on the runs wrote:
whatever man wrote:
I'll say it now. German can go sub 3:50 at Pre if he holds it.
That'll make sense. Within a few days of NCAAs and all.[/quote]
You mean German won't run NCAA's, Pre and more that week?
on the runs wrote:
whatever man wrote:
I'll say it now. German can go sub 3:50 at Pre if he holds it.
That'll make sense. Within a few days of NCAAs and all.[/quote]
You mean German won't run NCAA's, Pre and more that week?
Coming back in 3 months and running fast miles is not so much compared to sustaining a world class pace over XC for an 8k.
They're certainly not good preparation for the most important race of the season.
J.R. wrote:
Coming back in 3 months and running fast miles is not so much compared to sustaining a world class pace over XC for an 8k.
They're certainly not good preparation for the most important race of the season.
Who cares? He'll be running against a bunch of over-age Kenyans and Ethiopians anyway, so we won't know how he stands against their real juniors. It's fun to see this guy develop this way. I hope he keeps it up all through the outdoor collegiate season and into the summer.
Running an indoor mile against a weak field in February is not development.
The world xc is the only race this month that counts.
J.R. wrote:
Running an indoor mile against a weak field in February is not development.
The world xc is the only race this month that counts.
Sorry, track is where it's at. That's why there's money in the Grand Prix circuit. German was running to score for his team at the Big 12, so the race does count. Development? We'll see how he does on the TRACK over the next few years. There's no XC at the Olys anymore.
It's # 62 on the all-time list.
Who gives a crap sourpuss? He's running fast, that gets established fans excited and draws in new fans, and hence it is good for the sport. The only people who know for sure if he's undertrained, overtrained, past-peak, right on schedule developmentally, etc. are likely the athlete himself and his coach. Either way, if he gets hit by a truck tomorrow, he's still done more for the sport in the last month than most other NCAA athlets combined. Feel free to come back at me with talk of shortsightedness, losing track of the big picture, what he owes the US track community and all of that stuff. You're entitled to your opinion. Allow me and the others who like to see runners run quickly enjoy ourselves. When he finishes last in Amman or runs 14 minutes for 5k during the track season, feel free to come in here and call me out, but until then, save us the gloom and doom.
This thread is exactly why our sport is in the shitter. Rather than being really happy for a kid who has done nothing but put up some sick performances this winter people say he is peaking too early, he's not preparing right, he faked an injury, etc. F*** you all and enjoy it. Who the F*** do you get excited about?
Raining on your Parade wrote:
Fried in 5k wrote:Fernandez will run under 13:20 this year. I think he'll be close to 13:10. Yikes!
He's probably near his lifetime peak already. Another bright star who will fizzle out early.
Really?
It might be true, but it also might not. So what do you get out of trying to turn an amazing performance into a sad sign of burnout?
What is the point of competitive running? Is it to summon your best efforts and achieve amazing performances, or is it just to perpetually hold off for fear of peaking too early? If it's the latter, it's no wonder people don't care. A sport full of guys afraid to run too fast would not be too compelling.
I can not wait till he gets busted for horse piss or something.
If German runs Pre this year and the conditions are reasonable, he'll break 3:50, at 18. And I don't think he even has to get in better shape to do that. He just ran 3:55.02 by himself on (I assume) a 200-220m track. If he exerted the exact same effort in a rabbited race on a 400m track ...
At this time his senior year of high school, Webb ran 3:59i. In the Spring, in his only meet with real competition, he bettered that time by 6 seconds. As crazy as 3:49 is, I think German could do the same.
I don't know how much he'll run the mile, though, because he'll be focusing on the 5k, an event in which he'll have the fastest time in the US this year.
Catch Me If You Can wrote:
I don't know how much he'll run the mile, though, because he'll be focusing on the 5k, an event in which he'll have the fastest time in the US this year.
I really hope he doesn't. I think he can run in the range of 13:10-13:20 which would be awesome but we have a few guys that need to be running faster than that.
remember when WEBB ran 2 seconds faster in HS????
uh_no wrote:
remember when WEBB ran 2 seconds faster in HS????
Age of German right now and Webb when he ran his hs mile-both about 18 yrs 4 months.
Other factors:
3:53.4 in May in 5th place outdoors...
vs
winning by 10 seconds in 3:55flat indoors in Febuary.
Folks - all this talk about his peaking. Anyone willing to bet he is just that good?
He can run a 3:50 mile outdoors. I wouldn't be surprised if he does. Maree's NCAA 1500 record is a realistic goal.
uh_no wrote:
remember when WEBB ran 2 seconds faster in HS????
Remember that Fernandez isn't a miler? Also remember when he broke the 2 mile record last year?
It's a nice mile but whatever.
The big race is at the end of this month.
What's exciting is that we simply don't know his limits yet. Aside from a couple XC races where he was clearly instructed to hold back, he has easily won every single important race he's completed since last summer. Because of his injury (it happens to the best of them -- look at Kastor, Teg, even Bekele) it seems his coach is being very cautious about his training so far. So there's no way he's peaking yet.
I was thinking he'd run around 13:13 at the Stanford Invite. Now I'm thinking Henry Rono's Collegiate 31 year-old record of 13:08.4 isn't safe.
i would give him around 13:25 this year. if you look at the daniels table his mile and 3k are almost perfectly matched up. so if he improves to a 3:53 mile which is a 3:36 1500 (based on daniels table) that would put his 5k time at 13:26. i think daniels knows a bit more than everyone on this thread so im gonna go with his predictions. so if he is a little better at the longer stuff maybe he can pull out a low 13:20s. but i willbe surprized if he breaks 13:20. but then again he has surprized me before.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
What's exciting is that we simply don't know his limits yet. Aside from a couple XC races where he was clearly instructed to hold back, he has easily won every single important race he's completed since last summer. Because of his injury (it happens to the best of them -- look at Kastor, Teg, even Bekele) it seems his coach is being very cautious about his training so far. So there's no way he's peaking yet.
I was thinking he'd run around 13:13 at the Stanford Invite. Now I'm thinking Henry Rono's Collegiate 31 year-old record of 13:08.4 isn't safe.
You probably meant the Cardinal Invite, since he will be racing in Amman during Stanford Invite.
One things for sure, his 5K debut will be highly anticipated and anything less than 13:15 will probably have a lot of hearts sinking. But at a place like Cardinal Invite it wouldn't surprise me if he could. Be nice to get Derrick & Puskedra in there too, have 3 freshmen crack 13:30.
I'm not convinced that Luke or Chris couldn't have a shot at Galens 10K record at a place like Cardinal too. Galen's was set at Oregon going about 14:17 - 13:57 alone the second half. A race like Cardinal might give these guys a shot.