Haile and Meb Rejoice - Lel Continues To Be Snakebitten & Withdraws from 2010 ING NYC Marathon

What?

He did note the asthma which means he doesn't think Geb will be healthy.

I think it's tough to go against Kwambai- 10 years younger and a lot fresher.

depending on how haile feels i think he will run 2:06-2:09. if he runs the 2:06 i don't think meb has much chance... if he's 2:08-2:09 it will be an interesting race.

I do believe he will finish, but not first. The course of New York is definetely not favoring him plus the lack of pacemakers will make it completely different. I don´t think he will attack on 1st Avenue and keep the pace up till the finish. He has so far only fared well in the Marathon when the race was set up for him. I eam really sad to learn that Lel will not run but there are still plenty of others who will give him a big challenge. Winning the Great North run was defintely a show he is in great shape but like I said this course is flat and practically downhill. We will see who is right. Until now when he had to race his competitors like in London he had no chance at all whether it was dry or humid. I have been to those race in London where he tried to win. Only after the last failed attempt he came up with the excuse of Asthma. Since then he hasn´t run anymore in London but Dubai.

bikila02 wrote:

Winning the Great North run was defintely a show he is in great shape but like I said this course is flat and practically downhill.

Hmmmm........not so sure about that. I agree that there is a net elevation loss during the course, but to say the Great North "is flat and practically downhill" is like saying that Boston "is flat and practically downhill".

Topo map in bottom right corner of JPEG -

Kwambai will probably blow up again; he hasn't had a solid marathon performance since his 2:04:27 in Rotterdam. He did have that 59:xx half last year, but look at what happened a month later in New York. However, if Kwambai does pull it all together, it'd be very interesting to see if he pushed Geb; remember, he's the one who pushed Geb to his WR in Berlin.

Geb has shown he's got the speed (59:xx half @ GNR), and the ability to finish fast in a "slow" marathon (2:06 Dubai). The only way he'll lose is if he goes out faster than 1:03 the first half. I predict somewhere between 2:06:30 - 2:07:15.

How can you compare the two races? Between 3,5k and 5k there is an elevation gain of a mere 20 meters or about 60 feet. I don´t call this a hill. This is a bump in the road for professional runners which they hardly feel. They may lose a couple of seconds on this 1,5k but that is all. That is why I called it flat or even downhill course because of the elevation loss. This loss prevents it even to make it into the recored books of the IAAF. Same like in Lisbon where they changed course in order to finally make it into the books.

MarathonMind wrote:

He did note the asthma which means he doesn't think Geb will be healthy.

I think it's tough to go against Kwambai- 10 years younger and a lot fresher.

Correct. I dont know how good the air is in NYC, but he pulled up last year didn't he? Ok the "Appearance Money" comment might have come off as being snide and so My post sounded snide as well. But I think that Geb will pull up if he isn't doing well and has no real shot for the win.

Why should he run the whole race and lose(if it appears he will lose) when he can have an excellent workout at 25K on Marathon Pace and still collect his money and make the trip worthwhile? On another thread, some guy--I think from Canada-- was saying about Ryan Hall that you only get a couple shots a year at the Marathon. At Geb's age he should not spend himself on a losing effort or an off time (unless he will win) when he can have the benefit of a good training run and save himself for another Marathon (like Dubai)

I have high regard and respect for Geb. But I dont think he has to be stupid about racing. Some of the people on this board are idiot purists who say crap like "So he broke his leg at mile 22. A real man would have finished the race." This is the kind of tripe that was said about German (I know it is a different topic, but it is a mindset of some posters) when he fell two seasons ago. Anyway, I think Geb would be smart to drop out if its obvious he can't win around the 25K mark. I believe he just might have problems with NYC just like last time.

wehuh wrote:

What about Bairu? I bet he has a pretty solid one.

Hells yes.

Bairu for the win.

You heard it here first.

Okay what is with everyone thinking Haile cannot handle hills at all?

Latest viewpoint on this coming from that article on the front page on Ritz, saying that Haile has more trouble with courses with hills etc. Why do people think he can't do hills? Seriously what the hell? People think that Ritz is going to beat him because Ritz is better at hills?

Okay first check the record for both athletes. Ritz had a bronze at World Junior Cross. Haile has a second place finish at World Junior Cross. Also, he's finished in the top 7 in the 4 senior races he's done, the highest finish being 3rd in Budapest. Does third place in world cross mean you can't do hills? Oh man Tadese finished third in 2008 he most suck at hills, and don't even mention Ebuya because he finished fourth...

Plus, Haile even responded to people asking him about hills, where he said “Uphills and downhills are part of running. The hills in New York are nothing compared to what we have in Ethiopia.” (click here if you don't believe me

http://www.ingnycmarathon.org/haile_nyc.htm

)

The stupid misconception should have ended there, yet it's still in that stupid article that Haile has trouble with hills. What, are you referring to London where he dropped out because he was sick and had problems with his stomach? Bekele dropped out of World Cross in 2007 because he was sick, does that mean he sucks at hills? Are you referring to when Haile dropped out of the NYC Half Marathon this past year? Um he had problems with his asthma, and he has the COURSE RECORD in NY for the Half Marathon so he has no problem.

Ritz isn't better than Haile at hills, and if Haile is healthy Ritz doesn't have a chance at beating him, end of discussion. And no, Bairu isn't going to win either.