2008 DIII XC

predictions are also for former runners who are trying to relive their glory days. So I take it you will be racing in Hanover? If so, good luck, my advice on the course is to not get out hard if it's hot. Oshkosh went from 1st to 9th with that strategy.

cortland

nyu

lacrosse

calvin

amherst

wheaton

haverford

NYU won't even win the UAA. If you knew who CMU had coming in, none of you would pick NYU to do anything but have a team daisy chain before the meet.

kibitzer wrote:I guess my pick is Cortland FTW, but I understand they've had coaching changes, so who knows.

Any more details on the coaching change? There's nothing on their website about it, is this legit?

You know they are still the defending champions until next fall...

SUNY Cortland's current Track and Field coach, Steve Patrick, will be the head coach in Cross Country.

haha fools! wrote:

NYU won't even win the UAA. If you knew who CMU had coming in, none of you would pick NYU to do anything but have a team daisy chain before the meet.

I'm really interested to hear this, though not particularly surprised--CMU has good coaching and they've gotten some great recruits in the past.

Please give us some details on the incoming group, if you know any. (Or just names, and let Google do the rest.) And it's great to hear that the UAA is going to be hotly contested--that used to be an extremely competitive meet! Do you know where it's going to be held, by chance?

Looking at the top 6 from last year

1. NYU – Hurt big time by graduation, returning only their 2 and 7 guys. All-american Jesse Schneider will be a solid #1, and the team is usually fairly deep, but they'll likely be fighting for a spot in the top 10 rather than a spot on the podium

2. Haverford – Also hurt by graduation, but should be able to recover much better than NYU. They lose their 1, 2 and 4, but return guys that placed 55, 59, 111 and 123 at Nationals, and have a guy that ran 30:55 this track season who wasn't on the nationals squad last fall. The team typically has a lot of depth, and could definitely challenge for a podium spot.

3. Cortland – Absolutely the team to beat this fall. The third place team from last year returns everybody, and they could easily have 4 or 5 all-americans. Similar to last year, they laid down some really impressive times on the track, as four different guys have run between 30:30 and 30:40 in the 10k, along with two other returning guys who have run 3:51 and 3:53. Those track performances are completely unmatched by any other school in Division III, and the team has had enough cross success to make them the clear favorite. Don't know if the supposed coaching shift will have any effect, but there's enough talent here that they would probably have to really screw up to not win the title.

4. Calvin – The team that was favored all last year and then totally bonked at Nationals could be the team with the best shot at taking down Cortland, if they can perform up to their ability. They lose their 1 and 4, but return all-americans Van Kampen and Christiansen, both of who ran well in track(30:38 and 14:33/30:30, respectively). They also had three other returners run between 9:10 and 9:20 in the steeple, which round out what could be a very solid top 5.

5. UW La Crosse – They lose their top 2, but return guys that placed 72, 73, 74, 75 and 148 at nationals last year. None of the returners from the nationals team hit provo times in track (a lot of guys running around 31:20), though they had a guy run 9:20 in the steeple. If everyone in that tight pack of mediocrity from last year can be at least flirting with all-american, this team could be really good, and they return enough guys that regardless they should expect a top 3 finish.

6. UW Stevens Point – These guys return everyone as well, so they should be very good. One returner ran a 9:13 in the steeple, but other than that nothing very impressive from the track season. They pulled it toether real well for nationals last year though, and if they can get some solid improvements out of their guys they could definitely be looking at top 3.

Other teams that could do well

Carnegie Mellon – Did surprisingly well last year at nationals placing 9th, and they return everybody except for their #2 guy, so they could be up there. Brian Harvey will likely be one of the better runners in cross next year.

Amherst – A young team that seems to be on the rise after their 12th place finish last year. They lose their 3 and 7 guys, but everybody else was a sophomore or freshmen, so look for them to do well.

North Central – Although they have performed pretty miserably the last few years at nationals, they have enough talent that you can't count them out. They had a lot of guys running at or below 15 minutes for the 5k this spring, and you have to figure one of these years they'll get their act together again and actually perform like they should.

I don't know anything about the recruiting classes of these schools, so that could change things slightly, though it's pretty rare that a freshman has a big influence at nationals for the men. And of course, it is a long ways off to nationals, a lot of time for teams to make huge jumps or to flounder. Should be an exciting year though.

UAA's will be at Emory this year. Should definitely be a close meet with very competitive teams.

uaa location wrote:

UAA's will be at Emory this year. Should definitely be a close meet with very competitive teams.

I knew a couple of the UAA coaches, BITD, and I can remember when they had a nine-team conference with six of its members ranked in the top 25 of DIII.

Nowadays it seems like they still put a few men's teams right in the mix at Nationals, and their women's squads are sometimes even more compeitive, if anything.

That should be a crazy-competitive meet in Atlanta this fall. Boy, watching that would be a great day of cross country...

ricky flynn and lynchburg? ran last year with a broken collar bone (yes out of the south) but just finished 10th at natties in the 5k and his qualifier was a second faster than the winning time. out of the south the team should make it with some decent recruits and others healthy granted they stay that way. flynn ftw in south region.

The Hanover course is pretty much like running through a corn field. It's flat and wide open. It could be fast if there is good weather. But, on windy or hot days the course is a bear.

I tend to think the Hanover course is very similar to the course in Terre Haute, the feeling you have running through both is similar. They both look flat but you feel the slight rises when you are running them. Bad weather makes both courses really slow.

info about Calvin's team/distance running program @ http://www.koopsrun.com

bump

This just in, UAA will have at least five teams go to nationals this year and NYU will not win the conference, Might not even come in the top three. Tough conference with most non-nyu big names returning.

So who is in this amazing class that CMU is bragging about. No one listed on dyestat, and I don't think there is that whole element of surprise thing in running, not like people are going to change their training because you are bringing in 2 - 9:25 guys.

Interesting, interesting stuff. Based on NYU's running at the UAA in recent years, I frankly wouldn't be astounded if some other team won it this time. The Violets seem to run the conference meet as mostly a controlled, group effort. If they do that again, I could see how their "group" might not be enough against other teams' returning strength.

They certainly don't seem to gear up for the UAA track meets, and they forgo many available points there, because they typically have bigger fish to fry a couple weeks later. If advancement out of the Region seems like a real question mark (and there are some strong groups returning), I could see NYU's doing the same thing in xc: mostly training through the UAAs, to be ready for the Regional meet...

Kibitzer, you make a good point but here is the big difference. In any year, even the best year, NYU does not have a shot at the UAA title in track, and indoors it is the week before nationals (time to rest, or at least do an off event for teh 5k guys) outdoors, the UAA meet is in early april when for those not in the northeast/ upper mid atlantic dont know, is very early in the outdoor season, when no one is in close to peak performance, especially coming off a very very long indoor season that begins in early december.

Moving on, UAAs in XC is two weeks before regionals and a month before nationals and in the past few years NYU with their team has always had a shot at the title and won it the last two years by convincing margins (beating the rest of the conference).

To say that they don't run all out at UAA XC is malarky. If NYU does not win the conference this year (and I do not think they will). It will not because they run it as a training run and the other teams are running all out, it is because their team is not as good as it was this year or last, and because the other teams are better than them.

This Year NYU will be without Abdallah, Williams, Phillips (Who yes was injured the majority of last season) and McCarthy (even tho I understand he is now an assistant coach). That does leave them with a talented team led by Schnieder, and their coach is always able to recruit well, but loosing 4 of your top 5 is huge. They will be good, will probably hold on for the 3-5 spot in the Atlantic and make nationals, but expect them in that same position at UAAs.