Rudisha vs. Kaki - Who Breaks 800 WR First?

The record will not be broken this year. A drop to 1:41.10 is too great. Fastest time last year I think was 1:42.02? Unless your last name is BOLT, no way. 1:41.50 should be the first target

If they allow Rudisha to run out of a block like the sprinter he is he would do it

1.41.11 will last a long time. Rudisha has the capability but his training isn´t at the level that Kipketer´s training under Slawomir Nowak was. I don´t mean only mileage.

yet it is totally reasonable to think that Kipketer was on drugs. His success, like that of Komen, Geb (at his best), El G, and so many others, coincided with the undetectable EPO era when all the men's distance records were destroyed and even also rans were smashing the old records.

He had some drafting - from 100 break to 250m and then again from c470 to about 550m. He also had Choge and Yego right behind him pushing him into the home straight. That's an advantage over someone who is 3 or more seconds ahead of the field by 600m.

His splits were fine. He went through 400m in 50.2, so his laps were 50.2/51.8. About as good as you get for running 1:42. Compare with Kip's 49.3/51.8 (1:41.11) and Coe's 50.6/51.7 & 49.7/52.0.

You're always quoting how athlete X could have run that much faster over 1500m based on their 800m time and vice versa. Of course 1500m ability (when taken with 400m speed) has a direct bearing on an athlete's ability over 800m. Otherwise, why keep advertising your bloody formula which does exactly that! I agree that 1000m time is more useful. but neither Cruz (2:14 in 84 amongst his 800m sequences) or Kip, got anywhere near Coe's time at the distance.

I read on the Sanchez thread what you think Kip's and Coe's runs were worth with better pacing. As usual, you give your countrymen every benefit possible, while neglecting to afford the same to other nationals.

Yes, Kipketer could have gone sub 1:41 that night in Zurich with a slower first lap. But you don't mention the 0.2 Coe wasted in his 81 run when he ran wide on the curve after the bell to get past pacemaker. That brings his time down to 1:41.5 off laps of 49.6 (not 49.5) and 51.9. Give him better splits and he runs 1:41.1- 1:41.2.

Coe ran in early June 1981 on a shitty track. It was his first and only attempt at a fast time over 800 that season. Kip ran his after several attempts at the record in late August 97 on a faster "mondo" track. He also had the benefit of other runners pushing him just behind up to 600m.

Now let me see,.....who is more likely to reach his fastest time in these conditions?

By August 81 Coe would have been in better shape and have done a lot more speed work. Given 49.6 in Zurich and someone pacing/drafting him to 550m as Kip had in his 1:41.1 run and he goes under 1:41.

jjjjjjj wrote:

yet it is totally reasonable to think that Kipketer was on drugs. His success, like that of Komen, Geb (at his best), El G, and so many others, coincided with the undetectable EPO era when all the men's distance records were destroyed and even also rans were smashing the old records.

Tons of also rans these days are breaking those old record times too. So it is unreasonable, unless you think that EVERYONE has been on drugs for the ENTIRE existence of the sport. When exactly is the faster possible clean time?

over reacting wrote:

jjjjjjj wrote:

yet it is totally reasonable to think that Kipketer was on drugs. His success, like that of Komen, Geb (at his best), El G, and so many others, coincided with the undetectable EPO era when all the men's distance records were destroyed and even also rans were smashing the old records.

Tons of also rans these days are breaking those old record times too. So it is unreasonable, unless you think that EVERYONE has been on drugs for the ENTIRE existence of the sport. When exactly is the faster possible clean time?

Well, Ramzi wasn't caught until 2008, but he came from nowhere to win the World double in 2005, so that shows that even with an EPO test in place, it's certainly not very reliable.

As for tons of "also rans" breaking the old records, well no one since 2001 (the first full year EPO testing was in place) has run faster than the old (pre Kip) WR at 800m and only 3 people have run faster than the Aouita 1500m WR (3:29.46) in the last 5 seasons. The fastest being 3:29.05:- not exactly on the same planet as what was being run in the 90's.

