After watching the video I'd say AJ looked very controlled and ready for 8:45 in a non crowded race. The problem is it looks like he can only lead with his right leg which will mean stutter stepping and losing ground on corner barriers.
NCAA's could be tough because the stuttering and making up those little couple meters of lost ground add up and sting over the last 600 when people start kicking.
If he sits back and stays wide he could eat up good deal of the field though.
jkjoregon wrote:
It was quite clear if you were actually at the meet that he dropped out because it was PLANNED. He looked quite pleased with his effort and he looked good!
This....he kept looking over at the timers and talking to them, he was quite smooth and looked like there was very little effort to this...he was clearly in there as a pacer.
People that contiually kill Acosta on here make me sick.
Coming out of HS as an 8:40's mid to high two miler and a FL guy, I am wondering how many thought he would go 3:39 and make finals left and right and run legs on national type DMRs almost all the time.
He was a 3:46 guy once if that at HS level.
What the heck do you want, he make mile finals, 1500 finals and runs 3:39.x, plus big leg at Penn.
Look at his record, forget XC, he has never been what I thought he would be there either, but on the track?
Stop with the bull shit, his record is better than folks that should be killing people.
M.C. Confusing wrote:
This....he kept looking over at the timers and talking to them, he was quite smooth and looked like there was very little effort to this...he was clearly in there as a pacer.
How many pacers have paced from 3rd pace? He was struggling.
Boo-lami wrote:
M.C. Confusing wrote:This....he kept looking over at the timers and talking to them, he was quite smooth and looked like there was very little effort to this...he was clearly in there as a pacer.
How many pacers have paced from 3rd pace? He was struggling.
While he was not the "pacer" (he didn't say he was) you need to see an optomitrist if you think he was struggling physically when he pulled out at the pre planned point. He had a lot left despite wasting some energy on several barriers and the water pit.
Vin wanted to give him a test without risking failure (the blowup that many see in the last 400-800 of a steeple). Mission accomplished and guessing by how he looked at 2K he could have closed down to 8:50-8:55 from that point. You can pretty much tell when a steepler is going to stuggle the last 1K coming into 2K and it's not when they are looking around, encouraging the guys behind him and easily accelerating down the backstretch. You can hate on the guy all you want but it's about as constructive as the guys who said that Galen would never go under 27:30. AJ is probably as good or better 1500 and 5K runner than any collegiate steepler right now and apparently he can go with the uneven rythim and take a water jump. That adds up to making you dissappointed.
The question is how much better will he be next time and in handling 8:40 pace with a crowded field. I think we'll get that answer in the next few weeks?
Perspectivation wrote:
While he was not the "pacer" (he didn't say he was) you need to see an optomitrist if you think he was struggling physically when he pulled out at the pre planned point. He had a lot left despite wasting some energy on several barriers and the water pit.
Vin wanted to give him a test without risking failure (the blowup that many see in the last 400-800 of a steeple). Mission accomplished and guessing by how he looked at 2K he could have closed down to 8:50-8:55 from that point. You can pretty much tell when a steepler is going to stuggle the last 1K coming into 2K and it's not when they are looking around, encouraging the guys behind him and easily accelerating down the backstretch. You can hate on the guy all you want but it's about as constructive as the guys who said that Galen would never go under 27:30. AJ is probably as good or better 1500 and 5K runner than any collegiate steepler right now and apparently he can go with the uneven rythim and take a water jump. That adds up to making you dissappointed.
The question is how much better will he be next time and in handling 8:40 pace with a crowded field. I think we'll get that answer in the next few weeks?
If I disagree with an Oregon Dick fan that makes me a hater? AJ was 6:03 at the 2k mark, than means he would have to run 8:21 pace over the last kilo to finish in 8:50. Not going to happen.
Any tool can showboat with a kilometer left in a steeplechase. It's disrespectful.
I agree with the other poster who was actually at the meet. The knowledgeable fans were mostly of the opinion that AJ has made great improvement since his last Steeple effort. He looked great on some of the jumps and stutter stepped on others, but is definitely improving quickly. Most noticeable was the fact that he really seemed to be into it this time, and enjoyiing himself. When he stepped off the track at the 2K mark, he walked over to Vin. I watched both of them and they seemed pleased with the race. My guess is that Vin is going to run AJ at the Pac 10's and based on the relative weak event this year, AJ is likely to score a large number of points. If things go well the rest of this year, I think you'll see AJ as primarily a steepler next year--and probably one of the best in the NCAA.
Running on Full wrote:
I agree with the other poster who was actually at the meet. The knowledgeable fans were mostly of the opinion that AJ has made great improvement since his last Steeple effort. He looked great on some of the jumps and stutter stepped on others, but is definitely improving quickly. Most noticeable was the fact that he really seemed to be into it this time, and enjoyiing himself. When he stepped off the track at the 2K mark, he walked over to Vin. I watched both of them and they seemed pleased with the race. My guess is that Vin is going to run AJ at the Pac 10's and based on the relative weak event this year, AJ is likely to score a large number of points. If things go well the rest of this year, I think you'll see AJ as primarily a steepler next year--and probably one of the best in the NCAA.
