Which DISTANCE world record will be the first to fall?

It is a useful tool to get an idea as to what someone has the potential to run, but after playing around with the figures, there are anomalies. It doesn't take into consideration that one of the input times may not be the absolute best an athlete was capable of that season.

For example, take Lagat in 2001. Now if you put his 1500m (3:26.34) pb and 5000m best for that year (13:30.54) you get an 800m potential of 1:39.8 and 1000m of 2:09.3!

If you put his Mile best (3:47.28) and his 5000 best you get an 800m potential of 1:42.7 (compared to his career best of 1:46.0) and a 1500m of 3:29.9.

1:46 800m & 13:30 5k, you get 1500m of 3:33.98!

None of these "paths" seem the right one. Obviously he ran out of his skin in the 1500m but didn't run to full potential at other distances. He is certainly not capable of running under 1:44.0 for 800m

Likewise lets use the Coe example you used. Although I suspect he could have run faster at 800m than the 1:41.5 had he been given pace for longer, lets take 1:41.5. The 3:47.3 Mile was not his full potential. He said he could have run 3:46.6 had he "gone all out" at the bell, (and certainly anyone speeding up in the last 100 was not at full speed for the entire last lap) and I would suspect it would have been nearer 3:46.0 had the first 3 laps been more economical (the first 1/4 was 55.3- 3:41.2 pace).

That gives 1000m of 2:11.2 and 1500m of 3:28.6. Which seems about right. However, put in a 400m best of 46.0 and a Mile of 3:46.0, you get an 800m of 1:42.13, which is at least 0.6 slower than what he was capable of.

- 3:47.3 into the equation the 800m slows even more to 1:42.45.

Now, who are we to decide whether that extra 0.6 came from superior speed or superior endurance? Coe ran a few relay legs prior to his June WR, the fastest of which was 45.7 (c. 46.2-46.4 as a standard time). I can't imagine him being any quicker than 46.00 at that time of the year, possibly slightly faster later on in the summer. In which case, in order to run 1:41.7, perhaps his endurance was better than the 3:46.0. That seems more plausible than the 400m time being quicker.

One model, however complex, cannot be totally accurate in determining potentials for all athletes in other events.

Btw, I don't think many would consider a 2:12 (or even a 3:47) as pathetic, but I get the point you were making.

I still think the 800m record is safe at the moment.

the lagat issue is a pretty easy one - those 5ks of 13'30 are pretty derisory & also his "endurance" very unlikely didn't extend "perfectly" to 5k ( despite him never running any serious 800s, i still consider him a 800/1500 guy rather than a 1500/5k guy - look at evidence of that last 800 in athens - that is "speed" of a 1'43 guy )

for argument's sake round his peak 1500 down to 3'26.00 ( just using a round number ) & then estimate his 400/800/1k/mile/3k ability with progressively faster 5ks

3'26.00 with

13'30 ->~ 44.10 1'39.56 2'09.03 3'43.34 7'34.60

13'20 ->~ 44.98 1'40.40 2'09.70 3'43.15 7'31.15

13'10 ->~ 45.86 1'41.23 2'10.37 3'42.96 7'27.69

13'00 ->~ 46.74 1'42.07 2'11.05 3'42.77 7'24.24

12'50 ->~ 47.61 1'42.91 2'11.72 3'42.58 7'20.79

& i'd go to as quick as 12'45 ( just theoretically of course ! )

12'45 ->~ 48.05 1'43.32 2'12.06 3'42.49 7'19.06

( these last 2 are pretty much hicham in in '98 except that his 1500 was probably more like 3'25.50 - 3'25.75 on evidence of last lap of ~ 53.8 with better pacing to bell )

as you can see, as you "tighten up" the theoretical 5k background, his 400/800/etc times start to take on sensible values - old adage : garbage in garbage out - you have to put in some sensible numbers

so,i'd say at his peak, lagat had a theoretical 5k background of ~ 12'45 - 12'50, but his range didn't extend "perfectly" to 5k, so he ended up at 13'00+

coe's figures are similarly "massaged" - 46.0 sounds right & theoretically he shouda been a 3'26/3'27 guy - if you use that,his 800/1k fall into place - it's just that over 1500/mile his endurance wasn't "perfect" ( like 800 ) & he was 2 - 3s off in the real world,but in an era when no-one had broken 3'30, his 3'47 ( = 3'29 ) actual made him king

