1'41 goes begging...

"kip on that day had 1'39 in him off ideal wabbiting/judgement"

you know mate, you have come up with some pretty silly stuff over the years - the Kiprop 800/1500 double at the Worlds argument and the Kiprop "can run 1.41 based on his 1.43 even split" theory but this is right up there.

Dude, have you ever run an 800m before? I mean a serious 800m - under 1 minute 48 seconds?

Kipketer pretty much did get that ideal pacing 10 days later in Köln when he went 49.2, 51.9 so how do you figure he finds another 2 seconds?

Your "2 second differential" argument in this case is absolutely retarded. Yeah for a 1.42 guy running 1.44 its possible 80% of the time (51-53) but as you near the limits of human capability and let's assume the World record is that (duh???) achieving this becomes infinitely more difficult.

So you think he was capable of running 48.75 - 50.75? Think about what you are writing you muppet. Maybe if he had 43.5 400m, 3.40 mile range maybe. Look, he literally went through in 48.7 when he ran 1.41.24 and couldn't close any faster than he did or do you think he was purposely tanking that day to put in action your "2 second differential" another time?

This is like talking 800m running with an over-eager but ill-advised 10th grader.

I think Ventolin is right in that 48.5 that day was far too fast, and had he had say 49.0, he probably would have gone sub 1:41.0.

Having said that, I agree with you that I don't think that race proves he was capable of sub 1:40. He had many attempts at Coe's WR and then improving his own. The more attempts at the record, the more chance all the variables fall into place.

I'm aware of Ventolin's even split formula, which I think has a lot of relevance for 1500 and above, but I'm not sure it is so useful for 100 or 200 splits in an 800m race. That's because 1500m potential works best off even splits, but 800m potential appears to work best with a faster first lap. But then some athletes (e.g Borza - mainly a 400/800 type; & Cram - 800/1500 type) seem to run their best off even splits. Therefore it's hard to apply 1 formula across the board for all athletes and be confident that this would give accurate results.

Then there's Horwill's 4 second rule for 800m. If you have a 48.0 pb for 400m you should be able to add 4 secs to that and then double it, giving 52.0 x 2 = 1:44.0.

If you use that on Kip and Coe, both of whom ran relay legs in mid 45s just prior to their 800 records, which is probably worth 46.2 for a stationary start, then you get mid 1:40 as their potential.

Who knows which formula works!? A lot of it comes down to a feeling of what they could have run.

I personally believe that both Kip in 97 and Coe in 81 were capable of sub 1:41, given decent pacing, company up to 600m and a few attempts at the height of summer. I'm not sure about sub 1:40.

If Coe hadn't got ill in 82 & 83, and had Kip not got malaria in 98, then maybe we would have seen a sub 1:40, but I doubt it.

moron

the berlin 800/1500 were such poor quality global finals, won by guys who weren't even top 3 picks before the champs

if asbel had run with the style & determination of peking he wouda won the 1500 at a canter & looking at the 800, couda won that race, actually won in an appalling 1'45.2 in a derisory race

as for kip's "1'41 based on his 1'43 solo winning run in '97 ", moron, he ran that on 8th august & just 5/7 later ran that incredible 1'41.24

are you soo stoopid that you can't contemplate that if he can run 1'41.24 within 5/7 of a solo 1'43, that he woudn't have been in 1'41 shape, or better for that short span ???

ah yes, the permanent refuge of idiots

"my track knowledge is inversely proportional to my times"

in that case, your opinion means horseshit if any of the 11 kenyans who have run sub-1'43 deign to post on this forum

obviously they have run miles faster than yourself & you know diddly squat compared to them !

because his absolute peak of his career was earlier in the month in zurich 11/7 before

he was holding what post-world champs form he had & even with reduced form, the benefit of a more sensible split in koln allowed him to break the wr

is this concept too complex for you to grasp moron ???

