Can Bernard Lagat win an Olympic medal in 2012. He is getting pretty old.

If he is in medal contending shape in 2012 he will have no problem making the US team without peaking early.

Although the US is breaking through, you are talking about an event where the US normally struggles to get three 'A' qualifiers and I do not expect Rupp or Ritz to be running the 5,000.

Lagat did just fine in 2007 under the current system.

You do have to think age and just a long career of running will catch up to him by then, though.

Better to be a has been than a never been

Impossible to predict, its only 2 years & he's still winning

make no mistake, Bernard Lagat is one of the most exceptional athletes there has ever been. He can win in 2012. Will he? I dont know. It will be at a distance of at least 5,000 meters, but he just ran 1311 indoors. Is it really that unreasonable to think that in 2 short years from now he couldnt run close enough to 13 flat (which is the kind of fitness it takes, not the actual time in every race) to be in contention for a medal?

It's actually 2 long years once you get to that age. Lagat can't get injured AT ALL if he wants a chance 2 years from now.

German Fernandez will most likely lead the team in either the 5000, or 1500, I'm sure he'll decide which event when the time comes.

Pretty much table scraps for everybody else, unless they are running the 10K.

You can BANK on it!

Hershel Walker is clean at 46.

ventolin^2 wrote:

nope

he mighta gone 12'45 - 12'47

1500 speed means little over 5k - look at 3'32 kennster crushed by komen & choge v them

and look at 3:26 guys El Guerrouj and Lagat destroying Bekele at 5000m, not to mention the 5000m hardware of milers like Aouita, the guy from Burundi(?) in the 1990s and Coghlan. Aouita, of course, had world records at 1500 and 5000m.

probably not. but maybe if the drugs keep getting better.

jjjjjjjjjjj wrote:

ventolin^2 wrote:

nope

he mighta gone 12'45 - 12'47

1500 speed means little over 5k - look at 3'32 kennster crushed by komen & choge v them

and look at 3:26 guys El Guerrouj and Lagat destroying Bekele at 5000m, not to mention the 5000m hardware of milers like Aouita, the guy from Burundi(?) in the 1990s and Coghlan. Aouita, of course, had world records at 1500 and 5000m.

It was Vénuste Niyongabo (3:29.18 & 13:03.29) from Burundi.

In 2012, it could take a 13:00 to win. If so, Lagat will need to run the equivalent of 12:30!! That's the age-graded performance. Even a 13:10 would be 12:40 ag. I don't think Lagat will pull this off. If so, he will be unrivaled in olympic 5000m racing.

jjjjjjjjjjj wrote:

ventolin^2 wrote:

nope

he mighta gone 12'45 - 12'47

1500 speed means little over 5k - look at 3'32 kennster crushed by komen & choge v them

and look at 3:26 guys El Guerrouj and Lagat destroying Bekele at 5000m, not to mention the 5000m hardware of milers like Aouita, the guy from Burundi(?) in the 1990s and Coghlan. Aouita, of course, had world records at 1500 and 5000m.

How many times has Lagat beaten Bekele, and how many times has Bekele beaten Lagat?

ventolin^2 wrote:

dfasfd wrote: He may run 12:50 this year, but back when he ran 3:26, he was probably capable of 12:30s.

nope

he mighta gone 12'45 - 12'47

1500 speed means little over 5k - look at 3'32 kennster crushed by komen & choge v them

Everybody´s favourite Kenyan is back from his native country!

jjjjjjjjjjj wrote:

and look at 3:26 guys El Guerrouj and Lagat destroying Bekele at 5000m

not in 12'40 races...

He already has more Oly and WC medals than the whole Nike ODP and Eugene OTC put together including the coaches. What more do you want from the homey ?

If he stays healthy and injury free. He's most likely are best medal shot in Men's distance unless Ritz hits the track. This isn't too say guys like Tegankamp, Rupp, Fernandez, Hall, and others aren't any good. Just that a Lagat in top form is better. 2 years from now that could change. But if I had to put money on someone it'd be Lagat, or Ritz on the track.

I thought Lagat mentioned retiring as early as this year, but then he keeps running great races. I think he's just feeling it out -- if he stays healthy then sure, why not. At 37 or 38, his chance for gold will be slim, but never count him out. Either way, he's had a brilliant career.

I'm excited for 2012 in that I think by then we should be able to field full teams with sub-13 and sub-27 runners. And given how many people are running good miles this month, hopefully we can fill all three 1500 spots with sub-3:32 runners.

I feel Lagat is one of those guys that wants to retire when he's one of the best. He doesn't want to be one of those guys that struggles in his late 30's to keep up with the pack. I see him retiring after this year.