At World Indoors this year, Keely anchored the 4x400 relay in 50.10 less than an hour after winning the 800 in 1:55.30. She ran the 400 leg by herself, as her team was way out of contention by then:
That is What I am Thinking, 49.4-49.8 is My Prediction, but that might not make top 3 in this race, if Naser runs 48.5 which is reasonable for her, a few others will get pulled to good times
She is up against some tough competition such as Klavier, Lurdes Manuel, Amber Anning, Henrietta Jaeger, Natalia Bukoweicka.
I am expecting Keely to run no faster than 51.5
I think the dream goal will be 51.0 - she will get close. I'll go with 51.08
I get the logic that she ran 51.49 indoors and indoors is supposed to be slower than outdoors - but at that running speed (less than 8m/s) I don't think running the tighter curves of the indoor oval are really impacted. As for seasonal timing - the "off" season isn't what it used be to anymore, athletes are closer to their peak all year round and that includes her.
So I give her a slight boost but not much, hence the low 51.0 (which would also be a PR anyway).
And, when it comes time for her to run her first 800 which will be 3 days following in Stockholm, don't forget the Keely Equation:
Fan Out West ->03/27/2026 3:11am EDT2 months ago
Keely's 1:54.87 indoor WR averages 57.44/400.She also just ran an indoor 51.46 for the open 400.So, for Keely, double the distance, add 6 secs/lap.Outdoors, assume Keely can run a 50-point for 400.Add 6 seconds for the 400 =...
I think the dream goal will be 51.0 - she will get close. I'll go with 51.08
I get the logic that she ran 51.49 indoors and indoors is supposed to be slower than outdoors - but at that running speed (less than 8m/s) I don't think running the tighter curves of the indoor oval are really impacted. As for seasonal timing - the "off" season isn't what it used be to anymore, athletes are closer to their peak all year round and that includes her.
So I give her a slight boost but not much, hence the low 51.0 (which would also be a PR anyway).
And, when it comes time for her to run her first 800 which will be 3 days following in Stockholm, don't forget the Keely Equation:
That is What I am Thinking, 49.4-49.8 is My Prediction, but that might not make top 3 in this race, if Naser runs 48.5 which is reasonable for her, a few others will get pulled to good times
Wait, Keely Hodgkinson is going to run 49.4-49.8 for 400m? Keely Hodgkinson the Olympic 800m champion?
Right, but the number of turns only matter if a "turn" actually has a negative impact on running speed and that is my point. And the speed at which they are running and their body mass is what matters because it's the fight against centripetal force which is what slows them down. Heavier runners running faster are affected more than lighter runners running slower.
So back to my point, at a certain momentum (because the athlete mass matters) there is no appreciable difference at all between running indoors and out. The amount of turns is irrelevant. Keely is what, 55-60kg? (120-130 pounds). She's running around 7.7m/s - thats slower than what Josh Hoey runs an 800m indoors at. Not only that, the banking of an indoor track basically mitigates any centripetal force she needs to fight. Femke Bol has run 49.17 and 49.26 indoors and 49.44 and 49.48 outdoors for this very reason.
You're not getting the physics quite right here.
In an ideal banked turn all the force required to make the turn comes from the increase in normal force between you and the ground. This feels exactly like higher gravity and is essentially free in cars or on a bike except for the slight increase in friction.
But for a runner an increase in felt gravity requires actual extra work, as you can't avoid moving your center of gravity up and down.
The amount of time spent in curves is the same on indoor and outdoor tracks of course. But they're tighter indoors so the required force and so the increase in felt weight is greater. Effectively your average racing weight during the race is higher on a short track.
It's not just that the turns are tighter, there are also twice as many of them. I think she'll be disappointed if she doesn't go below 51s.
Right, but the number of turns only matter if a "turn" actually has a negative impact on running speed and that is my point. And the speed at which they are running and their body mass is what matters because it's the fight against centripetal force which is what slows them down. Heavier runners running faster are affected more than lighter runners running slower.
