Elite Men's 10,000 in Portland tomorrow night!

you are crazy. guess you forget Carney and Torres. both ran 13:30 earlier this year. And Torres has 3:41 speed. Brown is not sniffing the O team.

And some guy named Keflezghi has the #3 qualifying time, but he's old and over the hill so no worries about him, right?

THought he was mentioned already...yeah and Meb too.

When the 10k at trials are over, they will be wondering how sean quigley was able to beat all these aforementioned guys. watch out.

Dan is the Man wrote:

The factual reality is that...

You made me almost spill my coffee.

OK, you dont realize how this works. A "B" is nit going to make the Olympic team in the 10k:

Scenario I below represents a situation where the top finishers are "A" athletes. Scenario II represents a situation where the top finishers have a "B" athlete. The "B" athletes would be skipped and the next "A" athletes would be nominated.

Scenario I

Results Nominated July 8th

1. A 1. A

2. A 2. A

3. A 3. A

4. A 4. A Replacement

5. A

6. A

7. B

8. A

Scenario II

Results Nominated July 8th

1. A 1. A

2. B 2. 3pl "A"

3. A 3. 4pl "A"

4. A 4. 5pl Replacement

5. A

6. A

7. A

8. A

In scenario III, 1st place is a "B" athlete. In this scenario 1st place is skipped and the 2nd, 3rd and 5th place "A" athletes are nominated to the team in order to enter the most number of athletes allowed. Scenario IV the U.S. would only enter the 1st and 2nd place "B" athletes with the 2nd place "B" being the replacement.

Scenario III

Results Nominated July 8th

1. B 1. 2pl "A"

2. A 2. 3pl "A"

3. A 3. 5pl "A"

4. B 4. 6 pl "A" Replacement

5. A

6. A

7. B

8. A

Scenario IV

Results Nominated July 8th

1. B 1. B

2. B 2. B Replacement

3. B 3. --

4. B 4. --

5. B

6. B

7. B

8. B

In scenario V, the 2nd place "B" is nominated to the team and the 5th place "B" is the replacement. Scenario VI is composed of all non standard athletes and shows no one nominated to the Olympic Team.

Scenario V

Results Nominated July 8th

1. NS 1. 2pl "B "

2. B 2. 5pl "B" Replacement

3. NS 3. --

4. NS 4. --

5. B

6. B

7. B

8. B

Scenario VI

Results Nominated July 8th

1. NS 1. No athletes nominated

2. NS 2. --

3. NS 3. --

4. NS 4. --

5. NS

6. NS

7. NS

8. NS

In scenario VII the 1st place "B" is nominated to the team and the "A" athlete is the replacement athlete because only one "A" athlete is in the final thus the highest ranking "A" or "B" finisher is nominated and the next highest place finisher with either an "A" or "B" standard serves as the replacement athlete.

Scenario VII

Results Nominated July 8th

1. B 1. B

2. A 2. A Replacement

3. B 3. --

4. B 4. --

5. NS

6. NS

7. B

8. NS

in the last scenario why is A not the pick and b is the replacement?

If there is only one athlete with the "A" standard in the race and the race is won by an athlete with "B" standard then the "B" goes.

Basically, the only way an Olympic "B" qualifier can go to the games for the USA is if there is one (or zero) "A" qualifiers in the final and "B" wins the final. In a 10k straight final with 2+ "A" qualifiers a "B" qualifier cannot make the Olympic team.

I believe it used to be that a "B" qualifier would make it in the event he/she won the final, but not anymore. It kind of stinks now for the "B" qualifiers- they enter the meet with no possibility of making the games unless all but one "A" qualifier drop out.

If a B qualifier wins the race with an A time then won't he go? I think this possibility will keep the pace honest if Browne and others are fit and want a last chance to make it.

__________

It kind of stinks now for the "B" qualifiers- they enter the meet with no possibility of making the games unless all but one "A" qualifier drop out.

massage guy wrote:

you are crazy. guess you forget Carney and Torres. both ran 13:30 earlier this year. And Torres has 3:41 speed. Brown is not sniffing the O team.

13:30? I'm sorry is that supposed to be impressive? 341 speed? lol...please. First that isn't that fast, second it was 4 years ago. He has a 1320 5k pr from 3 years ago, and a 2742 10k pr from last year. He's done well on the roads so far this year and in XC...but please don't talk about 13:30 like that means something.

I'm a big fan of Carney, hopefully he can step up.

But don't talk down about Dan Browne

Browne is finally coming back to full strength. We should not so quickly forget he qualifed in the 10k and marathon last olympics, while also having the fastest 10k time of the year at one point with 13:16. Dan Brown isn't exactly lacking in speed either. he did run 149 in the 800 in 2002. And you're quoting Torres's 1500 pr from 2004...not really much of a difference. If Dan is in top shape, he should easily give Torres and Carney a run for their money.

i'd be very suprised if any of the people you mentioned: brown, torres, or carney, made the olympic team or even finished in the top 5 (though i'd give carney an outside shot).

abdi would have to have a pretty serious off day to not be top 3.

which leaves two spots, which i think scotty baughs, galen rupp, sean quigley, seth summerside, and fazil bizuneh all have a better shot at. and yes i know that summerside and rupp have not run anything this year. but i think that these guys have not run to their potential yet. a lot of the people you guys are talking about have.

dan brown is a very tough guy and great competitor. but i think the marathon trials in ny in the fall was his last great race.

Dan ran this race with one intention: sub 27:50.

The only possible way that someone can qualify for the olympics with a B standard is if they win the race and 6 of the 7 A qualifers drop out... Not gunna happen.

July 4th (the day of the Trials 10k) is the last chance for runners to hit the A standard. The B standard is virtually worthless (other than the novelty of it). It seems unrealistic that anyone would hit the A standard before the Trials since opportunities have pretty much run out.

In all likelyhood the only people that will be running a 10k before the trials are those running at NCAA nationals. Of those Quigly seems to be the only runner with the capability of sub 27:50 but NCAA's will likely be tactical but even if it isn't since Quigly has the fastest time in the field the only way he would run that fast is if he did a lot of the work himself.

Therefor if anyone wants to go to the Olympics that hasn't already run sub 27:50 then they have to do so at the Trials and they have to be top three at the same time.

That said, the possibility that the Trials race is fast is pretty high since a fair number of quality runners have not hit that mark yet and will probably sell themselves a bit for the chance to go to China. These runners (in my oppinion) are Fasil, Rohatinsky, Brown, Summerside, Tim Nelson, Quigley and possibly Culpepper or Dobson if they run. Rupp or Meb or another one of the A qualifiers might be interested in making the pace fast early to try to eliminate some of the competition but there is certainly no guarantee.

In all likelyhood the people with A qualifiers (Abdi, Rupp, Meb, Torres, Carney, Moran and Bauhs) will sit and go for a ride for atleast 15 laps or more. It is in their general interest that the race is tactical because that makes it a race between 7 people rather than a race between the whole field.

It is a huge advantage for the runners with the A standard since they only have to focus on competing with the other runners rather than the clock. In all likelyhood the top 3 in the race will probably come from these 7 both because they are generally more talented than the rest and because of what is already mentioned, but it is even more likely that the 3 going to Beijing are from these 7.

That is why Dan Brown ran this last weekend. The 28:05 is worthless when it comes to qualifying to the olympics (it does show that he is in shape and he may have gotten some sort of performance bonus for it but that is it).

You do realize that the A standard/B Standard are done differently than they were in 2004?

The rules have been changed.