It seems strange that based on Lagat's 3:26 1500m run, you are willing to give him 1:43 800m ability, despite running them almost every year and never bettering 1:46. You're also willing to give Lagat the benefit of being able to run much faster than the 13:30 5K he ran in 2001(which in essence I agree he was), despite claiming that an athlete's speed/endurance balance changes from year to year.

Likewise, EL G never ran 800m's but allegedly could run 1:42.7 in training. People like your good self accept this because it fits a model. Fair enough. I always thought it very odd that these 1500m greats, who could run the last 2 laps in a Champs in 1:46/1:48, never even dipped their toes into the 800m waters! Were they worried perhaps that their apparent speed endurance in a longer race wasn't matched by reality in the shorter events?

Kipketer never runs 1500m on the circuit, has a pb of 3:40+ and doesn't run within 2 secs of Coe's 1k WR. Not much evidence there of "great" endurance. Yet you mentioned somewhere on here that he could have run well under 3:30 had he run them; based on what he did at 800m. You are willing to give him this great endurance, as good as a 2 times Olympic 1500m champion, with absolutely NO evidence to back it up.

With Coe, however, who actually ran these other events, you claim he had poor endurance over distance and couldn't last to 1500m perfectly. You are prepared to ignore other variables; like dreadful pacing, running the events infrequently and the fact that the whole set up and attitude with regards to fast times in the early 80's was very different; take his 3:47 WR as his full potential, and deduce his endurance was poor. Rather than be rational and think that he only ran 2 miles that year, both WRs, and that had he run a few more and had decent pacing, he might have run 1 or 2 seconds faster; as he did after his first run at the distance.

In another post on here you claim Geb had 3:29 ability at 1500m, the same as you give Coe. Even taking the fact that tracks were about a second faster over 4 laps by the late 90's, I think that is rather far fetched.

I give Lagat 1:44.00 800m ability in 2001 at best, and perhaps 12:55 for 5k. This is similar to Aouita, yet Lagat could run the 1500m several seconds quicker. Perhaps he was dragged to this amazing time by EL G.

Put Coe's 17:54 4 Miles or 20:59 for 7.5km or 18:28 for 6.7km (winning road races) with his 400 or 800 ability into the equation and see what that gives him for 1500/Mile.

Btw, whenever I put in Lagat's pbs for 1500m (3:26.34) and 1 Mile (3:47.28) I get some very odd outputs! E.g 800-1:23.85 and 3000m in 8:41.00!???

I think the men's two-mile is open

i have absolutely no problem saying lagat was a 1'43 guy ( much quicker than 1'44 ) - if a "one-paced" guy like baala with 3'28.9 ability can run 1'43.1, i see no problem whatsoever that a far superior guy in bernie coud run at very worst, the same for 800

bernie didn't run the 800 regularly - maybe 1 to open season, but i never remember him running in a high-quality field on the circuit, so we never had opportunity to judge him - even if he did, it was fairly pointless as in kipketer's era, even 1'43-flat wan't going to win & these guys like winning

kipketer running only 3'40s doesn't make any difference to his endurance

we use 1500m as a "convenient" yardstick of over-distance endurance for 800 guys as it's next race up which is regularly run

kip's over-distance endurance is likely to have been liited to simply a little over 800m, maybe 850 or 900m, but that's all he needed to run 1'41

there is no law stating that 1500 has to be used as the over-distance yardstick - for kip, his over-disance work may have simply consisted of lots of repeats of 900m at close to full-speed ( but the don't run 900m races on circuit ) & that was enough for him

i have also never said anything about kip being a 3'30 guy - on paper he obviously shouda been, but seeing as his endurance didn't extend much beyond 800, it's not of much interest

with coe, you seem to not grasp the matter - his theoretical off 46.0/1'41.5 is in 3'26/3'27 region

no matter how much you play around with factors like poor pacing/lack of races/etc, there is no possibilty whatsoever in any of his races that anyone coud claim that "that wouda been 3'26/3'27 if only..."