On the mens side we really start seeing the marked impact of the tighter turn (and the fact there are two more of them per 400m) with the 400m guys. The indoor WR is 44.52 compared to 43.03 outdoors - 3.3% slower. But the 800m WR is only 1.6% slower, the 3000m only 1.2% slower (and even that is using the crazy outlier performance of Jakob which is over 3 seconds faster than the 2AT mark). To prove what I'm saying, do you think there is any difference (ie is it harder) for you to run a 7min mile on a 400m track vs a 200m indoor track?
So back to my point, at a certain momentum (because the athlete mass matters) there is no appreciable difference at all between running indoors and out. The amount of turns is irrelevant. Keely is what, 55-60kg? (120-130 pounds). She's running around 7.7m/s - thats slower than what Josh Hoey runs an 800m indoors at. Not only that, the banking of an indoor track basically mitigates any centripetal force she needs to fight. Femke Bol has run 49.17 and 49.26 indoors and 49.44 and 49.48 outdoors for this very reason.
She probably will be disappointed if she doesn't go sub 51 but purely because she's a competitor. But I'll stick with her marginally over that - not like running 51.0X is a bad performances for the worlds best female 800m runner.
That's just because Femke almost never runs the outdoor 400. There Is at least 1 second difference between indoors and outdoors
Right, but the number of turns only matter if a "turn" actually has a negative impact on running speed and that is my point. And the speed at which they are running and their body mass is what matters because it's the fight against centripetal force which is what slows them down. Heavier runners running faster are affected more than lighter runners running slower.
So back to my point, at a certain momentum (because the athlete mass matters) there is no appreciable difference at all between running indoors and out. The amount of turns is irrelevant. Keely is what, 55-60kg? (120-130 pounds). She's running around 7.7m/s - thats slower than what Josh Hoey runs an 800m indoors at. Not only that, the banking of an indoor track basically mitigates any centripetal force she needs to fight. Femke Bol has run 49.17 and 49.26 indoors and 49.44 and 49.48 outdoors for this very reason.
You're not getting the physics quite right here.
In an ideal banked turn all the force required to make the turn comes from the increase in normal force between you and the ground. This feels exactly like higher gravity and is essentially free in cars or on a bike except for the slight increase in friction.
But for a runner an increase in felt gravity requires actual extra work, as you can't avoid moving your center of gravity up and down.
The amount of time spent in curves is the same on indoor and outdoor tracks of course. But they're tighter indoors so the required force and so the increase in felt weight is greater. Effectively your average racing weight during the race is higher on a short track.
No I'm getting the physics exactly right my friend.
F=mv^2/r
with a constant radius (lets say 17m for an indoor track), an increase in body mass and/or speed will increase the centripetal force. So the force acting on Josh Hoey at 70kg running 51.5 speed is higher than Keely at 55kg running the same speed. For Keely that force is approximately 197N
And sure, as the radius increases the force reduces - nobody was arguing that. But since you want to talk physics, you'll also understand the impact that the banked angle of an indoor track has on mitigating the increase in force created by the tighter radius. Right?
Most indoor tracks have banked curves between 10 and 18 degrees - for arguments sake lets just split it and say 14 degrees.
Normal force = mg/cos14(degrees) - 556N.
The horizontal component is 556sin14(degrees) - 135N
So the actual centripetal force she needs to overcome is 197-135 or 62N.
The question is, when you balance that extra force vs the benefits of running indoors - primarily in terms of temp, wind and then the inherent spring of indoor tracks because they are laid on hollow structures vs concrete like an outdoor track, where do we land in terms of net benefit/detriment? For me it's all pretty close - but that's just my opinion.
That's just because Femke almost never runs the outdoor 400. There Is at least 1 second difference between indoors and outdoors
So your contention is that Femke is a 48.1 second outdoor 400m runner? She ran like 47.9 in a 4x400 (so maybe just less than 400m + with a flying start) The fantasy world of "if's" some of you live in are remarkable.
She is up against some tough competition such as Klavier, Lurdes Manuel, Amber Anning, Henrietta Jaeger, Natalia Bukoweicka.
I am expecting Keely to run no faster than 51.5
Rome DL womens 400 has never been very fast because of where it is in the season. I would consider anything under 51 a very good result for her. I expect somewhere in the range of 51.6~
when was the last time there was a w400 in rome? i thought it was just the 400mh?
