NCAA DIV 1 X COUNTRY PREDICTIONS

i question how their performance changes from the beginning and middle of their season to the end of their seasons - how they peak is what i meant. and if i said them finishing 3rd last year meant that they had established themselves as a national powerhouse, i suppose making that statement is a bit overdue, because i don't have years of experience in much of anything really and have only been closely following college cross country for the past 2 years.

Reade, you must admit I did make this comment in support of Iona, and I don't think it can be argued that no one expected them to finish in the top 5, so I think I did give them their due credit. What I am saying though is that I think they ran like they were the 5th-3rd best team in the nation the whole season, and finishing like that implied that they didn't 'step it up' or in other worse, improve from that position, when nationals came around, because that's what this thread is about, right? Who's going to step up, who's going to step down, and who's going to stay right where they are.

irun wrote:

...iona did well last year, but i wouldn't say they did anything that wasn't already predicted by many they would do....

Now some comment specific to irun above.

I think that Wisconsin has more depth and that that depth is at a slightly higher level than people think. That is why they went from #6 to #4 in the polls (although they did not pick up that many additional points).

Solinsky was sick last year and ran a strategy as though he was not; when he faded, he faded badly (it had never happened to him before). Josh had a more normal off day, which is harder to figure because presumably 10k would be better for a high-mileage runner.

As you indicated, the teams that can afford to run alternates at the Regionals have an advantage over other schools (Oregon and Wisconsin and those in weak regions).

Also, on the women's side the Pac-10 has four in the top ten, but then nobody in the next 15.

Generally several teams ranked about 8-20 either have huge days and break into the top-10 (because they're 10k oriented on the track and have the strength to withstand running a hard 10k at regionals and at nats) or they don't and they end up slipping several spots.

Good thoughts. My prediction on the men's side:

1. Wisconsin

2. Colorado

3. Iona

4. Oregon

5. Northern Arizona

Individuals:

1. Lomong

2. McDougal

3. Vaughn

4. Rupp

5. Withrow

The Gaels

Duckaroos

Buffs

Team Lomong

Big "Bad" Badgers

The Africans

Razors

The Hoos

Tribes Men

Louisville

Cardinals

1)Lomong

2)McDougal getting outkicked

3)Rupp

4)Vaughn

5)Kiptoo

Sleeper pick FTW=UTEP

Sleeper pick FTsurprisetop5=louisville

sleeper pick for top true freshman=Emil Heinking

sleeper pick for the biggest blow up=Wisconsin

sleeper pick FTW=Korir

sleeper pick FTsurprise top 5=Bobby Curtis

I think Forrest of Ark will surprise the naysayers this year. Idk about top 5 but I think he has a legit top 10 shot

irun wrote:

each year i think i learn a little more about what it takes to do well at nationals. let's analyze it a little.

...so teams like utep, iona, oklahoma st, may show some impressive performances for a race or two in the middle of the season...

you lost me right there.

iona and oklahoma state have, in fact, proven last few years that they always peak at the right time more so than most teams (excluding Colorado, of course). If I remember correctly, Oklahoma State always ran like they were maybe a 15-25 team the last two years until they win their region and finished top 10 at nationals...

I still wouldn't count Michigan out(of being competitive at regionals and qualifying for nationals). Look at Big 10's and other races:

Big 10's:

Michigan:

7 Craig Forys 23:56

16 Sean McNamara 24:15

23 Brandon Fellows 24:29

26 John Black 24:38

36 Ciaran O Lionaird 24:53

42 Lex Williams 25:01

44 Victor Gras 25:02

73 Justin Switzer 25:57

Pre-National's:

Michigan:

7 Mike Woods 23:24

28 Sean McNamara 23:48

48 Brandon Fellows 24:03

58 Ciaran O Lionaird 24:09

67 Victor Gras 24:14

86 John Black 24:22

101 Justin Switzer 24:29

Lex Williams has been out due to health issues, so who knows if he will make it back to racing and if he does what kind of shape he will be in. For some reason though, Michigan ran without Mike Woods, who would've made a considerablly different outcome in the team's scoring if he had raced(assuming he was healthy enough to run). Woods probably would've placed in the top 5, which means Michigan would've had a score of about 104 - 27 = 77 points, which would've put them in 3rd place. If Lex Williams comes around in time for regionals healthy and ready to race, he could make a considerable contribution as well. I know there are a few 'if's and hypothetical's, but the fact is they aren't unlikely or out of reason. If I were a coach concerned with placing 2nd to Wisconsin, I would definitely be thinking about this. They may have dropped 20 places in the rankings, but like the BCS, it's hard to take everything into consideration when ranking a teams potential. Bottom line, don't rule Michigan out from qualifying for nationals.

