they do not meet certain criteria - in this case, it's impossible to see the effect the tailwind had on a person's time unless they set a PR because only then do you have a baseline to compare to.

With regards to where the wind was calculated, you'd have to ask NYRR where they get their data from. My assumption is in Central Park since the National Weather Service has a testing site there (the other two in the city are at Laguardia and JFK Airports). That being said, the wind speed in the park is always less than the tunnel effect within the streets of NYC and along the waterfront. So if 12mph is the reading in the park, and a wind tunnel effect is created between the buildings (physics shows that when wind travels between two buildings a positive pressure is created on the entry side and a negative pressure on the exit side, thus forming suction and increased velocity), and then along the water the wind increases even more with the open-water effect of lateral forces, 12mph may very well have been on the low side with larger gusts occurring.

Yes, the route runs east-west from Times Square to the West Side Highway, not to mention it is entirely downhill. The wind will still have an effect because of the positive/negative pressure created within the buildings and the closest negative pressure to that 42nd street location is west at the river's edge rather than the southern-most edge of the city.... so yes, the wind still helped there. Again, physics (this is like math, right?).

I see where you're going with your argument regarding wind effect during the first loop, but I do not believe it is relevant. During the opening miles, there is a peloton effect when running with the wind, and when running against the wind it was still early enough that Eddie (and most everybody else) was able to benefit from other runners being nearby to draft off of. I'm sure he is a smart enough runner to tuck in behind somebody - and in doing so would be able to duck most of the headwinds he'd face. It was only later in the race that he had vast separation from the people in front of him and behind him, but at that point, there is no need to draft. So no, I do not believe the open loop had an effect on his pace.

I'm not questioning that Eddie has improved since Footlocker - he ran a sub-15 5K indoors a few weeks ago. But again, that was indoors and on the fastest track in the country. His Footlocker race is more applicable because he trained specifically for it, tapered for it, was racing against his age-group peers (scholastic pride on the line) thus giving what a max effort would be. I just do not believe though that Eddie would have hit the same time he did on Sunday if it had not been for the tailwind - he'd have gotten a PR for certain because he was in shape to do so, but his jump was too much based on recent races (and no, a 9:09 indoor race is not comparable because of the perfect conditions).

I'm (not really) sorry I offended you with my statistical analysis, but calling it poor is a stretch. Maybe you should have your 9th-12th grade math classes do a semester-long project to statistically analyze the race and you can teach them how to do it properly. I never thought of turning this into a research project by analyzing a statistically relevant number of runners, but since you want them, here are a number of local elites that set PR's that day (it's easy to check past performances for NYRR races on their website):

Local Elites New PR Old PR

Gian-Paul Caccia (NYAC) 1:04:46 1:10:10

Jorge Real (AMPM) 1:07:52 as a 40yo 1:08:56

Peter Quinzio (NYAC) 1:09:48 1:13:37

JP Montes (NBR) 1:12:58 1:16:34

Rob Gill (CPTC) 1:13:43 1:19:12

Ricardo Cualhuizo (WSX) 1:13:26 1:16:46

Reilly Kiernan (F) (NYAC) 1:13:44 1:20:06

Fabio Cassadio (WS) 1:14:21 1:17:23

Joshua Korth (FRNY) 1:15:09 1:18:39

Betsy Burke (F) (NYAC) 1:16:52 1:23:13

And I guess finally, if you're upset that I'm not celebrating him on this website (which by the way I did congratulate him on his race time), perhaps his coach, Mr. Busch, should not go beating his chest saying that he set the American Record until he gets confirmation from USATF. Mr. Busch opened Eddie's time up to analysis by posting it on Letsrun, and Eddie's other coach, Mr. Montes, goes on a rampage (As a HS teacher and coach, were you offended by his demeanor?). However, even if the time saved was only 88secs like you suggest along the West Side Highway, would that be enough to get the American Record like his coach is trumpeting?

FWIW, people are also talking about Galen Rupps splits on another thread, and even Malmo is reminding them to take it with a grain of salt because of the tailwind. Do you want to discuss the merits of a tailwind with Malmo?

@ MD...one quick point. Most of the local elites don't really race other 1/2s in the year. They run for team points. Like those NYAC kids. I know they jogged Grete's (which is previous PR) and raced the NYC 1/2. Not comparable.

@local elite,

Perhaps you're correct, but look at their other recent times at different distances and they likely do not extrapolate to their HM PR for the day.

