Asbel Kiprop's Impressive Mile

Chet, I'm not sure if you're getting any of what people are trying to explain to you, but you are almost right on one point. If Asbel Kiprop was Alan Webb, he WOULD be one of the most discussed athletes on this board. This is because Alan Webb has faster times at almost every distance than Asbel Kiprop. In fact, I think Kiprop only has him beat in the 800m, and even then, only by a hair.

Oh, I'm not knocking it, just trying to find something which is perhaps a fairly rare occurrence which might also be something that the poster might be both eager for and capable of...

I mean, to put it another way, you're flailing your arms with excitement because, as you put it, with perfect pacing at 57s Kiprop might have run 3:48 the other day. And then, you bitch and moan because he doesn't get attention like, say, Alan Webb. Alan Webb ran 3:46, so we didn't have to argue whether he could hit 3:48 with perfect pacing.

Asbel Kiprop has run faster at a younger age than Alan Webb and has OLYMPIC GOLD...and yes, I understand and spit out the meaningless drivel proferred by inferior minds...

Yours is truly a dizzying intellect, the product of a superior mind, chet.

I am not flailing my arms...this is the ONLY thread devoted to this topic, and I believed it was warranted. IF that constitutes flailing one's arms, then I guess there is a lot of flailing around here, perhaps enough to provide wind energy for the entire country...I am not moaning, as I simply offered an observation, as Asbel Kiprop has already had a superior career in relation to Alan Webb and Kiprop is not yet 21...

haha, YO (super serial) wrote:Ummm, if you go unbeaten for a f***ing decade you are a f***ing legend. Ventolin, that is whithout a doubt the stupidest shit you have ever posted on this site and that is saying a lot considering the depth of stupidity you have managed to post.

moron

you haven't a clue - learn something idiot

eevn if wins next 3 big golds & 5 littler golds over 1500, but doesn't have a pb better than about 3'29 by end of his career, he will be regarded as little more than a guy who dominated in a piss-weak era

guys like hicham/morceli/noah/bernie woud be turning in their graves if that scenario played out, wishing they were in their 20s in that era, as they couda had all those golds

learn perspective...

silly wabbit wrote:actually you're wrong there vicodin. el g was the master of the long burn (i.e. kicking from 550-600m out). Morceli has a more explosive last lap but usually didn't make his move until 450m to go. true story

no

check the vids

for hicham's 3'26wr, noah wabbited him to ~350m out :

for morceli's 3'27wr, he took the lead 2'10 into the race ~550m+ out

for asbel, who is never likely to have 53/54s last lap speed to finish off an already superfast race, he need to use morceli's race as a template - as a 7'40 guy when much younger & a junior x-country title, he has the strength to run a great pb this way

chet wrote: Again, jerkoff, it was the way Kiprop ran this sub 3:50 that was impressive, going out at 3:38 pace, and then recovering in the middle two laps before closing at 3:44 pace.

Actually, that's how fast miles are run:

"Lap times in 32 world record performances were analysed. Average times for each of the four laps and as percentages of total race time were calculated. RESULTS: The slowest laps in 90% of races were either the second (34%) or the third (56%) laps. In only two (6%) records was the final lap the slowest, whereas in 24 (76%), it was either the fastest (38%) or the second fastest (38%) lap. *****Mean times for the second and third laps were both significantly slower than were times for the first or final laps, but there was no significant difference in times for the first and final lap.*****"

Despite the "conventional wisdom" that you run fastest with perfectly even pacing, experience shows that the fastest races come from going out hard, hanging on for dear life in the middle laps, then kicking for home. (The pattern is even more pronounced for 5000m and 10,000m.) Obviously this last race was a little more uneven than optimal, but probably no worse than perfectly even splits. If you don't go out hard, you've thrown away a few seconds that you can't get back later.

more conjecture for the necessity to usually not allow a wabbit to take you to the bell

if we have a 3'30 goal, then we want 56s the whole way for 56/1'52/2'34/3'30

we often see the 1'52 achieved ( used to be fairly smoothly in the past, but now it tends to be erratically achieved )

the key though is that most wabbits of last few years are piss-poor in taking the elite to the bell & instead of getting there in requisite 2'34, we invariably see 2'35/2'36

this means the pace slowed dramatically between 800 - 1100m & instead of being covered in 56/3'30 pace, the wabbit did it in

57.33/3'35 to 58.66/3'40 pace !!!

this leaves an impossible task for elite to run 3'30 when they hit the bell & it's very rare for them to run better than 3'31 as a result ( it's usually 3'32 )

asbel needs to think about the long drive out...

NO,NO,NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO...

YOU ARE INCAPABLE OF ANALYSIS.

Do you understand what you read?

Please, the fact that the middle laps in world record miles tend to be the slowest is so PALPABLY OBVIOUS it is not necessary to point it out. What we are looking at is the degree of the disparity. You should be capable of understanding that a 56.2, 57.8, 58.0, and 56.0 would yield a 3:48.00 mile, with the pattern of respective lap speeds as demonstrated in your linked abstract. This would be not unusually erratic in pacing, and probably not detrimental in any significant way to the final time. However, when you begin in 54.7, you are digging a bit of a hole, and then running 59.9 and 59.0 before closing in 56.0.

IF YOU COULD ANALYZE INFORMATION, you would realize that if Asbel had begun in 51 and then run 62 and 62 before closing in 54, he'd have run 3:49 in the fast, slow, slow, fast pattern indicated in your linked abstract, and it would be clear to anybody who could think that he'd have to be in 3:46 or faster shape to do it...

flattening out his 4 laps -> ~ 3'47.8

with a likely 1'43.1 current ( he shoud be better than his doha 1'43.4 by now ) -> 3'30.5

----------------------------------------------------------

So he should be faster over 800m, 1500m and the mile?

'to really get the big time he can't rely on just a quick last lap like hicham'

El G needed a fast pace, he couldn't just rely on a fast last lap. Ever hear of Noah Ngeny?

ukathleticscoach wrote:So he should be faster over 800m, 1500m and the mile?

without knowledge of his current 400 & 3k ability it's impossible to say

we know he's run 7'42 years ago as a raw kid - maybe he's good for 7'30 - 7'32.5 now ?

for his 400, any guy who runs 1'43.1 has to have decent 400 speed - i'd reckon close to 47

trying

with 47.00 :

7'32.5 ->1'43.17 , 2'12.66 , 3'29.05 , 3'46.16

he's already run 1'43.17 off non-ideal pace

7'30.0 ->1'42.94 , 2'12.28 , 3'28.23 , 3'45.24

you can input what figures you like & see if any particular line of fit takes your fancy

'to really get the big time he can't rely on just a quick last lap like hicham'

El G needed a fast pace, he couldn't just rely on a fast last lap. Ever hear of Noah Ngeny?

noah did him no favours - hicham was wabbited to the bell "only" in 2'32.8 which is 3'28.4 pace & not on to break morceli's 3'27.3wr

hicham had to put in a stupendous last lap to turn that into a wr - 3'26.00 !!!