drivel

here are splits of recent wrs provided by editor of t&f news :

leaving out kip's ridiculous zurich race, the differential for the other 3 averages : 2.43

close enough to give substantial weight to 2s split differential argument

no moron, i never said 1'39.5, just a fraction inside 1'40 off say 49.0/51.0

moron

neither kip nor coe nor cruz nor rudy have shown either of those traits but they have all run wrs or close or may do so

if some human human ever had 43.5/3'40 simultaneously, they woudn't just be running 1'39

with

43.5/3'40 ->1'38.13

do you actually think before you spout nonsense ???

he went thru in 48.3

learn something

that split was soo fast that the lactate he'd built up must have been absolutely coruscating for him on the 2nd lap

anyone who saw that race live on tv when they saw that 48.3 split believed it was suicidal & he was going to die a horrible death on the 2nd lap & be lucky to run 1'44

it's a testimony to how good he was that day that he smashed the wr by 0.49s off that unbelievable handicap

moron, you clearly have no clue about this & are way out of your depth

go try impress some kids with dvds of your 1'47 exploits & don't go crying to momma when they say they'd rather see the vids of a 1'44 kenyan

Ventolin is the biggest non-trolling douche in Letsrun. I still remember the time when he tried to argue with Renato Canova. Man, what a idiot.

When will Ventolin realize that he can be, and is usually, wrong? Faster runners think so and so do experienced world class coaches. He's just a guy with no real experience, a calculator, and a 7th grade understanding of math.

writing 'wabbiting' instead of 'rabbiting' isn't endearing or amusing.

666 wrote:Ventolin is the biggest non-trolling douche in Letsrun. I still remember the time when he tried to argue with Renato Canova. Man, what a idiot

no offence, but canova often talks nonsense

i don't know if he has any scientific degree from a recognised university but his post to a reply was so laughable, arguing that there is experimental science & theoretical science & trying to imply that this was the equivalent of discovering e = mc^2, that it was wayyyy too easy to pile into him in case he does get scared off

i've read enough of his posts with his schoolboy grasp of physiology that it's not worth bothering with ( did he ever read arthur guyton & stryer cover to cover for his degree ??? ) - he has a use - giving insights to current form of african athletes - & nothing more - for that, it's not worth burying him

I'm impressed you made ventolin call you a moron 5 times in one post. He managed to slip in idiot and stoopid too.

I think the most I've ever managed is 3.

you are forgetting a coupla points

1) it is likely that kip's alltime peak was in that week of winning athens gold & zurich

it doesn't matter if you race all summer, you only really get just a small window of opportunity in your whole career when you are at your absolute peak & for kip it was that earier part of august '97 - he was far better in zurich than koln

2) that "flattening" method works fine for 800, if you modify it & look for energy equivalents of a 2s differential ( use 1.5s or 2.5s if you like thise better ), but i'm sticking to 2s as that is what consensus seems to be

kip's zurich splits are given as 48.3/52.9 ( wabbit thru in 48.10 & kip just behind - i found the vid that is now on youtube )

his energy for that was

400*(400/48.3)^3 = 227194u

400*(400/52.9)^3 = 172931u

= 400125u

now, from here, you are not looking for best even-paced run 800, but one with a 2s split difference ( or you can try 1.5 or 2.5 or anything that you feel strongly about )

if t is split for 1st lap, then split for 2nd is t+2

putting in formula ->

400*(400/t)^3 + 400*(400/(t+2))^3 = 400125

simplifying :

(400/t)^3 + (400/(t+2))^3 = 1000.3125

now that is an ugly cubic equation to solve, but it is very simple to find a value for t with a coupla minutes on a calculator

put in various values for t & t+2 until you find a value to 0.01s just below energy of 1000.3125

