Chelanga's Lack of Experience Shined Through!

CassdeFrance: I agree entirely that trying to run away from Rupp in the first Km wasn't smart on Chelanga's part. As I wrote in another post …

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I personally think Chelanga blew it in the first 1K. He's a gifted, ultra-fit and very determined runner, but 2:35 [for the first km] is just insane. Keep in mind that the ground was softer this time [than it was at Pre-Nats] and they were running INTO a stiff wind for most of the first km., so his 2:35 at LEAST matches his 2:30 opener at Pre-Nats. It might even be faster, and that's for a race that's 2 km farther and run in worse conditions! Not a good idea.

Rupp had a little left in the tank at the end. I think he demonstrated that over the last 200m. Not 30 seconds more, but maybe 10-15 max. But we never catch probability in the act. The race is done. It was what it was, and boy was it ever satisfying.

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If Chelanga had stayed with Rupp for the first part of the race and then started the long, hard drive, I think he would've had a better chance. I still don't think he would've won, but I think they both would've run faster in the end.

Off the Grid wrote:

'08 Kenya list 13:20 would be 29th Kenyan

All time:

30 under 13:00

another 45 under 13:10

another 63 under 13:20

Chelanga is 180th on the Kenyan all-time 5k list, 37th fastest Kenyan in '08.

To that you should add all the Kenyans who race domestically and don't get to run rabbited races at sea level.

I think people forget that Rupp finished 9th at the Osaka World Championships and 13th at Beijing. He didn't need to win an NCAA title to prove that he's a professional.

Below is what I posted on another thread regarding if Chelanga could have won with different tactics:

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"Possibly, but I doubt it. Rupp likely could have run 30 seconds faster had he run like he did a regionals. What's Chelenga gonna do about that? It's like McDougal said, Rupp has all the tools.

He can run all out from the start, he can cover surges time and time again, he can outkick strong kickers. If Chelenga would have really slowed down it may have been interesting, but my guess is Rupp would have assumed the lead and then thrown down hard.

Despite Chelenga going out hard, you have to think about how fast Rupp was going when he made the move to catch him, and Rupp made it look easy."

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A couple things here, Rupp beat Kinsella, Kiptoo, Derrek, Puskedra & Kipchunga all by around a minute over the past two races prior to nationals and those were his first two races of the season. Portland wasn't at conference, but Kinsella and Kipchunga ran also finished around Puskedra & Kiptoo at the Dellinger invite.

Considering how consistent these guys were as top finishers this season and their finishes at NCAA's today it is pretty clear that Rupp was not running on full throttle today but rather on careful calculation and patience. He blew Chelanga away down the stretch and had energy left to smile while doing it.

http://www.goducks.com/pdf5/144896.pdf?ATCLID=1596612&SPID=238&DB_OEM_ID=500&SPSID=4334

http://www.goducks.com/pdf7/151227.pdf?ATCLID=1615620&SPID=238&DB_OEM_ID=500&SPSID=4334

http://www.goducks.com/pdf5/352637.pdf?ATCLID=1625720&SPID=238&DB_OEM_ID=500&SPSID=4334

Looking at where this group from the west finished today, it's pretty reasonable to say that Rupp could have put in 20 seconds faster at least if he ran like he did in the previous to races. Could Chelanga have matched that? I doubt it. I don't think any of his results against competition this year suggested he was ready to run that fast. Despite going out fast, which he has practiced all season, it was Rupp who ran faster than anyone in the race from about 1K to 2K and it looked just like he has looked in the past to races, smooth. If Chelanga would have sat on Rupp, he would have been grinded out of it and the winning margin would likely have been bigger. He did what he hoped would work, but Rupp was too good.

About the only way that you could expect Chelanga to beat Rupp today, is if he suddenly got at least 30 seconds faster.

Exactly, couldn't agree more. Had chelenga slowed down and tried to make it more tactical, he probably would have just let someone else in the race to possibly take 2nd. If you were at the race, which I was, I'd have a hard time arguing with Chelenga's tactics when he and rupp basically ran together for 9k... so was rupp out to fast too?

