Sub 2 Hour Marathon

Really think so? wrote:

Is there reason to doubt the human body is not -- cleanly -- capable of today's WRs?

Couldn't the argument be made that the best today are clean and that their improved performances, relative to past decades, are largely due to psychological gains? That is, seeing others break barriers (sub-4 mile, sub 13-5000, etc.) leads to others doing the same? Whether a lot of the 90s times are PED enhanced -- and thus whether a lot of barriers were broken while the athletes were enhanced -- is irrelevant to the question of whether the athletes are using PEDs today. For all we know, they *could* be clean. Although El G hasn't been matched in MD, KB set WRs in the 2000s after the oft-cited 90s gains.

I agree, I don't think that El Gerrouj or Gebreselassie were doped. Humans can run much faster still without PED's, I am 100% sure of that.

dasfasd@hasd.com wrote:

Haile is more like a 26:50 runner.

wellnow wrote:

What kind of athlete will 1.59 take?

Well if Haile was in about 26.30 shape for 10000m then about 25.50 maybe?

If that guy has decent speed, he would need to be doing 20 x 200 in under 26 and longer sessions of similar effort, which is well within the bounds of what we know is possible.

In 2008 when he ran 2.03.59 he was surely in 26.30 shape. Recall that a few weeks earlier he was only 6 seconds behind Bekele in the Olympic 10000m, all that Haile lacked to win a medal was a fast finish.

unlikely wrote:

sthm wrote:

How long do you think it will be before we see a sub 2 hour marathon? Is the first sub 2 guy alive today?

No he is not. Nor will anyone living today see a sub 2 hour marathon.

**************************

It will happen in our lifetime, even if that runner is not born yet.

wellnow wrote:

dasfasd@hasd.com wrote:

Haile is more like a 26:50 runner.

In 2008 when he ran 2.03.59 he was surely in 26.30 shape. Recall that a few weeks earlier he was only 6 seconds behind Bekele in the Olympic 10000m, all that Haile lacked to win a medal was a fast finish.

I am almost certain that if you asked Geb if he was in 26:30 he would have said NO. One reason is that Geb retooled and when he is doing his marathon training he is using a different running style landing further back on his foot, etc. I would be surprised if he could go sub027 although not too surprised.

What? Haile ran 27.06 in Beijing, of course he was in 26.30 shape, didn't you see the race.

Do you really think he ran 2.03.59 without being in awesome 10000m shape?

I'd have to agree, Geb was in great 10k shape just not quite as "sharp" because of his marathon prep.

To improve 4 mins I would think you need a guy who can run 25.30 for 10k. That would require being able to run 3.24 for 1500m and probably having 1.42 800m speed.

Nicholas Kemboi is probably the prototype. That is if his 26.30 was done clean (a massive leap of faith).

Kemboi ran 1.47.5 as a 17 year old (in Nairobi).

He ran his 26.30 at 19 years old apparently off just 2 months of high level training.

If you could find another like him and send him across to Ethiopia to train under Geb's guidance then he may come close.

I will do it on a zero gravity treadmill.

I doubt he was in 26:30 shape since I don't think anyone in that field other than KB was in 26:30 shape and I remember Haile getting dropped by them.26:50 is pretty awesome 10k shape and more than enough speed to run 2:04.

wellnow wrote:

What? Haile ran 27.06 in Beijing, of course he was in 26.30 shape, didn't you see the race.

Do you really think he ran 2.03.59 without being in awesome 10000m shape?

So you don't expect a 4 min improvement in the next 115 years or so? That seems pretty pessimistic. That is a real long to come up with better equipment (better shoes), training, hitting the day of days, getting a genetic outlier, and so on.

unlikely wrote:

sthm wrote:

How long do you think it will be before we see a sub 2 hour marathon? Is the first sub 2 guy alive today?

No he is not. Nor will anyone living today see a sub 2 hour marathon.

for now:

TADESE will break the WR

then Bekele will break Tadese's WR

He was just born to be broken in 20 years: on September 29th, 2030 reported on 9/30/30

http://www.newsoffuture.com/first_marathon_under_two_hours_future_sports.html

It will take at least that long. Although I personally think the runner is about 4 or 5 years old right now.

