jerkstore wrote:
He will have the American record in the 10k within 18 months.
Have to agree. 27:33 was 2 years ago. Since then he's run close to that twice in "races"ather than time trials (Oly trials and Oly. final), PRd in every other distance, and collected 3 NCAA individual titles. This old PR is ready to go down.
Pre still holds the OT record at 13:22.8, but I think that is irrelevant to this discussion. The OT is typically a tactical race since 3rd place is as good as first.
Really too bad that Broe couldn't get past his injuries...he could have been a sub 13:10 guy
douglas burke wrote:
i definetely think rupp will run faster starting in 2010, the european meets are set up to run fast, the college meets with rare exceptions are not.
He has been in fast races. The Olympics was a fast race and he got 27:40ish. Running in a Eurpoean race that goes out in 27:00 pace will not do 27:30 runners any good. What happens when our 27:40 runners go to Europe and try to keep up with rabbits that reach 5k in 13:25? They usually have terrible races. Look at all the top American 10,000 meter times. Practically all were set on US soil. The best bet for America's elite is at Stanford, Mt. Sac, even a few races in Canada. Rupp going to Van Damme will equal Rupp being in no man's land.
it might be easier for teg if he didn't have lagat to chase after and about 4 to 5 guys breathing down his neck at the us champs.Bob could use us champs as a workout where as teg at least has to be somewhat on his game.
R-Tip wrote:
I think you're right about Teg. Living in the US makes it very hard to find a lot of sub 13:00 races. But statistics show that almost all guys who break 13:00, even just once, run a shitload of sub 13:10's. The exception is the world beaters at 1500 like Lagat and Maree. But I don't think Teg falls under that catagory. He should've asked Kennedy how he managed to run in Europe so often.
Eritrean hero wrote:
Why we gotta wait for all the young guys? If you look at these boards its like its a foregone conclusion that guys like Pifer, Vaughn, Dobson, Curtis and many other post-collegiates have no room for improvement where as every true freshman out there is destined to be a world beater.
I'm all for some of the older guys to make that jump. Dobson got sort of close, but hasn't shown much promise of improving recently. But statistically, most of them most likely don't have as much ultimate potential as the young guys who are breaking the records.
Rupp's speed has been impressive. Closing the indoor 5000 in 1:55, in particular. I'm certain he'll break 13:10.
5k 10k guy wrote:
it might be easier for teg if he didn't have lagat to chase after and about 4 to 5 guys breathing down his neck at the us champs.
Which brings up an interesting point. Maybe Teg is more of a 13:20 type than a sub 13:10 type.
R- tip wrote:
He has been in fast races. The Olympics was a fast race and he got 27:40ish. Running in a Eurpoean race that goes out in 27:00 pace will not do 27:30 runners any good. What happens when our 27:40 runners go to Europe and try to keep up with rabbits that reach 5k in 13:25? They usually have terrible races. Look at all the top American 10,000 meter times. Practically all were set on US soil. The best bet for America's elite is at Stanford, Mt. Sac, even a few races in Canada. Rupp going to Van Damme will equal Rupp being in no man's land.
You are either a troll and have got me good, or you are just plain stupid regarding Rupp's talent, resources, motivation and general upswing. Rupp is the real deal. He'll be able to go out in 13:25 and not blow his wad. He might slow down from that pace, but not like you would think. If he stays healthy and chooses to focus on a European outdoor season in 2010, he will blow open the American 10k record.
except that Teg has run under 1310 twice, thus making him a sub 1310 type.
Isn't it strange that our Without Limits Savior and Messiah doesn't even make it on that list?
I agree that there's a vast difference between Bob Kennedy and a runner who has been performing at 13:08 or 13:10 for a few years.
Prefontaine lowered his 5k personal best by one second between 1972 and 1974. In 1976, the bronze medalist had a PR of 13:13 going into the Olympics. (Maybe that's why Rod Dixon finished fourth.)
My point is that Prefontaine would have had to make a quantum leap just to have a chance at a medal in the 5,000 in Montreal. Going from 13:21.8 at the age of 23 to 13:12 by age 25 would have been quite a feat.
In any case, the guys with faster PRs than Pre also had stronger kicks. That's why I never bought into the myth about Pre being able to win gold in Montreal at the 5,000. At best, he would have been 5th behind Dixon.
R-Tip wrote:
This list shows just how off the mark proclimations that Rupp or Teg are capable of sub 13:00 are. If you look at Kennedy you see the career of a typical sub 13 guy. He had a best of 12:57 and broke 13:10 like a dozen times. And he barely got it by three seconds. Rupp has a best of 13:18 and Teg has broken 13:10 twice. To make that extra drop would take an almost impossible leap. Now, if Teg ran 13:08's week in-week out, or if Rupp had two or three 27:10's under his belt, then yes, we can realistically expect them to be on the verge of a sub 13. But as it is, Tegs 13:04 and Rups 27:33 are probably already their breakthrough performance.
27:33 and 13:04 WERE their breakthrough performances. Races like that brought them a quantum leap forward and closer to the best they will reach in their lifetime -- that is what "breakthrough" means.
Breaking 13:00 with PRs of 3:35/7:34 and 8:16y is certainly possible. Why do you think that a 5-second improvement is "an almost impossible leap"?
jerkstore wrote:Can you read? BK's pr = 12:58. He went under 13:10 14 times, not, "like a dozen times."
14 times is "like" a dozen times. Especially a baker's dozen.
No way dude, a dozen is like 6-10.
14 is called a buttload.
The pacing in the Olympics was a bit erratic before he got dropped.
1st k 2:50, 2:37, 2:42, 2:50, 2:49, 2:45, 2:41
Not a PR type pace. And he got 27:36.99. Set him up with 65-66s, he\'ll go fast.
Off the top of my head -
1. Indiana
2. Washington State
3. Villanova
4. Wisconsin
5. Colorado
6. Michigan
7. UCLA
8. Alabama
9. Oregon
10. Tennessee
11. Wisconsin
12. Oregon
13. Arizona
14. Northeastern
15. Oregon
16. Villanova
17. California
18. Stanford
19. BYU
20. Indiana
21. West Point
22. Stanford
23. Colorado
I knew Bob Kennedy was good but I never knew he was that good. Wow, thanks for pointing this out. I don't think I will ever look at another 12:50s euro race the same way. You see these guys (east africans mostly) run unreal fast every summer over there. I used to just brush it off, thinking, "Well, the world record is 12:37" but those are crazy fast times.
BTW - Bekele has held the season's best 5k time each of the last 5 years, all at 12:50 or faster.
categorically wrote:
Bekele has held the season's best 5k time each of the last 5 years, all at 12:50 or faster.
He must regret that the 5,000 at the 2004 Olympics was decided by a sprint against Hicham el-Guerrouj, whose 5,000 PR was "only" 12:50.
Catch Me If You Can wrote:
Puskedra will improve on his 13:46, but Coe dropped out (never a good sign) and Estrada and Lowe have a long ways to go: they're probably hoping to run 13:30's by next year, not 13:teens.
Just so you know- it has been widely reported that Coe dropped because of a twisted ankle that he sustained tripping over Kosgei. Don't know for certain if that was the cause, but Coe definitely was the one who tripped over him.
Who is Estrada?
the star of a popular seventies cop show called Chips.