So it sounds like he can run anywhere from 8:40-8:55 this year, and that makes him likely to be best in the NCAA next year? He wouldn't break my d3 school record right now, let alone pwn toddler nationals. Peter Kosgei would crush him, and by Peter Kosgei I mean the baby Peter Kosgei who ran 8:43 as a junior. I ain't hatin' on Acosta; I don't get people who do, he's made All-American in the mile-type events he's run. But he isn't going to make a big splash in the steeple. 3k flat indoors is his best shot at a worlds team down the road, because he needs something where his 1500 speed pwns 5k guys, and his 5k strength outlasts 1500 guys. But being in sub-9:00 steeple shape right now doesn't mean that the steeple is the place where he's going to get the 1500/5k balance.
Running on Full wrote:
I agree with the other poster who was actually at the meet. The knowledgeable fans were mostly of the opinion that AJ has made great improvement since his last Steeple effort. He looked great on some of the jumps and stutter stepped on others, but is definitely improving quickly. Most noticeable was the fact that he really seemed to be into it this time, and enjoyiing himself. When he stepped off the track at the 2K mark, he walked over to Vin. I watched both of them and they seemed pleased with the race. My guess is that Vin is going to run AJ at the Pac 10's and based on the relative weak event this year, AJ is likely to score a large number of points. If things go well the rest of this year, I think you'll see AJ as primarily a steepler next year--and probably one of the best in the NCAA.
Will AJ become a good steepler? Vin thinks it's worth a look.
AJ clearly showed promise last night.
Credibility Score:
Vin >>>>> AJ Haters and Chicken Littles
I think you'll see AJ as primarily a steepler next year--and probably one of the best in the NCAA.
Now this is hyperbole that's rarely seen even in these parts.
There's a huge disconnect between your expectations and reality. You'd serve Acosta's interests much better by keeping quiet than expressing your wild fantasies.
At this point, there is nothing I've seen from Acosta's two races to suggest 'steeplechase'. If he becomes a steeplechaser he'd have to become an entirely new athlete than what he's shown thus far.
To put things in perspective, when I ran my first steeplechase, as a college freshman, I was a 4:08 miler, with a best 2 mile of 8:55. The week of the race, my coach asked me if I wanted to try the steeplechase. I said "sure, why not". He had me jump over a couple hurdles, when I passed that test, had me try the water barrier. No problem. That was it. My time was 8:52, in a dual meet against Kent State, on a track so bad that it wouldn't be a Rupp-certified for cross country.
Now compare that to a Acosta, who has been a 4:00 miler for three years now (he ran a 3:45 1500 4 years ago!). He hasn't shown one iota of aptitude for the steeplechase, and it's unfortunate that he's being pushed into the event "for points".
It seems to me that Acosta would do more for Oregon scoring-wise in the 1500, and that Mac Fleet, given his lineage, would be the ideal candidate for the steeplechase. But that's just my opinion. I don't know anything about this event.
Now compare that to a Acosta, who has been a 4:00 miler for three years now (he ran a 3:45 1500 4 years ago!). He hasn't shown one iota of aptitude for the steeplechase, and it's unfortunate that he's being pushed into the event "for points".
It seems to me that Acosta would do more for Oregon scoring-wise in the 1500, and that Mac Fleet, given his lineage, would be the ideal candidate for the steeplechase. But that's just my opinion. I don't know anything about this event.
You must have missed his 3:39 from the Oregon relays last week.
True Acosta has already proven himself in the 1500.
But Vin's little experiment should be interesting. Even you would have to agree he has earned not a little credibility in judging talent.
I think you are on to something with Mac Fleet. Dale was a hell of a steepler.
3:39 wrote:
You must have missed his 3:39 from the Oregon relays last week.
True Acosta has already proven himself in the 1500.
But Vin's little experiment should be interesting. Even you would have to agree he has earned not a little credibility in judging talent.
I think you are on to something with Mac Fleet. Dale was a hell of a steepler.
I haven't missed anything. I said that Acosta has been a 4:00 miler for three years. Obviously he has run faster since.
To use the square peg/round whole analogy, you might eventually jam that peg in the hole, but it will be ugly: splinters, wobbly and stuck.
Actually, My Cousin Vinny has had a very poor record at coaching steeplechasers when you consider all of the talent he's had over the years.
Acosta would be the easiest runner to exploit at Pac10s. The coach of any team in the scoring hunt would have an easy time of putting Acosta 'on tilt', all he would need to do is made sure his steeplechasers key on him and get in front of him at each barrier. Acosta has huge problem with sighting the barriers. If he doesn't fix it, his head would explode.
Schumacher tried the same thing with Bethke. He was a great running talent but he flat-out sucked in the steeplechase. This went on for three years, and it only stopped when Schumacher abandoned ship. Look at how Bethke's true talent surfaced in the two years since he stopped the insanity.
The moral here is: run the events you're best suited for, not the ones that someone else wants you to.
