Are You Surprised That Geb Will Race Fukuoka, 10 Weeks After Berlin, And 4 Months Before London? Is He Overdoing It?

thus once again

Letsrun case study=universal law.

oh yeah, geb's at least 40. pretty sure that 2:05 was a masters record. i expect within 3 or 4 years he will shatter rono's 50-plus mile record.

rbyrne wrote:

Of course he knows what he's doing. He's cashing in towards what many thought was the end of his career. The roads are there for him to make a lot money.

I sincerely doubt that the money is that big a deal to him. Geb really wants the marathon WR and is simply trying to find the perfect race. As any old timer knows, Fukuoka used to be "the" fast race: Clayton's 1st WR was set there, Shorter's AR and PR was set there, etc. The only reason that young folks haven't heard much about it is that--I presume--there isn't a ton of prize money to go around.

Geb's career is simply amazing.

Also, I know from experience that if the weather doesn't cooperate, it can be rough out on that course with the wind. Here are results from 2004-

1 JPN Tsuyoshi Ogata 2:09:10 (2005 WC Marathon Bronze)

2 JPN Ozaki 2:10:56 (2:08 low PR at Tokyo)

3 KEN Sammy Korir 2:10:56 (post berlin 2:04:56)

4 RSA Gert Thys 2:14:27 (2:06 something PR)

5 JPN Mukae 2:15:27 (2:11:01) PR

6 FRA Mohamed Ouaadi (:07:55 PR)

7 ETH Negusse 2:16:12

8 JPN Umeki 2:16:17 (2:09:52 PR just finished 3rd at Berlin)

I was 14th in this race and ran terribly because I couldn't lift my legs. The stiff and cold headwind the last 10km hurt.

groove machine wrote:

are you stupid. its not just fast, but wicked fast. Out and back. A TON of 207s have been run there by fellas that didn't have half the talent of Geb. Yes, I was very surprised he was deciding to run it. No, he's not overdoing it. He is very clued into his body...more than most.

There have been 7 sub-2:08s ever at Fukuoka. Not exactly A TON. There have been only 2 men sub-2:07:52. Abera, who is no slouch, and is a three-time Fukuoka champion, has a Fukuoka best of 2:07:54.

There is little doubt that he can crank out a quick one in Japan. And I agree that he wants the world record but I still believe his decision is influenced by money. I don't blame him either......

rbyrne wrote:

There is little doubt that he can crank out a quick one in Japan. And I agree that he wants the world record but I still believe his decision is influenced by money. I don't blame him either......

Fair enough. I'd guess this decision is 98% influenced by his desire to get the WR, and 2% influenced by his desire for money. He'd get big money to run pretty much anywhere at any time. I'd guess that he'd get considerably less to run at Fukuoka than, say, Chicago or New York. Ergo, the 98/2% split.

more detail

As Canucks know, Jerome Drayton ran there a lot when he was one of the world's perennial top ranked marathoners. Even ran his PR (and the Canuck national record) there, I think. And of course Bill Rodgers used to do Fukuoka too. He'd often do more than the standard spring and fall marathon. He was a total work horse, of course, and has remarked that in retrospect he often ran too many marathons at a high level in the course of a given year. But Geb is - duh - no slouch. And Fukuoka, although no longer the unofficial world champ race that it was once considered to be, has a pretty stellar past champs list. It'd be a serious feather in Geb's cap.

Ron Hill was the ultimate "racing machine". He ran 4 or 5 marathons a year many times. He was world class. He would, however, have gotten faster had he not run so many 1/2m's on up...

I predict that Geb will not run London. If he does this triple it will cost him big time, as he will be doing them at his "super sonic" speeds...multiple marathons close together do permanant damage to the body.

Haile is going to Fukuoka for a world record attempt I believe. He can get it there, it's soon after Berlin, but may work. There is time enough for him to do this, but doing 3 marathons in a year is challenging so most marathon runners do just 2.

I think people are sometimes overly afraid of the marathon. Haile will be fine to run the Fukuoka marathon, no problems I believe. We've seen what he did a year ago, with his races between Amsterdam and London.

He won't get the world record there. I will gaurantee it. If you would like to wager, Micheal, we can do so.

Simple. It's the money.

I was press conference moderator in Berlin and sitting next to Gebrselassie when he mentioned the possibility of running Fukuoka. I was surprised to say the least and still am not sure if he was serious or not. But when I put a follow-up question his reply was, "Sure, why not?" He did explain later that he preferred to get back into training rather than have a lay-off, the latter didn't seem to agree with his body. I had my doubts about him even winning beforehand, since I thought the marathon was simply too long a race for him, but with Korir dropping out it was no contest. Geb did look great and the TV close-ups showed his running style very well, the heel barely touching the ground. It works for him but he is, as the classicists say, sui generis.

What are the average temps there? I heard it has recently snowed there (maybe when the Russian won). How would Geb do in unfavourable conditions?

Consider how many marathons KK ran before his first WR run (two), and Tergat before his. I'm guessing that Geb realizes that he's getting up there in years, his chances of ever getting the WR are diminishing with each attempt, and he's racking up as many big paydays as he can before he can't.

I imagine if I was in his position, I'd be doing the same thing.

I applaud him

He is giving fans what they want

Conditions were unfavourable in berlin on sunday - temperatures much higher than in the few other sub 2.06 marathons so far achieved, and strong headwinds in several places. Look at the times of the other Top 10 guys against their track records to indicate that it wasn't ideal.

After Sunday I am convinced Geb can easily get the WR. But it does take luck with the conditions and peaking etc...

he seems to have conquered all obstacles except the luck of race day conditions. Sunday's effort was worth something close to 2:04 in ideal weather.

I'd say Geb has been geting better with each race, and has a good 2 year window ahead in which to nail 2:04.