The fact is, rupp was simply not going to lose today, and trying to say chelenga ran stupid is just another way of trying to say that he should have won, but the reality of the situation is that rupp was just to f'in good.

I certainly don't think Chelanga should have won. I had my money on Rupp for weeks, I'm simply stating an overstated fact. The insight on Rupp's dominance and better fitness is spot on: He was going to win. If you watch his postrace interview, he only talks about the importance of conserving energy and making the move when it mattered. He did that. Brilliantly. What I and others are trying to say is that Chelanga played right into his hands. He didn't make Rupp work at all. He ruined his own legs by piss-pounding the pace early only to be caught, and then he struggled to keep his head as Rupp did, thus all the useless "surges." I was not at the race, but from what I understand to this point Rupp did NOT run 9k with Chelanga. He ran conservative for 5k, caught Chelanga, and then they ran together until Rupp outkicked him. It is very feasible (nay, likely) that, taking Chelanga completely out of the race, Rupp could have run away from the field without worry and run faster even. HOWEVER, Chelanga is a srong runner who many were hailing no more than 10 days ago. As I said, he GAVE Rupp that race by trying to control it with a frivolously expected effort.

You don't think Rupp had to work to bridge the gap Chelanga established in the first mile? What makes you think Chelanga "ruined his legs?" Just because he got outkicked at the end does not mean his legs were ruined. I really think all of this talk of Chelanga opening too fast is misguided.

Rupp was faster than Chelanga today, but if he decides to step to the line against other pros at the worlds, the guys will start faster than Chelanga did today, and they'll keep getting faster, or they'll throw in surges - again and again - and then we'll really see how effective Rupp's strategy is on the big stage.

Hats off to Rupp for his win, but I don't think his win today indicates any master tactical ability on his part.

let's not forget sam has been running for what, maybe two years now?

i'm sure he'll be fine.

I agree 100% with what you said about Rupp not being able to run with other pros at Worlds/beyond. I still think Rupp is cute though, for what it's worth.

The fact that any of you are putting rupp's performance down is ridiculous..he won..thats it nothing else matters..

Also, how can you say that he will never be able to compete on the world level he got 13th place at the olympic 10k as a college student

yeah...and the guy in 13th today was right in the thick of things with Chelanga and Rupp...just like Rupp was right in the thick of things at the Olympics when he was 13th.

leroyisgood wrote:

yeah...and the guy in 13th today was right in the thick of things with Chelanga and Rupp...just like Rupp was right in the thick of things at the Olympics when he was 13th.

Your probably one of those guys who thought Rupp wasn't going to win today. The Olympics are the top stage, get it? 13th in the Olympics as a college runner is damn fine running. What's more important, in case you haven't noticed is that Rupp appears to have made a jump since then.

Some people will always look for a way to keep Rupp down, but in terms of running it will get harder and harder for you.

Ocin wrote:

When you consider that MANY of the Kenyan world class runners have ran high 12's or low 13's than yeah I think E team isn't too far off, maybe he's C team on a good day. Its almost like Sally Kipyego getting all this glory over here winning all these championships. She ain't shit in her own country. Couldn't even make her Olympic team.

You do realize that girl ran a full indoors, a full outdoors.. Then went back to Kenya and raced at 7000ft alt in a race that was basically a fartlek against pro women that train there and she finished 7th.. thats pretty damn good for Kenya. Just give her some time and the right preperation and she'll be seen on the world stage.. And by the way she would of made the Kenayan team in the 1500m..

Pre is looking down from the afterlife right now and shaking his head - an Oregon Duck won the NCAAs by sitting, refusing to take the lead, and kicking for the win.

Three big cheers for the big-balled Chelanga!

The real realist wrote:

Pre is looking down from the afterlife right now and shaking his head - an Oregon Duck won the NCAAs by sitting, refusing to take the lead, and kicking for the win.

Three big cheers for the big-balled Chelanga!

You guys are a bunch of dicks. Rupp just won a national championship with one marvelous race leading up to it and all you can do is nitpick. You are the very definition of loser haters. Excuse me while I go put water in your mama's bowl.