somewhere at 3'28 level looked his limit under the perfect conditions of pacing/plenty of races/etc

a 3'28 is NOT 3'26/3'27 & therefore conclusion is obvious - his endurance didn't last perfectly to 1500 ( regardless of who he beat in 4 mile races )

as for geb being a 3'29 guy, what's the problem ?

tell us what you think 3'31.76i is worth ?

as for coe's road races, i didn't use them as those are variable quality/elevation/declination of courses, so results will be poor, but please try them - do we get anything worthwile ?

also lagat did run 3'26 behing hicham but few years later he beat him in 3'27, so there is no doubt he was a genuine 3'26 guy - he backed it up

putting in lagat's 3'26.34 & 3'47.28 will get you very poor results because 3'47 is in no way comparable to 3'26 & because they are so close together, the extrapolation error is huge ( standard 1.08 conversion with 3'26.0 gives 3'42.5 )

just using a round 3'26.0 & "tightening up" the mile from 3'47.0 onwards :

3'26.0 with

3'47.0 ->~ 27.00 1'23.29 1'55.91 8'41.88 16'44.76

3'46.0 ->~ 31.67 1'27.74 1'59.49 8'23.51 15'51.60

3'45.0 ->~ 36.33 1'32.18 2'03.07 8'05.15 14'58.43

3'44.0 ->~ 41.00 1'36.62 2'06.65 7'46.79 14'05.27

3'43.0 ->~ 45.67 1'41.06 2'10.23 7'28.42 13'12.11

we are getting down to "sensible" numbers

now, try 0.25s improvements to mile

3'42.75 ->~ 46.84 1'42.17 2'11.13 7'23.83 12'58.82

3'42.50 ->~ 48.01 1'43.28 2'12.02 7'19.24 12'45.53

3'42.25 ->~ 49.17 1'44.39 2'12.92 7'14.65 12'32.24

3'42.00 ->~ 50.34 1'45.50 2'13.81 7'10.06 12'18.95

experience tells us that ~ 3'42.5 looks the best there

epopians wrote:

Put Coe's 17:54 4 Miles or 20:59 for 7.5km or 18:28 for 6.7km (winning road races) with his 400 or 800 ability into the equation and see what that gives him for 1500/Mile

i don't know what years he ran those races ( if they were in '81 ?! ), but i got some very surprising results !

with 1'41.5

4 miles of 17'54 ->~ 45.44 2'11.15 3'28.38 7'36.62 13'29.98

7.5km of 20'59 ->~ 45.67 2'10.96 3'27.58 7'33.25 13'22.20

6.7km of 18'28 ->~ 45.73 2'10.92 3'27.39 7'32.45 13'20.36

now we have to bear in mind variability of road courses which usually means they are not good figures to use

also i'd be very surprised if he ran those in '81 - perhaps either side when he had less speed/more endurance ( i e not in 1'41.5 shape )

however, if they were all run in '81 & ignoring course considerations, the estimates closest to the mark woud be the one which is closest to his agreed upon 400m time that year of 46.0 - which is the last set

with all those caveats then he did have background over-distance endurance to run 2'10 & 3'27

Surely a lot of the formulas or theories around equivalent performances have now been distorted by the use of epo or similar endurance enhancing drugs?

not particularly

the drugs help all the distance races & they all seem to "even out" in the wash

using 3'29.51 / 12'50.86 ->~ 4'46.28 7'24.06

which corresponds very well to said-sief's actual 2k/5k times ( albeit he didn't run his 1500/5k bests in same year ) & he was a steroid cheat

if anything, drugs make formulas likely more useful as you can run more like a "total machine" than without

sief was on steroids so i'll have dig around & see if any known epo cheat ran well at a range of distances ( ramzi is only one that immediately comes to mind, but he was pretty much a 800/1500 guy with nothing really at 3k/5k & he just didn't run enough races to really get anywhere with analysis-wise )

Would have said women's 800 before Jelimo crashed so badly. So I'm going with the women's 5000.

