Oklahoma State recruits

if german is healthy you know he is a top 10 guy. He may even contend for the title. If any of you guys remember he breezed a 7:49 3k in Feb after basically no training. This is the same guy who ran 3:55 in FEB after taking THE MONTH OFF IN DECEMBER. German is beast. OK State has been a contender team for the past couple of years now. Teams like that just don't go away after 1 year. You are talking about having a Fifth man at 3:42? That is the mark of a top 10 team. Maybe not the favorite but def a top 10 team. Who else outside of the top 3 teams has that much depth. W&M ? Iona? I think the team title will be something like Stanford/NAU/Oregon/OK State and don't ever count out Colorado too. They were looking like a trophy team for a bit last year and they had a young team.

Agreed - German, if healthy is top 5.

Agreed - OK State has been a contender for the past couple of years.

Disagree - Teams like that just don't go away after one year. This is an absurd claim. They 'go away' when their runners go away. They just lost two of their top three from last year's championship team. They now have one consistent top gun (Lowe) two very inconsistent talents (Fernandez, Mecheso) and a bunch of folks who might have some nice track times at much shorter distances and are probably great kids but have done nothing to show that they can be top 50.

Agreed - Probably a top 10 team

Who else has depth? - Oregon, NAU, Colorado, Oklahoma, Stanford all have considerably more depth than OSU. Alabama, Iona, Virginia, Wisconsin all have as good or better depth than OSU. Others are not far behind.

Top ten finish - probable

Top eight finish 50-50

Top five finish - remote chance

Top three finish - no chance

PDXTrack wrote:

Even then, these three will most likely be red-shirted and not help this upcoming fall...that's the "normal" way of how Dave works it...

The first thing we teach them is to run very slowly, then we will teach them to not run at all.

This is what we are doing with German.

So Dreams, you are predicting that Oklahoma State will be the third best team in the Big 12 behind Colorado and Oklahoma because OSU lacks depth?

b/man 5km results?

As a Freshman German was picked to win, okay, that may have been unrealistic but 3rd was not out of the question.

Now two years later he should get top 5?

What the hell is going on in Stillwater? Badwater?

He needs to Webb up. He could certainly talk Nike into $150-$200K if he agreed to join Salazar and then get his degree from one of the Portland based Universities.

He went to Ok State for money, needed the full ride. So if money was the #1 thing, he stands to lose money by staying there.

The longer he fails or shows inconsistency, injury, mind problems etc the less marketable he becomes and the less any shoe company will want to pay him.

He could probably get good money now by agreeing to go with Alberto since Alberto is a mind and soul healer as well as a great coach and Nike would believe that the kid could actually get back to running and fulfill some of the greatness he showed coming in.

Webb and Rupp for 1500-5K training could be amazing for German, but more importantly they have the resources to get his mind and body right.

Not As Old NDN Runner wrote:

So Dreams, you are predicting that Oklahoma State will be the third best team in the Big 12 behind Colorado and Oklahoma because OSU lacks depth?

I think that Colorado will come in ahead of OK State

I give Oklahoma a 50-50 shot of coming in ahead of OK State

And, yes, lack of depth is the Cowboys' weakness. Of course, they could have both German and Girma at full strength and they could have a couple more folks make big gains (but that won't be Prentice, Stublaski or Fleming).

Obviously one doesn't know until they race. How many people could have predicted that Stanford would have bombed so completely last year after dominating all season? That's why they run the races.

But if I'm betting, I'd say Colorado is a pretty safe bet to beat OSU at nationals, Oklahoma has an even chance. And teams like Stanford, NAU and Oregon are virtual certainties to come in ahead of OSU.

I hope that these ridiculous posts are meant as jokes. Either that is true or someone on the OSU staff does not want the pressure. OSU has insane depth this season. You will see. I would be shocked if they do not win.

jokes wrote:

I hope that these ridiculous posts are meant as jokes. Either that is true or someone on the OSU staff does not want the pressure. OSU has insane depth this season. You will see. I would be shocked if they do not win.

You'd be shocked? How unlikely does an outcome have to be to shock you? For me I'd say if I consider an event 90% likely to happen then perhaps I would be shocked when it does not.

Naturally, it is not fair for me to determine your "shock zone", which is why I ask. But presumably an event must have a much lower than 50% chance of happening in order for it to shock you - so you must think it much more than 50% likely that OSU will repeat as national champions in 2010. No?

If so, I'd love to take you up on that bet.

