If Grant's 2028 LA goals involve the 5000/10000, would he really run a marathon in the fall of 2027 given the training/racing load on his body? Versus waiting until fall 2028? Unless he wants to dabble in the marathon to see if it's a viable alternative for LA.
It sure sounds like this race and a 2027 redux (?) might be part of the evaluation of which event he picks in 2028. Running a marathon at the Olympics on home soil is hugely appealing.
If the dude can't beat the Africans on the track, why do you think he'll suddenly be a contender on the road? He is not winning a gold in LA. Let that sink in.
This board is sickeningly US biased. The blinkers are embarrassing
If the dude can't beat the Africans on the track, why do you think he'll suddenly be a contender on the road? He is not winning a gold in LA. Let that sink in.
This board is sickeningly US biased. The blinkers are embarrassing
He got 3rd in two events at the Paris Olympics beating the best (or 2nd-best) road racer at the moment (Kiplimo) in the 10,000m. He's beaten Kejelcha before, and as we've seen with Cheptegei track and road performance aren't 100% transferable (he could be better in road races, or he could be relatively worse).
Marathons, especially unpaced ones or hot-weather ones, can be very unpredictable. It is unlikely for anyone to win gold in the Olympic Marathon, but I'd say silver or bronze would be a lofty but not impossible goal. Galen Rupp of course has Olympic bronze. If Fisher runs well here and in next year's spring Half, he absolutely should dream of being a contender in LA. Of course, winning a gold in any event is a long shot. The 5,000 and 10,000 seem more viable at the moment, but if he looks comfortable out their Sunday I wouldn't dismiss his chances at all. So far, he's been a durable athlete and I think he has a very good brain for the marathon. He's the type of guy that I could see conserving energy really well, and finishing quite strong while others falter the more tricky a race gets.
Insane take. If you are 2 spots away from gold in 2 track events, you cannot say his best chance of gold is in a road event he has never competed in. He might be horrible at the marathon and struggle to break 2:08. We just don't know.
Yup, it's insanely difficult to be top 3. It's doubtful he'll ever win gold in any event, and would be a massive accomplishment to win any medal again. But since the track events are more of a young-man's game and comes down to final kicks (his kick was never his strength and just in Paris was able to kick effectively for Bronze), he may soon need the longer distance of the marathon to win a medal, and that's only if he can translate to the marathon like Mantz does. Grant is faster than Mantz in 10k (by quite a bit) if he is similarly faster in the marathon and still has sub 13 5k speed in his legs (unlike most marathon guys) he may actually be a medal threat in the marathon. Rupp had never run a marathon before 2016 and he won bronze in Rio.
Yeah sure, absolutely insane. I can say it and I'll end up being right, you won't. Grant will smoke the 1/2 marathon unless there is INSANELY bad weather. He is not winning gold in the 10,000. If you wanna bet, just let me know. His only chance is the marathon, period. He's not getting younger and quicker over the last 400, it is what it is....but you can think otherwise.
If Grant's 2028 LA goals involve the 5000/10000, would he really run a marathon in the fall of 2027 given the training/racing load on his body? Versus waiting until fall 2028? Unless he wants to dabble in the marathon to see if it's a viable alternative for LA.
It sure sounds like this race and a 2027 redux (?) might be part of the evaluation of which event he picks in 2028. Running a marathon at the Olympics on home soil is hugely appealing.
I said it over a month ago, Grant isn't stupid, nor is his coach Mike Scannell. Grant will be 31 years old in 2028, and he's well aware that his 5000m/10000m days over the next couple years will be waning. The fact that he's preparing now with a half marathon, thus setting up for a full marathon sometime prior to 2028 is nothing short of SMART. He can still rip 3k/5k/10k training now, as he's young enough to possibly PB in all three. After this summer, you're going to see a slow progression toward marathon work, which will set him up nicely for the L.A. 2028 Olympic Marathon. Given his foundation over the past years of the Mile and 3000m speed endurance, combined with the strength endurance of his 5k/10k, he's gonna be a medal contender in the 2028 L.A. Olympic Marathon.
