If you mean by washed up marathoners, marathoners that can no longer run a PR then you are probably right. That doesn't mean they are slow marathoners. The majority of winners at comrades were 2:08 to 2:13 marathoners.
And yes I have run it a couple times. And yes those guys are fast.
Cox can win it, but I don't give him but 5 to 10% chance...
i think he will,he runs 35-40 mile long runs at altitude only because he wants to so he's not afraid of distance.
p.s. no i dont have a man crush on josh cox and i am not jealous of him like some people.
he will sit on the leader and outkick him with an 80 second last 400m
Off the Grid wrote:
It is its own beast.
Bruce Fordyce would have been a low 2:1x marathoner if he focused on it. He chose instead to focus on Comrades in the 80s, winning it a total of 9 times setting up and down course records.
Salazar almost lost it in '94 after being well under course record pace for most of the race. He had run 10 miles in ``50 in training prior to this, so he was def in shape.
Kotov (4th in '80 OG marathon) won it several times up and down when he was %%40. He is a RSA citizen now.
There is no money in it, so the "best" don't bother. Outside of southern Africa, its EXPENSIVE to travel there and run it, so it will always be a regional race at best.
I hope to do it before I turn 50. If you live outside Africa, its something you would do because you want to, and nothing more.
That being said, you have to be a very good, very tough runner to win it. 89km on that course is a bitch. At about 70km Josh Cox will be wondering what he was thinking. This is an "up" year, so a little more merciful.
I don't think that Fordyce ever broke 30 for 10k (despite some serious attempts), so I'm rather doubtful that he could have gone sub-2:15 on an unaided marathon course. When Salazar won, he hadn't had an international-caliber performance in a decade (he was allowed to run the 1992 Olympic trials marathon, but dropped out after about 10k); I very much doubt that he was in sub-2:15 shape when he won Comrades. Kotov was twenty years past his peak marathoning shape when he was winning Comrades; it's pretty safe to say that he wasn't in sub-2:15 shape at the time.
Cox's time at CIM in December suggests to me that he was in condition to run about 2:15 on an unaided marathon course. That seems to put him among the top Comrades competitors historically based on recent marathon condition. He has also had much more success in the marathon than he has in shorter distances (a fact that is somewhat obscured by his unverified claim about a mysterious 10-mile PR in San Diego and his claim to a half-marathon PR running down a hill in Las Vegas), which -- along with his high-mileage training -- could bode well for his chances at Comrades. But I don't know. I agree that he's likely to be seriously tested over the last 20k.
I understand Michael Wardian will also be running Comrades this year.
http://www.runnersworld.com/article/0,7120,s6-239-522--13487-0,00.html
While I doubt he could challenge Cox at the marathon distance (Wardian's never broken 2:20), an 89K will be a different story. Wardian is the more experienced ultrarunner and has had a lot of success in 50-milers and 100Ks. I have no idea how he'll stack up against the rest of the field, but I'd guess he'll at least be a contender.
This year is down run (again). 2009 & 2010 is a "double down" due to the World Cup.
Not sure what Cox will do. I'm sure he'll arrived well trained, but local knowledge of the course seems to go a long way.
I've been praying for him not to win.
To whoever said there is no money in it -there is actually a lot of money in it.
250,000 Rand is $32,000USD.
That's a pretty solid payday.
after seeing his wedding photos, this is one of the few time i am rooting against an american in any international competition.
I agree. I may be jealous, but I have the same resentful feeling about Andy Baldwin (whom I know) and Cox. Yuck. Look at me.
Off the Grid wrote:
It is its own beast.
Bruce Fordyce would have been a low 2:1x marathoner if he focused on it. He chose instead to focus on Comrades in the 80s, winning it a total of 9 times setting up and down course records.
Salazar almost lost it in '94 after being well under course record pace for most of the race. He had run 10 miles in ``50 in training prior to this, so he was def in shape.
Kotov (4th in '80 OG marathon) won it several times up and down when he was %%40. He is a RSA citizen now.
There is no money in it, so the "best" don't bother. Outside of southern Africa, its EXPENSIVE to travel there and run it, so it will always be a regional race at best.
I hope to do it before I turn 50. If you live outside Africa, its something you would do because you want to, and nothing more.