-> 49.44/51.44 for 1'40.88

not much faster

however, from vid, kip went thru 200 in 23.0 ( 46.0 pace ! ) & that adds more variability/energy

so including all his splits

23.0/25.3/26.2/26.7 ->

energy of

200*(200/23.0)^3 = 131503u

200*(200/25.3)^3 = 98800u

200*(200/26.2)^3 = 88964u

200*(200/26.7)^3 = 84059u

= 403326u

using above method of simplifying

(400/t)^3 + (400/(t+2))^3 = 1008.315

-> 49.30/51.30 for 1'40.60

i have to offer an apology - from cursory examination of the figures in the past, i got a 1'40-flat, but doing the detailed calculations, his zurich run was more like

1'40.60

if you can dig out the 200m splits for these & also cruz's 1'41.77, i'll flatten them out for a 2s differential :

Coe's 1:41.73: 49.7/52.0 (2.3)

Kipketer's 1:41.73: 49.6/52.1 (2.5)

Kipketer's 1:41.24: 48.3/52.9 (4.6)

Kipketer's 1:41.11: 49.3/51.8 (2.5)

You know what Ventolin, the biggest concept you don't seem to grasp is that fortunately in running we don't need calculators and whimsical formulae to predict stuff - results speak for themselves.

1) Asbel Kiprop DIDN'T do the double, he didn't get close, in fact he ran 1.52 in a World Champs semi final. Was he capable of doing it? No he wasn't, because he DIDN'T. I could theorise all day that because my PR is well faster than what Alfred Yego ran to win the WC in '07 I "could" have been World Champion had I been in the race. Obviously that is ridiculous.

2) The question of if you have run under 1.48 wasn't related to my athletic ability and knowledge about the 800m, it was more a related to the fact that if YOU had perhaps been an athlete at this level you might understand a little more about the intangible things that go into an athletic performance. As it is all you are is a geek with a calculator and (laugh my arse off) online polynomial calculator. My opinion means more than a 1.44 Kenyan because I am a mechanical engineer who just happened to also run a World Championships, a World Cup, and Olympic Games and for a number of years some of the best meets in the world, so it's fair to say not only am I more intelligent than a "1.44 Kenyan" (bless them), but I am smarter than you. That's why I can take you to pieces - I can literally tell you your mathematical diatribe is complete rubbish and I have practical experience to back it up.

3) Did you ever speak to Wilson about his form back in 1997? I know Wilson reasonably well. In fact I had breakfast with him a couple of times at the Olympic Games in Athens and whenever I ran in Copenhagen I made sure I went and caught up with him. Do you think I as a massive fan of Wilson I didn't ask him these sorts of things (when his best shape was, how fast HE believed he could have run?) Those conversations are special to me and the content isn't getting flashed around on these boards but I can tell you that your stupid calculations are off the mark with respect to what the great man himself believed he was capable of. And sorry but I will take the word of the man himself over some kook with a calculator.

4) You get hung up on the half a second between 1.40.0 and 1.39.5 and yet with regards to your "2 second differential", none of the athletes you mention actually achieve this 2 second differential do they. Coe comes closest at 2.3. When I mentioned that for an athlete to be able to run 48.5/50.5 they would probably have to have 43.5, 3.40 range of course I didn't think about the EXACT times (as prescribed by yet another one of your stupid "performance indicator" calculators) you clown.

5) Clearly out of my depth? Not only am I smarter than you, I actually DID it (with regards to world class 800m running) and have some great personal experiences with the fastest man who ever ran two laps on the face of this earth. Can you do better? No, no you can't.

Furthermore, it is almost comical to expect anyone to believe your crap given you can't even spell and on occasions make little grammatical sense. After reading your posts my flatmate actually went as far to suggest that you are just out here winding people up such is your bs. I had to inform him that tragically, it's not the case.