Right, but the number of turns only matter if a "turn" actually has a negative impact on running speed and that is my point. And the speed at which they are running and their body mass is what matters because it's the fight against centripetal force which is what slows them down. Heavier runners running faster are affected more than lighter runners running slower.
On the mens side we really start seeing the marked impact of the tighter turn (and the fact there are two more of them per 400m) with the 400m guys. The indoor WR is 44.52 compared to 43.03 outdoors - 3.3% slower. But the 800m WR is only 1.6% slower, the 3000m only 1.2% slower (and even that is using the crazy outlier performance of Jakob which is over 3 seconds faster than the 2AT mark). To prove what I'm saying, do you think there is any difference (ie is it harder) for you to run a 7min mile on a 400m track vs a 200m indoor track?
So back to my point, at a certain momentum (because the athlete mass matters) there is no appreciable difference at all between running indoors and out. The amount of turns is irrelevant. Keely is what, 55-60kg? (120-130 pounds). She's running around 7.7m/s - thats slower than what Josh Hoey runs an 800m indoors at. Not only that, the banking of an indoor track basically mitigates any centripetal force she needs to fight. Femke Bol has run 49.17 and 49.26 indoors and 49.44 and 49.48 outdoors for this very reason.
She probably will be disappointed if she doesn't go sub 51 but purely because she's a competitor. But I'll stick with her marginally over that - not like running 51.0X is a bad performances for the worlds best female 800m runner.
That's just because Femke almost never runs the outdoor 400. There Is at least 1 second difference between indoors and outdoors
Salvitore—the village idiot— speaks again. This time he's acting as a physicist. 😂
That's just because Femke almost never runs the outdoor 400. There Is at least 1 second difference between indoors and outdoors
So your contention is that Femke is a 48.1 second outdoor 400m runner? She ran like 47.9 in a 4x400 (so maybe just less than 400m + with a flying start) The fantasy world of "if's" some of you live in are remarkable.
What's your point? You know 47.9 is one the fastest splits ever? The fastest split ever is 47.6. Sydney's fastest split is 47.7
In an ideal banked turn all the force required to make the turn comes from the increase in normal force between you and the ground. This feels exactly like higher gravity and is essentially free in cars or on a bike except for the slight increase in friction.
But for a runner an increase in felt gravity requires actual extra work, as you can't avoid moving your center of gravity up and down.
The amount of time spent in curves is the same on indoor and outdoor tracks of course. But they're tighter indoors so the required force and so the increase in felt weight is greater. Effectively your average racing weight during the race is higher on a short track.
Yes, that's a nice explanation. Noting also that the banking is unlikely to be ideal.
That is What I am Thinking, 49.4-49.8 is My Prediction, but that might not make top 3 in this race, if Naser runs 48.5 which is reasonable for her, a few others will get pulled to good times
Wait, Keely Hodgkinson is going to run 49.4-49.8 for 400m? Keely Hodgkinson the Olympic 800m champion?
She is Capable, Some people have Done it, be good at 400 and 800, Mal Whitfield, Alberto Juantorena, Ana Fidel Quirot, Athing Mu when she was running great, and more my guess is lots could, but most 400 runners who are very good don't want to train for the 800, if a USA 400 Runner trains for the 800 they go from knowing they are great at 400, but 800 is unknown also Running the 800 reduces the Chances of being in the 4 x 400 a certain Gold Medal for USA Most Years, Though Botswana will be tough They Won Worlds with Young Runners and have 7-8 good 400 Runners in the Men, Women Even without Sydney McLaughlin an Isabella Whittaker this year will likely win the ultimate track meet 4 x 400
So your contention is that Femke is a 48.1 second outdoor 400m runner? She ran like 47.9 in a 4x400 (so maybe just less than 400m + with a flying start) The fantasy world of "if's" some of you live in are remarkable.
What's your point? You know 47.9 is one the fastest splits ever? The fastest split ever is 47.6. Sydney's fastest split is 47.7
Allyson Felix' best 4x4 split is also 47. Wanna guess her 400M block start PB? I'll help you... it ain't sub 49.