Four OSU guys are potentially top 15: Colby, German, Girma, and Tom Farrell (3:42, 7:58, 50th at World Junior Cross two years ago). Last year, three freshmen placed between 26 and 41. Between the freshman studs and other returners, OSU could be able to find a top 40 guy. Colorado should be really good, but some of the teams you mentioned, like Oklahoma, don't have guys who can score low enough to compete well at nationals.

Farrell isn't a top 15 guy. He was way down at World cross this year

Is Kyle Gibson still on the team? I don't see him listed on the roster.

2010 Jamboree Results

1 Girma Mecheso 23:46.17 (2009 - 24:38)

5 Colby Lowe 24:28.59 (2009 - 23:54)

6 German Fernandez 24:28.74

7 Tom Farrell 24:28.80

9 Johnathan Stublaski 24:47.82 (2009 - 24:31)

11 Matthew McElroy 24:55.69

13 Joseph Manilafasha 25:00.51 (2009 - 25:13)

20 Shane Moskowitz 25:17.36

23 Sean Fleming 25:25.77 3:11

Ryan Prentice DNS (2009 - 24:54)

Good news - Bad news for OK State NCAA hopes

Good news - Girma is clearly in pretty good form early on. Most likely GF and CL were just pacing Farrell and (from all reports) they seem to be healthy as well. All three at full strength is a top three that can hang with anyone else's top three.

Bad news - Nobody else seems all that likely to step up to the level necessary to be a contender. Stublaski and Manilafasha aren't much different than a year ago when Stublaski finished 123rd at Nats. Farrell was most likely the one that Lowe and Fernandez were waiting for during the Jamboree and he only ran 2.5 seconds better than Stublaski did last year. McElroy only ran as fast as Prentice did his freshman year as well as last year and Moskowitz was behind that.

Where's that #4 and #5?

It still seems pretty clear to me that these folks are not really contenders for the podium (let alone a repeat championship) at Nationals. With the big three healthy, however, they should be at the top end of the range (maybe #5).

And it is hard to believe that the coaches' poll does not reflect the fairly obvious reality.

Last year coming into NCAA'S Standord looked like they would score under 50 points. Oregon did not look like a top five team. Stanford was 10th and Oregon almost won it.

They race have to be run. Heck, I though OSU could score 30 last year based on what their top five had done before. I was wrong. Now, I know the race has to be run. As Smith stated 2-years ago all the stars have to be alined perfect to win NCAA'S. All the teams have to count on five of their seven runners to have a good day on the same day.

So to say that top three is not going to happen for OSU is just you making a guess.

Shane Moskowitz has a history of under performing throughout the season and then really showing up at the end and being amazing, he may continue this in college.

"Last year coming into NCAA'S Standord looked like they would score under 50 points. Oregon did not look like a top five team. Stanford was 10th and Oregon almost won it.

They race have to be run. Heck, I though OSU could score 30 last year based on what their top five had done before. I was wrong. Now, I know the race has to be run. As Smith stated 2-years ago all the stars have to be alined perfect to win NCAA'S. All the teams have to count on five of their seven runners to have a good day on the same day.

So to say that top three is not going to happen for OSU is just you making a guess."

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It is pretty common for an excellent runner to have the wheels come off the day of the big race. It is a whole lot less common to have a mediocre runner suddenly sprout wings at Nats.

No, it is not just a guess. It is an informed, unbiased assessment that is 95% likely to prove to be true.

You missed Jeff Arnier in 16th and 25:03. He ran unnattached.

"Shane Moskowitz has a history of under performing throughout the season and then really showing up at the end and being amazing, he may continue this in college."

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Ok...but this is college now, not high school.

Not gonna happen wrote:

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It is pretty common for an excellent runner to have the wheels come off the day of the big race. It is a whole lot less common to have a mediocre runner suddenly sprout wings at Nats.

No, it is not just a guess. It is an informed, unbiased assessment that is 95% likely to prove to be true.

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You're just like the rest of us guessing and hoping. You can not predict how runners or teams will perform.

As much as I wanted OSU to win last year I never thought Standford would have six of its seven runners under perform. I felt I had studied all race results, I felt informed.

My hope was OSU would win but my assessment was Stanford would win easly, I was 99% sure. I was wrong and my guessing and hoping won out.

So as informed as you think you are, your assessment is likely to be 95% wrong.

Will just have to wait until the third Monday in November.

So is going to happen.