I agree about a runner with Paula's marathon:track ratio. But seeing such a monster on the track who doesn't even have speed would blow everyone's minds.

mopak wrote:

Nicholas Kemboi is probably the prototype. That is if his 26.30 was done clean (a massive leap of faith).

Kemboi ran 1.47.5 as a 17 year old (in Nairobi).

He ran his 26.30 at 19 years old apparently off just 2 months of high level training.

Wouldn't that be the world junior record then? I thought the world junior record for 10000m was Samuel Wanjiru with 26:41

OP here, thank you for being the first person in this thread to give a decent response.

Here is another question. Will a man run sub 2:00 before a woman runs sub 2:11?

opie wrote:

OP here, thank you for being the first person in this thread to give a decent response.

The Waterboy wrote:

mopak wrote:

Nicholas Kemboi is probably the prototype. That is if his 26.30 was done clean (a massive leap of faith).

Kemboi ran 1.47.5 as a 17 year old (in Nairobi).

He ran his 26.30 at 19 years old apparently off just 2 months of high level training.

Wouldn't that be the world junior record then? I thought the world junior record for 10000m was Samuel Wanjiru with 26:41

Boniface Kiprop also ran faster than Wanjiru when still aged 19.

One factor no one has mentioned is that we simply might not keep improving.

Western athletes seem to be struggling to improve on the times they were running 20-30 years ago. Bekele aside the African runners have not continued to improve below the half marathon in the last 10-15 years.

The half and full marathon improvements might soon come to a screeching halt.

Western culture is clearly not ideal for distance running development. If African nations take on board more of the West's culture perhaps they will struggle to produce the quantity and quality of runners they currently produce.

wellnow wrote:

It will happen in our lifetime, even if that runner is not born yet.

No it will not

dasfasd@hasd.com wrote:

So you don't expect a 4 min improvement in the next 115 years or so? That seems pretty pessimistic. That is a real long to come up with better equipment (better shoes), training, hitting the day of days, getting a genetic outlier, and so on.

unlikely wrote:

No he is not. Nor will anyone living today see a sub 2 hour marathon.

Sigh... always someone to take a statement and take it to its ridiculous extreme. I suppose it is possible that some child born today who dies as the oldest person alive might see this. But most of us who live normal life spans, I doubt it.

Let's just say you aren't going to see it and neither am I.

Be realistic. Just because it is an "hour barrier", 2 in this case, doesn't mean it will "ever be broken". Then what, 1:55, then 1:50, nope, not gonna happen people. The top runners are currently on the edge, period.

Better shoes, how so? Better training, how so? Better nutrition, really? Better pacing combined with better weather, they've had both.

The current pace of 4:44 per mile is quite a feat in and of itself. To drop almost 10 seconds per mile, 2.5 seconds every quarter of a mile over 26 plus miles, not gonna happen.

The fastest times ever run in the 1/2 marathon should tell you all you need to know. To slow down about a minute and a half, and then do it again for another 13 miles, no way Jose! Have you seen these guys at the finish after breaking 59? They have just put it all out on the table and there's very little to anything left in the tank. Mr. George Malley himself can argue it with me if he chooses, but he'd be wrong.

Haile is right....2:03:30 is quite possible, obviously. Two hours is a whole different animal. Those who argue who would have believed this time or that time 10 years ago forget to mention that as humans, we have limits.....and we are reaching them.

On a certified course (that excludes you Mr. Lindgren), flat as you can get, point to point or back to back, no one reading this response will ever see it happen. Bekele will run fast if he attempts one, but even he is not breaking 2 hours. He could run a half in a sub 58 and I will respond the same way, he's not breaking 2 hours regardless of what the time comparison charts claim.

A marathon is a whole different animal folks, accept it and be grateful that you've gotten to see Haile break 2:04, which was an amazing feat to see.

The 100m and long jump both have limits as well, we are humans, not machines that can add 2 more horsepower whenever we choose. Is Usain going to break 8 seconds? I think not and no one is going to break 2 hours.