Because that's essentially all you are - a tragic little fool who is not even worth the time any more.

err..

yeah moron

& when we have results, we analyse them to see what the intrinsic merit is under ideal circumstances, or didn't they teach you that at kindergarden ?

moron

did you not realise asbel has an OLYMPIC GOLD MEDAL around his neck

he also has run 1'43.17

how dare you compare your pathetic exploits to an olympic champion or to a world champion with a 1'42.67pb !!!

moron

i have been watching/attending top class sport since before you were born

i've watched virtually every big euro meet on satellite of past 25y

i watched ben koech run 1'43.17 as a 19y ole in rieti with such ease that he looked like he was going to be the next champ, no question

i saw kiptanui break aouita's 3k wr with such free-spirited running that it was a shock he didn't go onto re-write the record books instead of geb/komen

countless more...

tell me when you have witnessed a fraction of these to assess the quality of horseflesh

the audacity !

forgive me, but i piss on mechanical engineers

anyone who went to school in my era & was brightest in their class went to study medicine - it appears the same thinking goes on 30y later

anyone dumber had to pick up scraps with engineering/chemistry/biochem/physiology etc

i'm sorry, but you ain't impressing anyone with mechanical engineer crap, when MDs are your contemporaries

as for 1'44 kenyans - i'll take their opinion anytime over a jacked up 1'47 guy

excuse me ???

put your money where your mouth is mr engineer & offer a mathematical critique

or shut the f*** up moron !

yes, the veritable

"i talked to x, but i'm not saying nothing" crap

this isn't a state secret

if any of your crap is genuine, you'd be shouting his words from the rooftop

i knew the greatest kenyan runner of them all when i was younger - kip keino - a guy with 2 olympic golds & wrs at 3k & 5k

i'm not witholding anything he told me - last time was 20y ago

he told me jim ryun was greatest runner he ever saw before or after the '60s - albeit before hicham's era, & he woud never have beaten a prime ryun of '67 shape & was the main reason he dabbled in 5k, where he broke the wr, as it was easier to beat clark than ryun

he also said he was in shape of his life in mexico as kenyans had set up a special training camp for the 1st time & he got weeks of solid training in, something he'd never before had - my dad was his boss & coudn't give him time off without govt permission

he reckoned he couda gone 3'31/3'32 at sea-level in mexico shape, but he never was in that shape after

& seeing as you are talking completely unsubstantiated waffle, i'd await the organ grinder's opinion, not the monkey

& see coe visibly wilt in the stretch

ask him to run it again & undoubtedly he'd say he wished he'd gone out slower, nearer 50.0/75.5

moron

i'm interested in precision, or didn't they teach you this concept at your obviously crappy engineering college

if you can't offer precision, then f*** off as you bring nothing to the table

read above moron

please, spare us your 1'47 exploits

i'm interested only in world class performers

yes, a kenyan with 2 golds

your flatmate ???

seems to me more like running to your momma !

then kindly f*** off & talk to me when you can bring some hard science to the table - otherwise don't waste my time

Ventolin^x I like you

si stitchup, thanks for your very interesting and informative post. Don't argue with ventolin anymore though because that is like arguing with a retarded monkey, you can make all the great points but that damn monkey will still be drooling all over themselves and babbling about something.

I say carry on arguing.

Ventolin going off on one is pretty damn funny.

MORON.

ventolin^3 wrote:

if you can dig out the 200m splits for these & also cruz's 1'41.77, i'll flatten them out for a 2s differential :

Coe's 1:41.73: 49.7/52.0 (2.3)

Kipketer's 1:41.73: 49.6/52.1 (2.5)

Kipketer's 1:41.24: 48.3/52.9 (4.6)

Kipketer's 1:41.11: 49.3/51.8 (2.5)

Well, Cruz's 1:41.77 was off 49.7/52.0 (52.1, depending if you round up)

His 200m splits are listed as 23.8, 49.7 (25.9), 75.8 (26.1) and 26.0.

Now, I haven't got the race, but the 600m time seems a little suspect if the 700m split given in AW (with those above) of 1:28.1 is correct. That would imply a 12.3 100m stretch around the last curve, followed by a 13.7 last 100m in the straight. That doesn't sound quite right to me, but is plausible. Remember though that he had drafting (49.53 at bell) and James Robinson taking him up to 550m on the back straight. If all things are equal in comparing the runs of the 3, then he would have gained about 0.37 there.