At 3000m only 5 men have bettered Aouita's 7:29.45 pre 90's record in the last 5 seasons. The fastest being Bekele's 7:25.79 - 5 seconds or about 35m behind Komen's run. After Bekele the next fastest is Kipchoge at 7:28.37-barely a second faster than Aouita.

To me this shows that while some athletes still take EPO (which of course has more benefit to times the further the distance), there is a lot more caution amongst athletes now, knowing that the chances of being caught (especially with the high profile case of Ramzi) have increased.

The "silly" times in the late 90's by many athletes not worthy of tying the spikes of some of their slower predecessors, was largely due to them being in that enviable position of knowing they could take this wonder drug and have absolutely no chance of them being caught for it; as a test (even a pretty unreliable one that followed in the early '00's) didn't exist.

Sorry! That fastest 1500m time should have read 3:29.02

LaShawn Merritt

Daniel Komen wrote:

Rudisha is on FIRE!!! He will break the record this year by September. He has learned from two years of making mistakes which cost him the titles that were for him to lose. On world championships, Rudisha is finally the king on the throne. Let him who has guts face him...

I have to echo your sentiments.

Whereas Rudisha might not break it this year, he'll probaby run 1:41 this year. 1:43 in March is up in the stratospere with no one threatening or even pushing him.

said it before wrote:

ventolin, I hate the way you write.

I think neither will break the WR. Kipketer was either superhuman or on drugs.

+1

None of the middle distance records are vulnerable right now.

The 800 record is incredibly vulnerable to Rudisha this year. As simple as that.

If anybody who is on the world scene right now ever breaks the WR for 800m, I think it will be either Rudisha or Asbel Kiprop. Kiprop hasn't exactly been on fire as of late, but I have no doubt that he will do lots more great stuff over the next hopefully decade plus. I fully expect to see Kaki beat both of them head to head more often than not, but somehow, for reasons I can't quite explain, I like Rudisha and Kiprop's chances better for the WR.

Maybe they will both break it at the same time.

nonsense

you clearly no nothing about drafting

there is NO drafting whilst running in separate lanes at start of an 800

nonsense

all that's happening is that rudy overtook a rapidly slowing wabbit - there is barely 0.1s where rudy is 1 - 2m behind him, which is requirement for effective drafting

drivel

unless rudy has eyes in the back of his head, how woud he know if they are an actual 5 - 8m behind him or 10m+++

you seem to have this delusion that someone meters behind is some sort of advantage

idiot

it isn't

it just means those guys are also good runners - or didn't the observation that 2nd & 3rd were the current & former 800 champ & 3rd placer was also a 1'42.8 guy ?

please tell us if what time rudy wouda run instead of 1'42.01 if the 2nd/3rd place guys had been 15m behind him ???

no

they weren't - do some arithmetic

his splits were 1.6s difference compared to kips 2.5 & coe's 2.3s

2s+ is expected differential

if he'd had a wabbit 1 - 2m ahead of him between 200 - 400m he wouda gained ~0.5s for 49.7/51.8 for 2.1s differential & end clocking of 1'41.5

only if they have significant 1500 ability to start with - 3'35 with 1'41 isn't significant 1500 ability to analyse anything

read above

read original post

they only need over-endurance ability over 800m - it doesn't even need to be 1k - 900m is more than adequate

no

i even gave kip wrong splits at 48.5/52.7 when the vid shows wabbit thru in 48.1 & kip was actually 48.3/52.9 ->

~ 1'39.95

your delusion that he had to be better in the latter part of season than june

he wasn't

he looked much better in that 800 than that 3'47.3wr & looked about same ability in his stockholm run

1'41.7 was far better than anyone expected for him ( at the time, i remember 1'42-flat being bandied about as his "ultimate" - so 1'41.7 was a shock & much quicker than expected - i don't remember any of the papers/mags expecting an improvement on that latter in the year )

shitty track ?

