His half was in a tactical race and is worth faster than sixty. He has all the credentials at half and shorter now to run 2:06, but he has to prove that the marathon is his event. If he divide his new five k by his old one, and multiply by his marathon pr, you get mid 2:06. He averaged 7:45.6 3k in his 5k, so why wouldn't he be able to go sub 7:35 for just a 3k?
3k- No.
5k- Yes, since he already holds it I'll give it to him.
10k- Yes but he's gonna have some competition from Rupp.
Marathon- No. I would bet he ends up running NYC trying to redeem himself for his last time there and thus has no chance of going much faster than his PR. Even if he ran Chicago I doubt he comes with 2 minutes of the record on a perfect day. In the future I'm sure he has a shot but only if he can figure out the cramping problems he's had in the past.
Does anyone know how his training is going? Everyone is basing these expectations off that one en fuego patch he had last year but alot can change when you shut it down and then try to build back again.
history wrote:
Webb will take the 3k and 5k records this year.
I lol'd.
Ritz is definitely capable of breaking the 10k and marathon records, but I just don't see the 3k record happening, at least all in the same year.
As others have said, I don't think he can get the 3k or Marathon, but is a shoe-in for the 10k. That said, in the comments on his blog he states that he's NOT shooting for a sub-27 10k.
http://dathanritzenhein.competitor.com/2010/01/09/future-triathlete/
So will he be aiming for a fast 10k at all? Maybe he won't hold any by this summer.
3k - unlikely
5k - Lagat (or perhaps Teg) could take it down.
10k - yes!
marathon - this year: no way. I do think though, Ritz has a shot at Hall's half marathon AR if he finds the right race.
Go Ritz!
no
Sounds like his intention is to focus on 3k - 10k for a bit before really focusing wholeheartedly on the marathon.
"I still plan to make the change over to the marathon but I want to have one last good shot at running some big PR’s at 3000-10000m. I think once I make that change over the next year or two, I will still run those shorter races but I will not be going for sub 12:56 or 27:00."
haha, YO wrote:
Oh come on, a realist would see that for many years if things kept going the way they were going no way in hell for a 12:56. And even when he ran so well in Berlin everyone started saying AR, maybe sub 27. But even that wasn't on the level of the 12:56.
You are incorrect. I called for him to run sub 13:00 way back when he was a freshman at Colorado. He ran 13:27 as a freshman at Colorado...faster than Goucher ever ran there. He constantly threw down big time performances when not fully fit (coming back from illness and injury), and I harped on this for years and years. Never in the history of Letsrun has someone here been so vocal about an eventuality, and lo and behold, it came true just as I said it would. That you aren't the visionary I have proven to be with regard to Ritz isn't my concern. I called it years ago and gave the reasons why. His speed and his progress up to age 25 was easily comparable to Bob Kennedy. YOU couldn't see it coming. I COULD.
If only Flagpole would stick to track and avoid talking football.
But let's not pretend that predicting that a kid that runs 13:27 as a freshman will run under 13 makes you a sage. If I predict German will run 12:55 today am I really going out on a limb? The only real accomplishment here isn't in clairvoyance, it's in stubbornness. Most folks gave up on Ritz, but some people can't admit they might be wrong. This time it worked out.
Of course, as usual, this post and probably this thread will get pulled because it points out that Flagpole doesn't know jack about football.
I think he has the capability of running all of those times over the course of his entire career, and as others have said, I think he could probably take a few seconds off of the 10K AR this year. I have difficulty imagining him running the 3K and marathon ARs in the same year, though.
Mtn Dew wrote:
If only Flagpole would stick to track and avoid talking football.
But let's not pretend that predicting that a kid that runs 13:27 as a freshman will run under 13 makes you a sage. If I predict German will run 12:55 today am I really going out on a limb? The only real accomplishment here isn't in clairvoyance, it's in stubbornness. Most folks gave up on Ritz, but some people can't admit they might be wrong. This time it worked out.
Of course, as usual, this post and probably this thread will get pulled because it points out that Flagpole doesn't know jack about football.