You guys are a bunch of dicks. Rupp just won a national championship with one marvelous race leading up to it and all you can do is nitpick. You are the very definition of loser haters. Excuse me while I go put water in your mama's bowl.

post of the day. Thanks for that. I agree.

Bekele wrote:

Chelanga ran a brave but not smart race, and treated Rupp like he Rupp would not have the capacity to match him over 10K ? Rupp's credentials should have been brought into the equation more, and although I beleive a fast start to separate the men from the boys was good tactic, Chelanga should have let Rupp take some of the pace. Rupp simply outclassed him and was the clear professional in this one !

OK, a few things here...

1. Isn't this message board in unanimous agreement that everything Steve Prefontaine said, ever, is unassailable? And didn't your beloved 'Pre' say something along the lines of "They might beat me, but I'm going to make them hurt doing it"? Chelanga isn't on the same level as Rupp (yet - see point 2), but he took it to him as hard as he could. What else could you ask of the guy? It's hardly as if he died. He just didn't have the kick to match Rupp, and going out slower and risking 3rd or lower wouldn't have given him that kick.

2. Chelanga has shown outrageous talent. Think about this: you have two Galen Rupp clones. You give one of them all of the advantages Rupp has enjoyed (basically EVERYTHING a runner could ask for, I would say), while having the other sit around doing precisely nothing until he was 19, before training him for two years. You race them. How much does Rupp #1 win by? A hell of a lot more than the current Rupp-Chelanga gap. SC will destroy next year.

3. A few people have made this into some sort of America-over-Kenya victory. It's not. If you sent one of your fourth-tier swimmers to race Kenya's best hope, and Kenya's greatest happened to win one race against him, what would that mean? Nothing.

He just went with a poor race plan. You're not going to run away from Ruppy over 10 km, not this year. He should've sat with Ruppy until about 7-8 km and then started surging.

leroyisgood wrote:

yeah...and the guy in 13th today was right in the thick of things with Chelanga and Rupp...just like Rupp was right in the thick of things at the Olympics when he was 13th.

People should really look at the context. Rupp was "only" 13th, but it was in the deepest Olympic 10k field in history, lead by the greatest performance ever. At the end of a brutally tactical race full of surges, Bekele ran the last 1600 in 4:02 and the last 400 in 53.42 for an Olympic record. Rupp was just 35 seconds back in 27:36.

Before that I'd say the greatest performance was Lasse Virén, when he fell in 1972, only to get up, catch the field and win in world record time of 27:38. An American college kid running a time that would have been good enough for not only gold but a world record in 1972, and top ten in any other year, looks pretty amazing to me. The fact that Rupp was in the most competitive 10,000 in Olympic history should not take away from his performance.

American Men's Olympic 10,000 performances since 1964

27:36 Galen Rupp, 13th, 2008

27:46 Abdihakem Abdirahman, 10th, 2000

27:51 Frank Shorter, 5th, 1972

27:52 Abdihakem Abdirahman, 15th, 2008

27:53 Mebrahtom Keflezighi, 12th, 2000

28:13 Jorge Torres, 25th, 2008

28:14 Daniel Browne, 12th, 2004

28:24 Billy Mills, 1st, 1964

28:26 Abdihakem Abdirahman, 15th, 2004

28:29 Todd Williams, 10th, 1992

28:34 Pat Porter, 15th, 1984

28:38 Garry Bjorklund, 13th, 1976

29:09 Bruce Bickford, 18th, 1988

29:20 Gerald Paul Lindgren, 9th, 1964

30:14 Tracy Smith, 11th, 1968

30:26 Thomas Laris, 16th, 1968

30:42 Gilbert Ronald Larrieu, 24th, 1964

31:40 Van Nelson, 28th, 1968

I agree; but I think he just wanted to win a championship!

The reason I don't care that much for Galen is because he's coached by someone outside the Oregon program "Salazar" and my personal observation is that he seems to be an individual on a Team. Then again watching him in the Olympic Trials in the 5k prelims kick in the last 100m when the leaders backed off the pace, and throw his hands up like he had done something, Please!

P.S.

I know that teams are made up of individuals but you have to sit aside the I, and make it about the whole.