only things shitty about it were that it had questionable timing & may have been short ( accusation bandied around a lot to another italian track )

as for kip, he was in low-1'41 shape in the indoor wr - & that wouda been faster if he'd hadn't the fatigue of another solo wr just 2/7 before - no way to prepare to give your ideal best in a record attempt

i doubt he was in any different shape indoors to out that year

you are dreaming

he was in best shape of his life that day - no one ( except you as a blinkered 9y ole ) was expecting an improvement latter in the season & his mile showed he wasn't better

delusional

he may have done more speed work but that means less endurance work & that means he may have got slower rather than faster

kip didn't need anyone beyond 400m when he ran that 1'41.2 in zurich - if kip couda persuaded his 1'42 team-mates ndururi or onyancha to have paced him to 550 in zurich he couda run 1'40-flat

coe got a wbbit to 400m - that's all that you can expect

You said he had NO drafting. He did. They break after first 100m and are no longer in lanes.

If "effective drafting" is 1-2m behind a rabbit, then few people ever get it. A stride is approx 2m, so you'd have to be practically touching the heels of the rabbit to ensure drafting. Rudisha was within 4m of the rabbit from 450-550m, ensuring "some" drafting.

The rabbit went through 400m in 49.4, so had Rudisha been 2m behind and benefitted from drafting then he'd have gone through in about 49.7 - just the right sort of time to threaten Kip's WR. Yet he CHOSE to stay back 6m (not 10m as you exaggerated, which would mean Rudisha went through in 50.6).

What? You clearly haven't run much yourself. Of course you know if someone is that close behind you, and of course it gives you that extra spur to keep on driving hard, knowing that they will take advantage of any weakness in the closing stages. Once again you exaggerate for effect. If you take a look at the race on Youtube, then you'll see that Choge & Yego weren't "5-8m" behind as you suggest. At 600m Choge was 2-2.5m behind, with Yego another 1.5m behind him. They were both only 3m behind Rudisha as he entered the straight. Unlike you I realise that not every scenario can be put into a formula and measured, but it's just common sense to recognise that having athletes close behind is going to make you run quicker than if you have no one just behind you.

Well if he'd stayed closer to the rabbit in the first place he would have gone through in 49.7. If he'd passed the rabbit just after the bell, running wide, then his 2nd lap would have been 0.2 slower, and without the drafting he had from 450-550, he'd have been another 0.2sec slower there. Giving laps of 49.7 (with drafting) and 52.2, for a final time of 1:41.9 :0)

Rubbish. If 2 athletes have identical pbs for 400m but athlete A runs 1500 in 3:32 whereas athlete B runs 3:36, then athlete A is going to have a better potential at 800m all other things being equal. If athlete A runs 2:12 for 1k and B runs 2:14, then same applies. You don't need to use formulas or calculations, it's common sense.

Here your ignorance and lack of background knowledge is evident.

Firstly, no one plans to reach a peak on June 10th, unless the Olympic Games are particularly early. If you read the relevant books then you'd know that Peter Coe didn't go with him (he always went for scheduled record attempts)and the aim was to see what sort of shape he was in.

Secondly, Coe's major goal for the season was the Brussels Mile (where it had been planned all summer that he would meet Ovett; who pulled out about 2 weeks before)and the World Cup 800m. These were at the very end of August/early Sept.

3) It takes a few attempts at running in fast races before an athlete reaches peak form. That's why there was a noticeable improvement between Coe's 2 Mile records. He'd run a solo 1:44.0 the week before his record, then didn't run any other fast 800s for the rest of the season. Why should he,..he was 1.7 faster than anyone else in history and no one else broke 1:44 that season.

4) So you claim he reached his peak in early June and then deteriorated throughout the rest of the season. That's laughable. His Stockholm 1500m in July was worth sub 3:28 when eneven pacemaking and lack of any drafting (using calculations from the formulas you are always quoting)are taken into consideration. His 3:47.3 Mile was not what he was capable of given decent pacing.

5) Writers and athletes alike were talking about Coe running 1:40 something ever since he broke the record looking very easy from the front in '79. Walker is on record as saying such.

Lol! Whatever age I was old man, I can assure you I was more mature than you clearly are now, what with your schoolboy use of expletives to try and convince people of your rightness in every thing. People with a brain would realise he could have run faster at 800m, but he didn't bother for reasons mentioned above. As for his Mile being not as good, you've already stated that 1500m times have little bearing on 800m ability. His two Mile records tell us he was head and shoulders above the rest of the World's milers that year and doesn't tell us a great deal about what he could have run for 800m in August.