Gian-Paul Caccia, a truly gifted runner, was racing for the win at Coogan's (team points race) a few weeks back and posted a 14:46 - he was out-kicked at the end of Coogan's & in the video NYRR had posted, it showed him fighting all the way so it was no half-effort. Plug his 14:46 into McMillan's calculator (yes, this only gives *comparable* performances) and it turns up 1:08:15 for the HM.

Yet at NYC HM, he busts-out a 1:04:46??? That's a hell of a performance drop in time for a race that is likely less important than team races.

why don't you use GPC's 1:06:02 in houston in january (when he had asthma issues at mile 10 and staggered in the last 5K) as a better barometer of his current 1/2 fitness level instead of stroking yourself over a hilly 5k time that he trained through? it would behoove you to get your facts right before posting again.

Gian ran 1:06 in Houston after being on 1:05 pace for a large portion of the race. So, finally dipping just under 1:05 was not unreasonable.

i think the junior record is 44.50 or something along those lines he is still a ways off but if he can hold it for another couple of laps he is looking at a 4:28 mile the 1:11 would only be 4:44 however...

clearly i know you are talking about the half... The junior world is 58 or 59 he is no place close the us junior is along the lines of 1:04

The NYC HM - a professional race and a great opportunity to go after the much coveted Olympic Trials standard, is certainly NOT less important than a routine team race that has no tangible value.

M.D. wrote:

Yet at NYC HM, he busts-out a 1:04:46??? That's a hell of a performance drop in time for a race that is likely less important than team races.

Mile 10 (42nd street) was into the wind heading to the west side. The last 3 miles headed south on the West Side Highway, not 4. Heading up the west side in the park there was a headwind as well. Wind is also not constant (direction or magnitude). No way was there a constant tailwind of 10 mph or whatever it was the last few miles. DUH!!

Folks...bottom line....if you think the wind did not aid in these times and if you think this course is not short....then you clearly don't think!

I know we all want to believe in these times, which are unbelievable. But at some point in your life you just have to say "no, I don't think there is a Santa Claus."

As far as JP and Mr. Bush, I am gonna help you to become better coaches..."THERE IS NO EASTER BUNNY!"

MD,

GPC ran 1:06 in Houston... so 1:04:46 isn't a huge drop. He also ran 30:07 for 10k cross in December, crushing guys like Zach Hine and Mike Morgan from Hansons (both 1:04:low guys) so he clearly gets better as the distance goes up and has shown he can compete at that level.

Rob Gill just ran 15:59 at Coogans. 15:59 according to Mcmillan lines up with... 1:13:53... Rob ran 1:13:43.

Reilly Kiernan ran 16:50 at Coogans, ran at 2 NCAA cross meets, and has a 16:20 5k PR. Women tend to be far superior at longer distances then shorter distances, so the 1:13:44 doesn't surprise me given her 5k.

Peter Quinzio ran 53:59 at Cherry Tree, which is worth about a 1:11:30. Nice PR to get down to 1:09:48, but certainly not an outlier from someone who is clearly on a steep improvement curve... 1:16, 1:13, 53:59 since the bronx half in August, and yes, run under ideal conditions.

I can name other guys who provide counter examples to what you did.

For example:

Runner #1- 1:14:58 PR at Grete's Gallop (2 loops of park), 1:14:24 PR Sunday. I would say the Grete's time is relatively superior.

Several people I know that have PRs in the 1:13-1:14 range ran between 1:13 and 1:16 on Sunday.

OR how about Meb, Abdi, Ryan? How much do you think the wind helped them?

Don't get me wrong... it was a GREAT day to run fast. Great competition, great weather, great time of year to be fit... those factors SHOULD lead to PRs.

To say that the wind had some kind of astronomical advantage is definitely not accurate, imho. Did the overall weather help (cool, nice breeze down the wsh)? Yeah... of course it did. For people who did both Philly and NYC, the times seems to more or less line up. Did some exogenous factor aid Philly times?

In conclusion, most of the people you mentioned did not have outlier times when lined up properly with other race distances... including our friend, Eddie. I would expect that on any reasonable course, with the same competition, with reasonable weather (let's call it no wind), Eddie would come very close to that time again.

I ran and I will agree that it was a good day to run fast.

Reilly is legit. she ran 19:49 for 6k at Bay Area XC this january, finishing just behind Magda and ahead of Nicole Blood. But 1:13 is really fast. I don't know if she's that fast.