Kipketer's 1:41.73 (again, I don't have this race - isn't on Youtube at present- using splits from a book)

49.6/52.1 - 24.0, 49.61 (25.6), 1:16.2 (26.6) & 25.5 (ahead just after 400m)

Kipketer's 1:41.24

48.4/52.8 - 23.1, 48.4 (25.3), 1:14.2 (25.8) & 27.0 (ahead from just beyond 400m)

Kipketer's 1:41.11

49.3/51.8 - 23.9, 49.3 (25.4), 1:14.5 (25.2) & 26.6 ( drafting up to 550m)

Now Coe's 1:41.73 is the only race which doesn't have a running clock on the videotape, and I'm not sure what exactly his 200m splits were, because even on a very clear copy I have of the race, there is no obvious 200m line or marker. At the time the splits were given as 24.6, 25.3 (49.9), 25.1 (75.0) & 26.7.

Years later they were subsequently changed to 24.4, 25.3 (49.7), 25.3 (75.0) & 26.7, with no apparent explanation. Also of course there was the whole issue of the electronic clock mal functioning that night for that race and using a photo cell. First it was given as 1:41.72, then a long time later changed to 1:41.73. I know at the time the official hand time keepers had him at 1:41.5 and 1:41.6.

Whenever I've hand timed it I always get 49.7 for the first lap and 51.8 (1:41.5) for the second, which is 0.2 out on the 52.0. I'm not so sure how precise that photo cell was! I got 1:41.9 for Rudisha's Oslo run, so about 0.1 is usually the difference between hand and electronic, but I guess it could be 0.2.

Anyway, more interestingly, if you time him from a distinct spot near the 200m mark from the first lap to the same spot on the second, you get 51.0, not 50.6 that the updated "official" splits imply. Indeed, when you look at it enough times, where he reaches the spot at 24.4, he doesn't hit that same spot until 1:15.4 on the second lap. If you take his 600m time as being 1:15.0, well he hits that mark at 24.0 on the first lap! I don't think they actually had someone taking 200m splits on the track; I mean if the electronic timing wasn't working, then how can any 200m splits be accurate?; and that they have somewhat "guessdemated" them. The only split I'm confident is accurate is the 49.7 at the bell.

I get the impression they were more like - 24.2, 49.7 (25.5), 75.2 (25.5) & 26.4 for a 1:41.6 hand time, or 26.5 going with the photo cell 1:41.7.

It's also worth noting Coe had to run wide on the curve to get round Konchellah, which must have cost him 0.2. That would have given him 49.7/51.7 (hand timed 1:41.4) or 49.7/51.8 (electronic 1:41.5), pretty much spot on the 2 sec differential you mentioned.

Kip's 4.4- 4.6 differential is certainly the biggest though!

Yes Kipketer's 1:41.24: 48.3/52.9 (4.6) suggests Kip was capable of around 1:40 with even pacing

Is this the nerdiest thread in Letsrun history?

look, i like ventolin about as much as i like getting roundhouse kicked in the face 20 times by chuck norris. but i have to agree with him in this case. he's not criticizing rudisha and kaki. he's saying that they could have run faster with more ideal pacing.

World Traveler..... wrote:

ventolin^3 wrote:

another ridiculous wabbit job with wabbit charging out in front at break with rudy chasing a mirage...

it was effectively, again a solo run, worth at least 1/2s better with a wabbit who actually dragged him thru in 49.5 kicking heels...

rudy got battered on back stretch of 2nd lap running into winds reported earler as 1.6, weakening him in stretch, so 5m+ gap to kaki shrunk to 1m at finish

another terrible race...

D-bag of of June, and the month is young.

Give the athletes a break, it is the first big meet of the season.

And, what's your PR, smart ass?

Kenyans sure seem like good pace makers in recent marathons like Berlin for instance. That one pace maker went through 30K with Geb right under world record pace. Are you only referring to distance track races?