Predictions for Ritz at London?

2:08:25

Bad day- 2:10:30+

Ok day- 2:10:29-2:09:15

Good day- 2:09:14-2:08:00

Great day- sub-2:08

He's not that experienced a marathoner yet, and London is though on guys without experience who aren't fast enough to go out with the lead group's annual near-WR pace. How many Americans have run 2:07:59 or faster?

Here's the thing... Ritz was only two minutes back of a 2:06-low marathoner at the trials, whom he beat at the actual Olympic Games. Both runners looked like they were suffering in the heat, so this wasn't just a case of hall having a bad day. Moreover, Ritz's workouts suggest he is every bit capable of a 2:07 in a rhythmic, consistently paced race and this is his FIRST attempt at running for time on a flat, fast course with presumably good conditions. However, if tries to maintain contact with a faster group in an effort to deliver a 2:06, he runs the risk of fading to a high 2:08 or worse. Of course, one never knows. This kid is talented, and if he is able to hang on... I'm still going with 2:07-high.

Sagarin wrote:

Here's the thing... Ritz was only two minutes back of a 2:06-low marathoner at the trials, whom he beat at the actual Olympic Games. Both runners looked like they were suffering in the heat, so this wasn't just a case of hall having a bad day. Moreover, Ritz's workouts suggest he is every bit capable of a 2:07 in a rhythmic, consistently paced race and this is his FIRST attempt at running for time on a flat, fast course with presumably good conditions. However, if tries to maintain contact with a faster group in an effort to deliver a 2:06, he runs the risk of fading to a high 2:08 or worse. Of course, one never knows. This kid is talented, and if he is able to hang on... I'm still going with 2:07-high.

Sagarin,

Your reasons are all solid. As a result, I would not be surprised in the slightest if he runs 2:07. I wouldn't even be surprised if he dipped into the 2:06s; below 2:06, and I'd be surprised this time. I'm going with the slower 2:08:53 just because he's had some problems in the marathon, but again, I think your reasoning for picking a 2:07 is right on the money here.

beerintervals wrote:

And Ryan Hall has never even broken 28:00... so shy are you comparing Ritz to Salazar?

Because of the following reasons:

Ryan Hall has always been able to run times at a higher level the longer the distance goes. His mile times were good, but his 5k time was better and his half marathon was better than his 5k time and his marathon is better than his half marathon time. This shows his natural inclination toward the longer races. The longer the race the better he has done.

But Ritz like Salazar has always shown the ability to run comparable times are most races above the mile. His 2 mile is equal to his 5k which is equal to his 10k which better than his marathon.

I think he'll run a time that will but him equal to his shorter distance times and that would be about a 2:08. Making his PR's at most all distances very very similar to Salazar's.

The question is will he beat Khannouchi and be top American?

Sagarin wrote:

Here's the thing... Ritz was only two minutes back of a 2:06-low marathoner at the trials, whom he beat at the actual Olympic Games. Both runners looked like they were suffering in the heat, so this wasn't just a case of hall having a bad day. Moreover, Ritz's workouts suggest he is every bit capable of a 2:07 in a rhythmic, consistently paced race and this is his FIRST attempt at running for time on a flat, fast course with presumably good conditions. However, if tries to maintain contact with a faster group in an effort to deliver a 2:06, he runs the risk of fading to a high 2:08 or worse. Of course, one never knows. This kid is talented, and if he is able to hang on... I'm still going with 2:07-high.

Presumably good conditions? (Heavy rain predicted for Sunday...)

some coked up brit wrote:

Presumably good conditions? (Heavy rain predicted for Sunday...)

Well, that could factor, but as long as it's not gusty.

Goes with the leaders and blows up:

2:12

That's actually very good reasoning, thanks for the explanation. Plus, I truly hope to see hall lower that 10k time in the near future, he's surely better than 28:08.

this is easy DNF

i will say 2:06:20, he has better credentials at track 5 and 10k's then hall, so i am guessing him and his coach think he can do at least as good as hall, as for salazar having similar times and being a 2:08 marathoner, salazar ran those at boston and new york, so MAYBE if he ran london instead of the dual in the sun in boston and if there was a group to pull salazar for 30k or more salazar may have run a couple of minutes faster.

as for the person who asked about khalid khanouchi, khanouchi was on the london elite list, but his name is no longer on it.

meb is on the list so ritz and meb should battle for the top american in the race.

Actually, I believe Hall and Ritz's 5k PRs are identical or very close @ 13:16. And based on how Hall has performed in the xc long event, evenagainst Ritz, I'm sure he's every bit as capable at 10k if he sharpened for it. The burden is still on Ritz to show that he can manage his energy efficiently at the end of a very fast 26.2 miles. I'd think that a first half in 1:03:45 to 1:04 would be about right.

the cassidy feed has a poll and most believe he will run between 2:09 and 2:10...

I happen to believe he'll run 2:12+

As usual, good post by douglas burke. I think on a good day he goes sub 2:07, on a great day he is low 2:06, and if he blows getting caught up with the lead pack, he still goes high 2:09.

I believe he is that fit right now. Yes, some will say he should try to be competitive with the leaders, and I agree, but not this year.

He is so long overdue for a solid fast time that he really needs to treat this like a time trial in order to post a time in the 2:06's. By accomplishing this I believe his confidence will grow immensely and it will give him the edge he needs in future races to run with the leaders at more erratic paces.

Hopefully he does better Hall's time, so both are motivated to better that time at this course in 2010. Then we might see one, if not both, hit a high 2:05.

First things first Ritz, nail a good one this weekend.

Those predicting a DNF, do you really see that happening? How often does an American with a legitimate shot in the top 10 of a big marathon DNF? (Barring injury like Deena in Beijing, of course.) I know Kenyans and Ethiopians DNF (like Robert Cheruyiot in Boston on Monday) but they tend to run for the win and if they can't they drop out. American marathoners seem to be more content for a top 10 finish even if they bonk at the end and drop in the standings.

If Ritz has grand designs on a 2:05 or even a new AR, then, yes, he could very easily blow up after starting out too fast. I hope 2:07ish is his target pace, at least starting out and then he can see from there. One step at a time. A 2:07-2:08 would be very good for him.

Hudson has repeatedly commented that Ritz will run a 2:03 marathon.

So...if he's pumping Ritz full of these absurdities, then yes, he will blow up.

I can say this much: The pace will be BLAZING fast, since Tedesse, Wanjiru, and Lel all are looking at a WR. So if Ritz wants to run with the lead group...........he'll get crushed around mile 20-21, maybe before.

The biggest problem with this board is people continue to under-estimate what it takes to run a 2:06 because Ryan Hall ran 2:06. Ryan Hall was on fire AND he's a much MUCH MUCH better marathoner than Ritz is and ever will be.

People will argue that Ritz is better, blah, blah, look at his track times, blah, blah...He's not a better marathoner than Hall, and in time this will be more and more obvious.

Good weather 2:08:06

Rain as predicted 2:10:16