Wholeheartedly agree, although deflating THIS particular credit bubble will not end well. We are going to pay for the cursory and shallow nature of the last recession. The upside is that complacency is finally turning into concern, but not outright despair yet. We will have a tradeable bounce at some point, but I for one, am not buying it, unless I see BROAD leadership on massive volume, not some namby-pamby buying of beaten down finanicals and consumer retailers.
Spoken like a true college student who owns nothing.
( from Drudge) !? People read that site?
Anyway, the Canadian TSX was down 600 points today so that is in line with what will probably happen here in NY tomorrow. 11,000 DOW might be a floor but who knows? This whole mess is uncharted territory. I mean, when people start talking about things like 'monoline insurers' then you know this will not be your ordinary correction/recession. It's likely to be much worse.
phoi wrote:
Spoken like a true college student who owns nothing.
actually I have a considerable sum of capital in the stock market, though you are correct, I am a fairly recent graduate (last 7 years). I agree that for some a recession is a much bigger deal, but a depression is bigger than that and if we keep staving off the recession its going to eventually lead to a depression. Now it sucks for some people, that we are about to head into a recession, especially those about to retire, But thats life. If your smart you can actually make a good deal of money in a recession with short positions, straddles and options, as well as futures. People, you can't have the good times without the bad...something we seem to have forgotten.
It's already Tuesday in Australia and New Zealand, and right after opening, both stock markets tumbled by another more than 3%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNZT0yR7joxc&refer=home
Better fasten your seatbelts!
Keep your eye on these charts. It's looking ugly. Australia getting bitch slapped early on.
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html
I'm guessing we're looking at around a 7% (close to 800 points) drop tomorrow. The 5% we missed yesterday and the 2% for today. Hold on to your hats!
economics major wrote:If your smart you can actually make a good deal of money in a recession with short positions, straddles and options, as well as futures. People, you can't have the good times without the bad...something we seem to have forgotten.
Post your "short positions, straddles and futures" right now. We'll see how well they do?
Drawdowns from new highs Dow: 1896-2007
Note: not dividend or inflation adjusted.
If you bought the index at the peak it would have taken the following to regain that prior level.
(1929-1955)26 years (Depression):
1905-1915 10 years
1972-1982 10 years
2000-2007 7 years
1919-1024 5 years
between 1-5 years (many)
Times down from new highs >10%
89% : 1
40-50%: 6
30-40%: 7
20-30%: 4
10-20%: 15
malmo wrote:
Post your "short positions, straddles and futures" right now. We'll see how well they do?
Long the VIX buddy. That's all you need to know.
Caveman wrote:
I'm guessing we're looking at around a 7% (close to 800 points) drop tomorrow. The 5% we missed yesterday and the 2% for today. Hold on to your hats!
Maybe, but I doubt it. I'm looking at about 4.5% (about 500 Dow points) down tomorrow. Keep in mind that 300 Dow points were taken out on Friday. Today was the first chance that Asia and Europe had to react to the U.S. market on Friday.
Well, by admission, I'm a "glass half empty" guy... and I'm watching the Australian market go bananas right now. ("Bananas" as in wild crazy selling, not "bananas" as in extreme celebration.)
Sagarin wrote:
Long the VIX buddy. That's all you need to know.
Size, strike and expiry? When did you put the trade in?
A lot of blood already spilled. Panic selling. I look for a rough start tomorrow and ending with a bit of surprise to the upside off the lows. Asian markets recover off the lows tonight too. There are buying opportunities forming. The problem is nobodies ready to bite.
Dude, seriously? Alright, I'll play. Feb. 30 calls on Friday. Not a major position, but I wouldn't divulge it even if it were. The rest is in cash, which is a position too. You?
George, are you actually trying to pin down these futures geniuses?
If you are young and putting money into the market with a long term horizon, why are you so worried that the markets are going down right now? You will be able to more shares of the companies you like for the same amount of dollars as you did a few months ago.
If a pair of shoes all of the sudden dropped in price 15% wouldn't you be pleased?
If you have a job and have enough time at the job to post and read comments on letsrun, you should be pleased that the market is taking a hit.
It may suck for your friends who lost their job but the recession (if it actually turns out to be one) will not be forever. They will be able to get another job albeit maybe not as high paying as their job at the mortgage company they had before this mess began.
Japan and Korea plunging! Autie Em! Auntie Em! It's a twister!!!!! It's a twister!!!!!
if you are smart you will all be buying as the market tanks. things will be ok evenutally, this is the time that you want to get in, when all news is bad news and everyone is painting an end of the world type picture.
The smart money is probably shorting some things into this, but they are also picking away at the longer term investments that they trust in, building positions larger and larger so that when a turn around comes, and it will, they will be making bank.
Sagarin wrote:
Dude, seriously? Alright, I'll play. Feb. 30 calls on Friday. Not a major position, but I wouldn't divulge it even if it were. The rest is in cash, which is a position too. You?
I have trouble believing in back-dated trades, especially expiration Friday before a three day weekend. How much did you pay? What time was the print? What are your commissions? Why pay a premium for the (overpriced) options when you could have been long the futures?