1) I've long said I'm a football fan and not an expert.
2) Dude, with regard to Ritz there are only two possibilities...I was either going to be right or wrong. You can go back and look at the threads any time I mentioned that Ritz would break Kennedy's AR in the 5,000 and see how often I was ripped, told I know nothing about distance running, that Ritz didn't have the speed to do it, that I was disrespecting Kennedy, that only three white men had ever done it (and so that meant he couldn't...RIGHT) and on and on. I stuck to my guns (because I was right to) and was proven correct. I've never been so adamant about anything I've said here, and I gave loads of reasons why he would do it. Now that he has, those of you who said I was wrong just must eat crow (as I did when my favored Buckeyes lost to Florida in the BCS title game), but on this I was right. That most folks gave up on Ritz before he was even 26 was just their own fault. I knew better. Now, you say after the fact that I wasn't going out on a limb?! BS brother. Everyone and their brother here told me I was full of it and that Ritz couldn't do it. I KNEW he would and gave the reasons why. And it was neither stubbornness nor clairvoyance; it was looking at his history and making a projection based on what he had done to date based on his level of fitness. It was all an EDUCATED prediction, and again, I was correct. I will be proven correct yet again when he runs sub 27:00 for the 10,000.
Just admit I was right and you'll probably feel much better.
Only realistic addition to his 5,000 meters AR is in the 10,000 meters. Is that a goal of his come this fall? Probably not. He hasn't run anywhere close to the AR for the 3,000 meters and is yet to break 2:10 for the Marathon...
I agree that Flagpole just got lucky.
With that said, I never disagreed with you, Flagpole, I thought Ritz could break the 5k AR too. It's not like you were the only person in the entire world that believed this. I just didn't care enough to whine and draw attention to myself with these predictions.
I'm happy that you were finally right, but....who cares? His accomplishment isn't about you.
Sure, Ritz was talented. Even his 13:27 would not lead me to think he could run sub 13:00 because he was always a guy who seemed more suited to longer stuff. His collegiate 1500 PR was 3:44 or something? How can you know that along with his years and years of stagnant performances and still realistically think he could run sub 13? You are just stubborn, Mtn Dew hit it right on the head. Most reasonable people can change and adapt to what the current situation is.
A fit and healthy Ritz will break the 10k AR at any time and he will probably lower his 5k AR as well, although I think Teg, Lagat or Webb will ultimately own that record. I would not say the marathon or the 3k record is impossible, but unlikely any time soon. Ritz is more likely to achieve one or the other, but not both; if Ritz focuses on the 3k record, it will be at the expense of the marathon and when he turn his attention back to the marathon, it will be at the expense of the 3k.
When Bob Kennedy speaks to kids, they are always surprised to know that he is also the American 3k record holder with only modest mile credentials. In H.S. the best miler is usually the best 2-milers and kids assume Steve Scott, Sydney Maree or Alan Webb would own the 3k record, but Kennedy was more suited to the 3k than any of our great middle or long distance runners because except for perhaps Matt Tegenkamp, Kennedy is the only U.S. athlete who focused exclusively on the 5k and 5k training is closer to a 3k than that of a miler or 10k/marathon athlete. With that said and when you think about Ritz’s 8:11 2-mile from a couple of years ago and his major 5k improvement, you have to say he at least has a shot at the 3k AR. I will add, Bobby Kennedy’s 3k record is as strong as his 5k record, although it did not seen so at the time because in the 90s athletes were running faster 3ks than they do today; nowadays a 7:30 3k will when more world-class races than 12:58 5k.
I have always said that Ritz is a better long distance runner than Hall even after Hall ran his 2:06, it takes some athletes a couple years of sustained marathon training and couple of tries to figures it out. Ritz’s track and road credentials are similar to Moroccan Gharib Jaouad and when Ritz starts to focus exclusively on the marathon, the AR is definitely in the cards and probably more likely than the 3k. Btw, Ritz‘s World Half Marathon Championships performance puts him at 2:06x.