As for the men, I don't think we'll the a new WR on any distance this year (since the OP ruled out the marathon). Perhaps the 5000 if Kenny made a serious attempt - which I doubt because he's trying to win the Golden league jackpot and that's about winning not times.

Women's 5000 makes sense... Dibaba and Defar have broken that record a few times over the last few years and are not finished yet.

However, I'm guessing the women's 2000 metres could be in danger very soon - not often run, but it is going to be run at Prefontaine Classic.

http://www.iaaf.org/GP09/news/kind=100/newsid=50767.html

Could Maryam Jamal break Sonia O'Sullivan's 5:25.36 at this meet?. There is going to be a pacer in the field, so this could be a serious record attempt.

That's exactly what I was thinking.

That would also explain why some athletes were able to run the last 2 laps in a 1500/Mile so close to their "official" 800pb. It would also shed light on why they rarely, if ever, run 800m in top races, as it would perhaps not follow the time expected in such models.

I have some difficulty in believing that if EL G, Lagat, etc were true 1:42 men, why they didn't run them on the circuit. Even in Kip's era, that would have put them in the top 2 or 3 in the world, and I'm sure they could have avoided Kip; he didn't run in ALL 800m races in Europe in a season.

EPO would have "less" effect at 800m and increasingly more % wise as you go up the distance. So I agree that EPO use would distort the trend somewhat, especially where 800m is concerned. Of course, it would distort even a single reading and this would have a knock on effect.

The 4 Mile run was at the end of '78 (when he'd only run 800m all season) defeating Coghlan & McCloud and beating Brendan Foster's course record of 18:09.

IIRC the 7.5km mentioned is the Vigevano race in April '80 when he beat Cova (before he was world class) by more than a minute. Though he didn't run a really fast 800 that year, pretty sure he could have run at least as fast as his '79 record in the right race.

The 6.7km was the '83 Vigevano race where he beat Gelindo Bordin. That was before all the problems.

Not sure about road courses, but shows there wasn't much wrong with his endurance.

What's the women's 1000m record. Is it still 2:28.98? That's probably the weakest mark, but it needs to be run more often.

The women's 1500, 3000 & 10,000 look untouchable. It's a travesty that they have been allowed to stand. Such a shame for the clean athletes competing today.

I can't see any of the men's records going this year. I'd say EL G's 1500 & Komen's 3k are the safest.

that makes no sense

if you can run <1'43/3'26, it's perfectly possible to run last 800 in 1'46/1'47 in a slow 1500 ( after all 3'26 = 1'49.9 pace )

drugs can't allow you to do the former but not the latter ( look at ramzi's last 400/800 in his semi in peking )

the example that someone brought up which to me is always the telling one is baala

this guy is not in the same class as a prime hicham/bernie but coud go 1'43.1/3'28.9

anything he coud run at middle-distance, those guys coud run quicker

now also we've just seen asbel smash his 1'44.7pb down to 1'43.1 ( & i doubt there's 1 person on this board who doesn't believe he'll go <3'30 this year )

woud you reckon asbel at this age be as good as peak hicham/bernie over 800 ( & all 3 run the same type of race with sustained pace ) ?

yes it woud have less effect at 800 than 1500 or 5k/10k, but the switch to aerobic/anaerobic with increasing race distance is a continous function mathematically which is easily handled by formulas ( if you've got the right one )

there is no trend distortion

'Logic fail. You incorrectly applied his reasoning. Try again'

I'll try again then, he was talking bollocks along with most people on this thread!

meseret defar is running a track 10k tomorrow in stockholm with werknesh kidane, sentaye ejigu and aheza kiros also running.