Exactly, it looked like he was even having a comfortable chat with the two other leaders right before he came out.
jkjoregon wrote:
It was quite clear if you were actually at the meet that he dropped out because it was PLANNED. He looked quite pleased with his effort and he looked good!
jkjoregon wrote:
It was quite clear if you were actually at the meet that he dropped out because it was PLANNED. He looked quite pleased with his effort and he looked good!
A 9:35 steeplechaser running 2000m, 'PLANNED', as you say, at 9:05 pace, then extrapolating it to a magic 8:50, or even 8:40, is akin to a 4:00 1500 runner running 2:32 for 1000m (3:48 pace), dropping out, then projecting his time to 3:42.
The dots don't connect.
OK Malmo, you know it all of course -- you always do. Interestingly I watched the race with a guy who ran in the Olympics as a Steepler. When I asked him what he thought o the "experiment", he gave it a lot of thought and then discussed the problem with the stutter step at certain barriers. He then went on to leave the door open as to what A.J. might be capable of with a little more work on the event. Well, Malmo, the door is open, A.J. seems willing to step through and...well let's just see what you have to say after next weekend. I don't like pure naysayer comments because they usually are worthless and erroneous to boot. See you here next weekend, with egg on your face.
Come on guys, its not like this was his first one... as pointed out by others, of all events steeplechase is the easiest to look good 2/3rds in...
Its the last 1/3rd that sorts the men from the boys.
Running on Full wrote:
OK Malmo, you know it all of course -- you always do. Interestingly I watched the race with a guy who ran in the Olympics as a Steepler. When I asked him what he thought o the "experiment", he gave it a lot of thought and then discussed the problem with the stutter step at certain barriers. He then went on to leave the door open as to what A.J. might be capable of with a little more work on the event. Well, Malmo, the door is open, A.J. seems willing to step through and...well let's just see what you have to say after next weekend. I don't like pure naysayer comments because they usually are worthless and erroneous to boot. See you here next weekend, with egg on your face.
When someone says "a little more work" They dont mean one week. With another year of steeple work is more likely what the guy meant.
Running on Full wrote:
OK Malmo, you know it all of course -- you always do. Interestingly I watched the race with a guy who ran in the Olympics as a Steepler. When I asked him what he thought o the "experiment", he gave it a lot of thought and then discussed the problem with the stutter step at certain barriers. He then went on to leave the door open as to what A.J. might be capable of with a little more work on the event. Well, Malmo, the door is open, A.J. seems willing to step through and...well let's just see what you have to say after next weekend. I don't like pure naysayer comments because they usually are worthless and erroneous to boot. See you here next weekend, with egg on your face.
I get it. I've seen enough of your ilk in Eugene. If you don't follow the flock you're a 'naysayer' or a 'hater'. Rather than read what I said, which should be an obvious observation, you turn it into a bone of contention. As I said before. "as of this point, Acosta has not shown one iota of talent for the steeplechase." This is not the saying I don't want him to improve, becasue I do. It's just an inconvenient truth. If he improves that will be great.
Yes the door is open, but it is a really tight squeeze.
malmo wrote:
Running on Full wrote:OK Malmo, you know it all of course -- you always do. Interestingly I watched the race with a guy who ran in the Olympics as a Steepler. When I asked him what he thought o the "experiment", he gave it a lot of thought and then discussed the problem with the stutter step at certain barriers. He then went on to leave the door open as to what A.J. might be capable of with a little more work on the event. Well, Malmo, the door is open, A.J. seems willing to step through and...well let's just see what you have to say after next weekend. I don't like pure naysayer comments because they usually are worthless and erroneous to boot. See you here next weekend, with egg on your face.
I get it. I've seen enough of your ilk in Eugene. If you don't follow the flock you're a 'naysayer' or a 'hater'. Rather than read what I said, which should be an obvious observation, you turn it into a bone of contention. As I said before. "as of this point, Acosta has not shown one iota of talent for the steeplechase." This is not the saying I don't want him to improve, becasue I do. It's just an inconvenient truth. If he improves that will be great.
Yes the door is open, but it is a really tight squeeze.
That's what she said.
A couple of points:
- we don't know if Vin is pushing AJ into the steeple, or if AJ wants to give it a try.
- Either way, he has not looked good so far. His form is pretty bad. He did, however, at least look fresh in his last effort.
- He was not pacing the race. He was consistently running is 3rd or 4th.
- It was clear, though, that it was a planned stop. He ran aside the leaders on his last lap. Encouraged them. Ran to _exactly_ 2k and stepped off stage right.
- Mac Fleet may well have a father who excelled in the steeple, but other than genes and looks, there does not seem to be that much in common between dad and son (as runners). Dale was a 10 minute 2 mile before his senior year, when he trained hard and improved to 8:53. Dale never had blazing speed. He was not slow, but his kick did not instill fear. Mac has been a stud since his SO year in HS. He wanted to run sub 8:45 and break the SD section record his senior year. He made several goes at it, with his best being 9:03 3200 (in a losing effort). He's a 800/1500 guy - with a chance to win a NCAA title before he's done. He does not have any of the traits one would expect of a good steeplechase runner, IMO.