Duhh! Yeah that makes sense. He was going to aim for a Mile Wr in Zurich in late August so he thought he'd do a lot less endurance work in July an August in preparation!

Idiot.

Do you think Peter Coe wouldn't have worked out that he'd need more speed endurance for the Mile?

Well Kip was given a better first 400m split (49.3) in Cologne for his 1:41.1 and drafting up to about 570m, but still didn't manage to break 1:41, let alone 1:40 flat. Perhaps that 48.3 was nearer to his optimum first lap time than we realise.

If Coe hadn't run wide on the curve and had someone taken him to 570m (providing him with the same drafting Kip got in Cologne) then his time would have been 0.6 faster by your calculations. That would have given him 1:41.1 too.

Moron. You´re nothing but a retarded whiteboy.

drivel

watch the vid

rudy stayed in his lane ( along with the field to 200m )

he got NO drafting - by the time rudy got within 1 -2m, the wabbit had moved into lane 2

drivel

he was 10m behind at the bell & only rapidly fading rabbit allowed him to catch-up & the wabbit moved into lane 2 as rudy approached, so he got NOT even 0.1s of drafting 1 - 2m behind

moron

wabbit's job is to smoothly take the elite thru to the bell 1 - 2m behind

this one just shot straightforward at 200m to open up a 10m lead by 275m, showing no sense to throttle back

elite's job is NOT to chase after wabbit on 1st lap - wabbit is paid to adjust to take them thru properly - he didn't

i'm sure your legendary 2'30 performances for 800 make you an authority

moron

it can just as easily tense you up & you run poorly as a result - cruz v cram is an epic example

drivel

wabbit is paid to accomodate elite, not elite wasting energy to catch-up

wabbit went wide when passed, so losing 0.2s to pass him is a nonsense

there was NO effective drafting 450 - 550m - learn to read moron - wabbit stepped outwards soon as rudy got within 2m

moron

in the cases of kip/cruz, even 1k was beyond their best distance

900m time-trial ability wouda been more instructive for them compared to coe

i am not interested in books written 10 - 15y after the events

my knowledge is from watching the races at the time & avidly reading the broadsheets/athletics mags at the time - impartial contemporary sources, not PROPAGANDA to embellish the coe myth years later

& his mile was nowhere the quality of his 800 run

kip didn't need to in his indoor '97 season

solo 1'44 later on - worth mid-1'43 with wabbit 200 - 400m

indicative of past his peak for 800m already for the season

neither, if ideally run were calibre of his 800

his solo 1'44 IS not anywhere close to that of his 1'41.7

drivel

i read all the broadsheets/mags at the time & NO one mentioned 1'40

if anything, they never expected him to ever break his 1'42.3wr as that already faster than any of the pundits had ever expected of him

find walker's quote

no

experienced track observers at the time never expected anything better over 800 for rest of the year, no matter how much he ran it ( unless he found another "legendary" italian track )

same experience which told us experienced observers that hicham was not going to run faster than 3'26.00 in his breakthru season

his 1'44.0 did

moron

can you not comprehend

"he may have done more speed work but that means less endurance work & that means he may have got slower rather than faster"

you are obviously too stoopid to realise that kip was in the peak outdoor shape of his life for that day in zurich, close to a full 1s better than his cologne run

if kip is to be assessed, it is on zurich NOT cologne

as for 48.3 being optimum time for him - that is onsense

empirically ( & this relationship will likely hold when wr is 1'35 )

~2s split differential is accepted as optimal by consensus

50.0/52.0 ->1'42.0

49.5/51.5 ->1'41.0

49.0/51.0 ->1'40.0

48.5/50.5 ->1'39.0

48.3/50.3 ->1'38.6

48.3s is split for intended 1'38.6

yes, you are

ventolin^2 wrote:

Moron. You´re nothing but a retarded whiteboy.

You're repeating yourself now old man.

Sorry, I should say bitter, biased, racist old man.

LOL.