Have you run Boston? Take a look at the Boston elevation profile compared to London, Amsterdam, Berlin.... no way he runs close to a record. Actually, I don't think the IAAF will recognize a world record on a point to point with as much downhill as Boston. The hills in Newton won't allow a world or American record.... unless they get a heck of a tailwind.
He's a bust. Calling it.
i think u r on to something, marathon after marathon is taxing and he has nothing else to do, not like he can run track so maybe, just maybe he's toast. Ritz approach seems so fresh, Hall approach seems so laborious, even Meb can mix it up a bit an show up at a X_C meet and rock it, 1:04 half is disastrious for an elite, in their prime, with full sponsorship, even if you are hidding your "A" game u run at least a 1:01. Damn Josh Cox influence. top 8, 2:12.
didn't josh cox run a slow half marathon before his fast marathon recently? it's probably in the training plan for those mammoth guys to train through the half and peak for the full a few months later. I bet hall runs 2:08:00
Course record at Boston is 2:07:14 just for the record.
Hall will run slower than last year. Will not break 2:10. I will guess he will run about 2:10:45 to 2:11:15. He will not be in the top three, more like about 6th place.
Hall will hear a message from God and he don´t finish the race because he´ll begin his new mission working as a testicle model.
He was hoping to run something crazy like 2:05 in NY and pretty much completely bombed for only a 2:10:36. I'll agree that he does not seem nearly as fit as then, but he's only 6 months removed from that fitness, not 2 years (London).
definatley won't be under 2:11.00. doesn't do enough track racing. look at the greatest marathoner of all time he was great on and off the track.
He ran stupid last year. He went out too hard. See the tape, and you will agree.
If he is in great shape, maybe the top 2 or 3.
Every great runner who won the Boston Marathon has one common theory on that course. "It isn't always the fittest at Boston, but the one who races the smartest."
If I were Brad Hudson I'd say this:
"Sit in the pack and wait. If the pack splits up, work your way into the lead pack and assess yourself. Make sure you are with experienced runners who know what they are doing, not some rebel who will burn up after 18 miles. you have trained for the hard push that will come late in the race, but you must be in position before you can make any kind of a move. Do not take the lead unless you are absolutley sure you can maintain that push all the way to the finish."
he's not going to win off a slow pace because he lacks the finishing speed to beat Kenyans or Ethiopians. The only way he could win this was if the pack let him go off a slow pace around 17 in, assuming wrongly that it could reel him in again. He might have a great race, but we haven't seen any evidence that he is going to turn around his slow decline since London 2008. Will this finally be the year when he returns hard to the track like Ritz did last year? If he does that, then watch out! If not, more of the same, in my view, as I've been saying here for years.
1:59:58
Fu wrote:
If I were Brad Hudson I'd say this:
"Sit in the pack and wait. If the pack splits up, work your way into the lead pack and assess yourself. Make sure you are with experienced runners who know what they are doing, not some rebel who will burn up after 18 miles. you have trained for the hard push that will come late in the race, but you must be in position before you can make any kind of a move. Do not take the lead unless you are absolutley sure you can maintain that push all the way to the finish."
His coach is Terrence Mahon. And Hall will win. He is the most fit and most intelligent athlete in the field.
racetraining wrote:
Course record at Boston is 2:07:14 just for the record.
Hall will run slower than last year. Will not break 2:10. I will guess he will run about 2:10:45 to 2:11:15. He will not be in the top three, more like about 6th place.
QFE
Hall would be better off dropping out and taking the DNF instead of a 2:11 or 2:12 (unless he's at that pace because that's what the leaders are running).
Those are nice times, but when you've went low 2:06, running a 2:12 in your prime has to be a huge blow to ego and confidence.
Sub 2:08 (not the course record, though) for a kick finish over the last mile. He will win if he's been working on surging, he will take second in the sprint if he has been doing the same old awesome, but constant pace, workouts at altitude.
2:08:12
DNF,DNS, or pussied out. G-d was busy thinking about other more important stuff.
Open letter to Ryan Hall and Terrance Mahon:
Here are few things I think will help Ryan's career between now and London:
1) You needs to race more. Typical year for him needs to include: 2 marathons, 2 15k/HM's and 3-5 10k's, he is not mentally toughened for racing with his current schedule.
2) He needs to work on his velcoity at VO2 Max in between his marathons. That mean 12-14 weeks out from his marathon he needs to be at PR shape in the 10k, then transition into a marathon specific phase. He will not be able to improve the percentage of vVO2 max he can hold for the marathon much beyond his current abilities, so he needs to improve his vVO2 Max, that is the main thing seperating him from top 5 marathoners in the world.
3) His post marathon breaks are too long with no running. They should include at least some easy paced running rather than weeks of nothing. It takes him too long to regain fitness so his progressions are lost. He is just reaching his former fitness levels by the time the next marathon comes around.
It makes no difference who I am or what I know of Ryan and his training, just out of mental curiosity examine each of my points objectively and see what merit they hold.
Best of luck to Ryan and Terrance, both class acts who I want to do very well.
Big Boy wrote:
And Hall will win. He is the most fit and most intelligent athlete in the field.
Most intelligent? No way, he´s talking about an imaginary figure all the time.
I really don't understand the vitriolic criticism and anger from people on these boards towards Hall. Is it because of his over-the-top, in your face religious proselytizing or is it because of jealousy or is it because everyone likes to get on elite runners' cases when they don't run their best? The pendulum of public opinion has swung now so that Ritz can do no wrong and it is a god among men while Hall is washed up and no good. I can't understand this attitude.