i think the wr is a little out of jamal's reach this early in season

she's not bad over 3k & has a pb just under 8'30 & i'd guess she has this endurance at present

so, it depends upon what 1500 speed she's got

8'30 with

4'00 ->~ 5'28.30

3'59 ->~ 5'27.52

3'58 ->~ 5'26.74

3'57 ->~ 5'25.96

3'56 ->~ 5'25.18

looking at that, it woud appear she'd need current 3'56 abilty, but that is slightly wrong as i don't think jamal "lasts" 3k perfectly ( she's more like 1500/800 ) & probably has a more likely theoretical 3k of about 8'25 ( i e she coud probably run 2 - 2.5k at 8'25 pace but fizzles out in last coupla laps to 8'30+ )

with 8'25

4'00 ->~ 5'26.92

3'59 ->~ 5'26.14

3'58 ->~ 5'25.36

3'57 ->~ 5'24.58

she's still going to be in 3'57 shape to do it & i don't see this happening

this is a decent wr - sonia ran 5'25 because she had 4'17/8'21 ability that year

on a side-note, vivian has 14'22pb - she's still need 3'59 speed to break it, so she shoudn't be a threat

ukathleticscoach wrote:

The Jundo Predictor (which I don not think is reliable at all, I hasten to add), which I think you're familiar with, claims that to run 1:40.16, the athlete would need to have the ability to run 400m in 43.5 (within a few tenths of the WR)

missed this one earlier

400 guys moving up aren't going to generally have good 1500 or even 1k times to bother mentioning

for them, best guide is a 600m tt

johnny gray's wr is 1'12.8

to run 1'40.0 for a 400 guy, various 600s they'd likely need

47.0 ->1'13.13 2'07.41 3'17.70

46.0 ->1'12.51 2'08.22 3'21.10

45.0 ->1'11.89 2'09.02 3'24.50

then going in 0.25s increments

44.75 ->1'11.73 2'09.23 3'25.35

44.50 ->1'11.58 2'09.43 3'26.20

44.25 ->1'11.42 2'09.63 3'27.05

those last 3 just shows a theoretical 1k/1500m background, but that is unnecesasry as they only need have over-distance race ability for maybe 850 - 900m races

kip showed in his 1'41.2 in zurich off crazy pacing he was probably in 1'40.5 - 1'40.75 shape of maybe 49.5 & i always figured him as a ~45.0 guy, so 1'40.0 is not impossible

if you get a 45.0 guy who whilst maintaining this speed & can go <1'12, he has a very outside shot of 1'40.0

I did not write this, was supposed to be in quotations:

'The Jundo Predictor (which I don not think is reliable at all, I hasten to add), which I think you're familiar with, claims that to run 1:40.16, the athlete would need to have the ability to run 400m in 43.5 (within a few tenths of the WR)'

This was my bit

As you guessed that Jundo thing is not right for this. Coe / Kipketer could do 46+ for 400m. To drop a second would only need someone with 45 something capability. The trouble is that this speed is infringing onto the area of and out & out sprinter with subsequent loss of aerobic ability. That's why the record is so tough

Why should EL G & Lagat be faster than Baala at 800m?

Surely, according to your own model, it depends on their 400m pbs. I don't know what they are, but I'm sure Baala's endurance over distance (3k +) is not as strong as Lagat & EL G's. Perhaps he is able to run 1:43.1 because his speed was superior.

Have always thought it strange Baala & Cacho recorded faster times at 1500m than Cram, Coe & Aouita.

I remember reading details of an interview/ meeting between Cram, Walker and Elliott (Herb, I think) on the Net somewhere, and they concurred that these guys weren't as good as some of the 80's runners. Then again they did run on slightly faster tracks and it was the late 90's.

"that makes no sense

if you can run <1'43/3'26, it's perfectly possible to run last 800 in 1'46/1'47 in a slow 1500 ( after all 3'26 = 1'49.9 pace )

drugs can't allow you to do the former but not the latter"

Hypothetically speaking, if an athlete was on EPO wouldn't it have a minimal effect on running a fast flat out 800m (off say a 51 sec first lap), but would have more of an impact enabling the athlete to run a 1:46 last 800m off a slow (lets say 59 sec 3rd lap) 1500m pace, as the speed endurance (as opposed to basic speed) would be greater?

I'm not sure if I've explained what I'm trying to say v. well!