This thread initially had the title of: "Much too early Boston Marathon forecast". We have an article on the weather forecast here: https://www.letsrun.com/news/2...
I think WSW is the perfect Boston tailwind direction. I'm seeing WNW. Should be slightly helping or cross wind if that holds. Still, degrees at the start, with almost no change by the finish, is going to make this one of the faster Boston's in a while for the masses. Rare Boston day where you can set out at what you trained for.
All the sudden my 7:23 buffer for 2027 turns into a tighter squeeze
It shouldn't surprise me at this point but it's amazing how many people use Boston for their BQ, so a fast day doesn't help those on the cusp like yourself. We're going to see a ebb in the running craze and the number of people looking to run Boston specifically, but it seems we're still a year or two out from that.
One other thing about the forecast, not to get everyone too excited, but with the low pressure system still clearing out on Monday morning, it should stay overcast. Which for a race with a helping wind is great. Running midday with bright sun with essentially stagnant air can be tough even with cool temps.
I think WSW is the perfect Boston tailwind direction. I'm seeing WNW. Should be slightly helping or cross wind if that holds. Still, degrees at the start, with almost no change by the finish, is going to make this one of the faster Boston's in a while for the masses. Rare Boston day where you can set out at what you trained for.
Obviously you've never sailed before. WSW and WNW are essentially the same. I have a map of the Boston course that lays it out. When I get a chance I'll post it.
Five days out and still looking fast. The precip chance is (currently) early morning and then drying out. 40's throughout the morning. If the front on Sunday slows down it could be much wetter for the race.
"A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%."
All the sudden my 7:23 buffer for 2027 turns into a tighter squeeze
It shouldn't surprise me at this point but it's amazing how many people use Boston for their BQ, so a fast day doesn't help those on the cusp like yourself. We're going to see a ebb in the running craze and the number of people looking to run Boston specifically, but it seems we're still a year or two out from that.
One other thing about the forecast, not to get everyone too excited, but with the low pressure system still clearing out on Monday morning, it should stay overcast. Which for a race with a helping wind is great. Running midday with bright sun with essentially stagnant air can be tough even with cool temps.
Out of the 21 time's I raced Boston I think I requalified at Boston maybe 15 times.
All the sudden my 7:23 buffer for 2027 turns into a tighter squeeze
The BAA website has a nice history of statistics for 'non-qualifiers' by number of entrants denied and BQ-margin by year on their site. For this year the margin was 4:34 and 8887 runners were rejected. The highest was 2021 Covid reduced field at 7:47 and 9215 were denied.
It's about time. The number of extreme downhill courses has exploded the past few years. People complain about super shoes being "cheating," but I think courses like St. George are the real cheating.