In summary
3k AR (possible, but not likely)
5k AR (likely)
10k AR (definitely)
Marathon AR (possible, maybe)
TrackCoach,
possibly wrote:
27:10 in the spring; 7:29 in the summer; 2:05 in the fall ??
No way. His best shot is the 10k this year. He may get his marathon time down in another year or two. He will never do 7:29.
Laughable wrote:
Only realistic addition to his 5,000 meters AR is in the 10,000 meters. Is that a goal of his come this fall? Probably not. He hasn't run anywhere close to the AR for the 3,000 meters and is yet to break 2:10 for the Marathon...
3k - what have others run 3k at when they were close to taht level for 5k?
Moorcroft - 7:32.79 / 13:00.41 - same year
Aouita -
7:33.3 / 13:04.78 - 84
7:32.94 / 13:00.40 - 85
7:32.23 / 13:00.86 - 86
DNC / 12:58.39WR - 87
...
7:29.45 WR / DNC - 89
Bob Kennedy
12:58.21 / 7:31.69 - 96
7:31.77 / 13:06.62 - 97
7:30.84 / 13:03.87 - 98
Maree
7:33 AR 84 / 13:01 AR 85
I would say that it is possible , but he would need to be in a Euro race where he went for it, like his 12:56.
5k -
Who knows what will happen? I hope he will continue to progress and lower his level ... but it took like 8 yrs from a near HS record 13:44 to get to an AR 12:56 ... it might not be a straight line like we hope for. I hope he can run sub-12:56 and sub-12:50 ... but look at what happened to Goucher.
10k -
If he can run 27:22 in a Champ. race, he can run 27:10. If he isn't focusing on sub-27 that is too bad, that would be a mark for the ages. A real achievement, like when Pre held ALL the records, when Shorter was first American to break 28 and held the Mara. AR too, like Virgin breaking 27:30, like Salazar having the 5k/10k/Mara all at once. Even if someone breaks his possible AR in the future (which they will eventually) he would be the first American to break 27.
Marathon -
As everybody else said, he MAY be able to do it, but not at NYC. London or Chicago with good weather, otherwise no. Unless he stays healthy for 5 years AND focuses on a fast marathon.
Again, he could stay on fire for 5-7 more years, or he could keep getting injured and/or stale and wiped out. I hope for the former.
afsfsdf wrote:
I think he can get the 400 world record if he tries really hard.
I am sure he could also get the 100m and 200m world record, if he met Usain Bolt in the perfect 63.4 degree fahrenheit, sunny, no cloudy day.
Laughable wrote:
Only realistic addition to his 5,000 meters AR is in the 10,000 meters. Is that a goal of his come this fall? Probably not. He hasn't run anywhere close to the AR for the 3,000 meters and is yet to break 2:10 for the Marathon...
I said years ago that he'd break the 10,000 AR eventually...and he will. The only way he won't is if someone (Tegenkamp, Webb, Rupp, who knows) beats him to it. That AR is by far the softest of the current ones, and it is well within Ritz's ability.
You are not giving Ritz the credit he is due. His 2-mile of 8:11 is a very nice time, especially considering how infrequently that race is run, and so he finally busted out a good run when he was fit and focused on it. Do we look at Ryan Hall and say his 5,000 time isn't as good as his half marathon time and say the latter must have been a fluke? You also say Ritz has yet to break 2:10. Well, two things there, his time is 2:10 flat, and secondly, so what? Is his career over? He just made his breakthrough (which I predicted); give the dude a chance to race now with newfound fitness and confidence. He WILL run sub 2:10...WAY under sub 2:10. 2:06...2:05 maybe even. Many doubted he had the ability to run world class times (though I knew). Well, now he has. Most of you need an equivalent time in one race to predict a decent time in another race (soothsayers that you are). Well, his 5,000 time predicts a 2:06. I said he'd do that or better though BEFORE he ran the 12:56.
Flagpole wrote:
... Well, his 5,000 time predicts a 2:06. I said he'd do that or better though BEFORE he ran the 12:56.
And you were wrong.
Again.