Oh yeah, Craig Forys is looking pretty strong too(he beat Wisconsin's 3-5 runners), so throw him into the mix with Woods, and Michigan might be considerably close to Wisconsin at regionals.

dabears wrote:

I think Forrest of Ark will surprise the naysayers this year. Idk about top 5 but I think he has a legit top 10 shot

lets hope he doesn't load up on coffee the night before the meet, get a terrible nights sleep and run like a zombie, all of which he did last year.

yep, poor evaluation on my part.

I still cannot see anyone beating Lomong. Just gets stronger every race. NAU, Oregon and Iona battle for the title. NAU wins a close one with 130 points. Oregon gets 2nd in 134 points with Iona at 145 for 3rd. I wish I could be there as it will be fun to watch!

crazy streaker wrote:

sleeper pick FTsurprise top 5=Bobby Curtis

Would anyone really be surprised if Bobby Curtis finished in the top 5?

Race will go out rather casually in 4:36 - 4:40 allowing Lomong to sit in and win over the last two miles, no one can finish with him, he has the best leg speed amongst the field, best finishing kick as well

I think that Woods DID run; I think he dropped out somewhere about half way holding his foot and looking very disappointed (I think I remember that he was carted off). The Big Ten results do not list DNFs but the teams were allowed to run 9 with the top seven in the official scoring. Michigan only had one non-scoring runner.

If you want to talk about the level of the teams if everyone is uninjured, you need to put Eagon right up with Withrow and take the plantar f problem away from Wagner. Wisconsin already finished with five in the top 10, they would have had 1/2/5/9/10/11/19, scoring 27 and beating the entire league again 3/4/6/7/8 = 28.

Putting in Woods and Lex both is not going to get you over the top, with 5/6/9/19/25 = 64

Altered scoring, not that it matters

1 Withrow, Matt JR Wisconsin 23:44.37 1

2 Eagon, Stuart JR Wisconsin 23:45 2

3 Mead, Hassan FR Minnesota 23:47.70 3

4 Hoerr, Trent SR Illinois 23:49.39 4

5 Wagner, Christian JR Wisconsin 23:49 5

6 Rombough, Chris JR Minnesota 23:54.48 6

7 See, Jeff JR The Ohio Sta 23:56.43 7

8 Forys, Craig FR Michigan 23:56.77 8

9 Lacy, Andrew SO Wisconsin 23:58.10 9

10 Peacock, Landon FR Wisconsin 24:01.84 10

11 Bethke, Brandon SO Wisconsin 24:03.17 11

12 Ealy, John SR The Ohio Sta 24:08.22 12

13 Tahdooahnippah, Forrest SR Minnesota 24:11.94 13

14 Bailey, Alexander SR The Ohio Sta 24:13.39 13

15 Hardacre, Cole FR Indiana University 24:13.74 14

16 Kyle, Jordan SO Indiana University 24:14.72 15

17 McNamara, Sean SO Michigan 24:15.23 16

18 Grunewald, Justin SR Minnesota 24:16.56 17

19 Bolas, Jack FR Wisconsin 24:24.11 19

I could definitely see Jacob Korir winning. He is the real deal. I ran in the same conference as him and he never had to try ever except for his first year in the conference, but after that he just killed people. He is better at xc than he is in track. He got fifth last year and has run under 23:00 at ISU.

Diamond Miner wrote:

Galen and the Ducks

Da badgers

Colorado

Iona

Lopez and friends

Arkansas

stanford

The (Diamond) Miners

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

funniest thing i've seen in a while

Anonymous wrote:

Race will go out rather casually in 4:36 - 4:40 allowing Lomong to sit in and win over the last two miles, no one can finish with him, he has the best leg speed amongst the field, best finishing kick as well

Ah yes, a nice leisurely 28:35-29:00 pace.

Well im a fan of Joe franklin so i hope New mexico gain qualiification to the NCAA. Im sure joe is doing well with the guys. An amazing man, with very good methods and also very good with all the athletes. Also Give a good shout out to Erin, she is a very good assistant coach.

Anyone wanting to get on a good program choose New Mexico, Good coaching, Good athletes, and also excellent training facilities (altitude).

Go Franko/Erin