That being said, you have to be a very good, very tough runner to win it. 89km on that course is a bitch. At about 70km Josh Cox will be wondering what he was thinking. This is an "up" year, so a little more merciful.
Avocados Number wrote:
I don't think that Fordyce ever broke 30 for 10k (despite some serious attempts), so I'm rather doubtful that he could have gone sub-2:15 on an unaided marathon course. When Salazar won, he hadn't had an international-caliber performance in a decade (he was allowed to run the 1992 Olympic trials marathon, but dropped out after about 10k); I very much doubt that he was in sub-2:15 shape when he won Comrades. Kotov was twenty years past his peak marathoning shape when he was winning Comrades; it's pretty safe to say that he wasn't in sub-2:15 shape at the time.
Cox's time at CIM in December suggests to me that he was in condition to run about 2:15 on an unaided marathon course. That seems to put him among the top Comrades competitors historically based on recent marathon condition. He has also had much more success in the marathon than he has in shorter distances (a fact that is somewhat obscured by his unverified claim about a mysterious 10-mile PR in San Diego and his claim to a half-marathon PR running down a hill in Las Vegas), which -- along with his high-mileage training -- could bode well for his chances at Comrades. But I don't know. I agree that he's likely to be seriously tested over the last 20k.
this is a "down" year, because of the World Cup. (usually even years are up - think, "Even it Up")
I think Fordyce was "better" than 30 for 10k. He ran in RSA when there was nowhere to compete but....RSA. Its not like he could fly to Europe to run a 10k - he was banned. Probably "banned" at home too at one point.
One year when Kotov won Comrades, he also ran the Taroko Marathon here in Taiwan, which is beautiful, but not flat. +500m ascent and then down. Ouch. Times are usually 7-8 minutes slower than flat. Kotov won in 2:24, which would be ~2:17 on the flat.
A lot of better runners have blown up over the last 30k in Comrades. To win it, you have to 1)be in 2:1x shape and 2) be prepared.
My money (of which there is very little) is on Wardian. He can handle the distance and he loves to run hard. If he doesn't win, he'll at least give it a good effort and have fun doing it. I admire that spirit.
Go, Michael Wardian!
please, we all know Dean Kanarzes is going to win. he's the best ultra runner EVER!
See this is what I hate... "praisen' the gift." If it's a gift it get's handed to you. Not, working your ass off running/training 150+ miles a week for years, feelin' like shit and sleeping all the time.
I'm another lister who has run Comrades. It is an awesome event.
If I was a betting person, which I am not, my money would not be on Cox. The situation is similar to betting on Solinsky in a 10K with Africans. Unless Cox has a career day there is going to be some African who is going to take him down as Comrades is the entire focus of the South African running scene.
I am sure Josh Cox would love to and even believes he can have a chance win the comrades for it for many reasons... but it is ,to be sure, an unreasonable goal... His main claim to fame will be the buildup and announcements leading to the race with his sponsors,etc. . The reality of the race will sit in when he is out on the course. That said ..wish him luck!
To Salazar's credit ...he just went over, said nothing and was humbled by the course and scraped away with a victory,. No bullshit leadup before the race ..and just laid it all on the line.I think many would appreciate Mr. Cox to be the same way in his behavior,..indeed that it seems he even yearns for this type of character himself.less talk /more walk
In the year that Salazar hung on to win it I think it was a rather slow time (5:37),even taking into consideration the changing distances from year to year. But he was an exceptinal 2:13 runner , not the norm. (Imop).
Now the race has changed considerably. Not only is of an even more famous nature but... it is really taking a 2:09 runner to win it with exceptional ability over the last 30km of the race... that is one who has purely trained for the event itself. But we can all dream! Just some get paid for it!
There is no doubt Fordyce could break 30 minutes for 10km but his preparation was all for comrades so there was not much point running sub 30 minute 10kms.
Willie Mtolo (New york marathon winner) , Thompson Magawana (defintely a 2:08 marathon runner) (he ran a 2:12 marathon split in a 56km race) have both tried to win but failed at comrades.
That race is a different animal with different preperation.
Cox might have a shot if it was 50km, but even then I highly doubt it.
Wardian will be in the top ten, but won't win either. He'd be top five if he didn't race so much.