I don’t think he makes 5K for LA 2028. Too many younger dudes with better kicks. He should skip indoors next year and find a thon, go for OQ, run the Ten, shoot for 5K10K teams at worlds. 2028 try to make Marathon team, run one or two tune up races and try to make the 10K team.
best case scenario, he pulls a Rupp in Rio. Medal contention in Marathon, top 10 in 10K. Next year is likely his next podium shot in the 10, to be honest I think his best shot at gold was in Paris. Perfect season and race execution, just got beaten by arguably 10K GOAT and Aregawi.
>Now using the AmazFit armband heart rate monitor rather than a chest monitor which he called "invasive."
would be interested to hear him elaborate on this
Fairly certain he is just parroting what the brand told him to say. Tell enough runners that a chest strap is uncomfortable and some will begin to believe it. Coros likes to push the same story for their armband. If an armband worked as well as a chest strap, that would be one thing, but it's the exact same optical technology as the watch HRM, it just happens to be placed in a slightly better location for sensing blood flow.
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-- Made no mention of running USAs in August or racing a 10,000 this year -- although has hasn't said he wouldn't . . .
Updates: USAs is July 23 - 26 @ Icahn Stadium in NYC where, per today's RRW article, Grant will be competing. No mention of which event(s) -- but would not be surprised to see Grant race his only 10,000 of the year at this meet.
If there's a chance, ask Grant how he's felt during this final tapering week after putting in at least four weeks of running 105 to 115 miles each.
On it, good call.
Hey Noah, thx for the interview!
I think you used virtually the same words above to ask Grant about this taper week. Happy to have provided you the cue cards😉
A few details I picked up from your interview and today's RRW article:
-- Confirmed no more road races this year after Sunday's half.
-- At this time, believes he can train for both the track and half-marathon. In fact, believes his recent half training will help his track racing later this summer.
-- However -- and this may be a Big Reveal stated near the end of the YT interview -- Grant does not believe he can simultaneously train for both the track and marathon, stating he will have to make a choice when the time comes. Thus, suggesting if he makes the US marathon team as well as the track team in 2028, he will pick one or the other.
-- Sunday's race will only give Grant an internal feeling about road running - Is he competitive at it? How much does it hurt? Ultimately, is it even worthwhile pursuing while he's still in his prime as a track racer? -- and nothing more. Even going so far as stating "whether I'm 1st or 30th," it's how he feels about racing this longer road distance which will guide his future road racing decisions.
-- Most everyone is predicting the future for Grant as a marathoner -- except Grant himself. He has very carefully refused to commit to a marathon debut, only stating he eventually wants to race the distance and will be doing so at some point before his career draws to a close.
Well, just happy to learn Grant survived that 4-week block of heavy volume unscathed and is excited for what comes on Sunday/.
I said it over a month ago, Grant isn't stupid, nor is his coach Mike Scannell. Grant will be 31 years old in 2028, and he's well aware that his 5000m/10000m days over the next couple years will be waning. . .
Grant has never said that and you don't know that.
Worse, you are using definitive statements when discussing the future.
For, when future become past, you may find yourself stranded in the present . . . and being judged a blithering idiot.
>Now using the AmazFit armband heart rate monitor rather than a chest monitor which he called "invasive."
would be interested to hear him elaborate on this
Fairly certain he is just parroting what the brand told him to say. Tell enough runners that a chest strap is uncomfortable and some will begin to believe it. Coros likes to push the same story for their armband. If an armband worked as well as a chest strap, that would be one thing, but it's the exact same optical technology as the watch HRM, it just happens to be placed in a slightly better location for sensing blood flow.
Lots of runners, myself included, find a chest strap to be a little uncomfortable. Worn too tightly, it can also hinder breathing a bit (see the study on the impact of women's sports bras on respiratory mechanics of elite women runners...link below). I assume that's what Grant meant by "invasive."
As for optical sensor technology, it has been shown to work extremely well on the upper arm. Sometimes a bit laggy at the start of fast intervals, but great otherwise. Night and day better than wrist-based optical sensors in watches.
Elite female athletes are vulnerable to respiratory limitations, and sports bra tightness may contribute to this phenomenon. Since the underband is located over the diaphragmatic ribcage, its tightness may affect ribcage mech...
This is smart. You don't want to make the Mo Farah mistake -- committing full time to the marathon when you're 35 and starting to age out of the sport at whatever distance.
This is smart. You don't want to make the Mo Farah mistake -- committing full time to the marathon when you're 35 and starting to age out of the sport at whatever distance.
Indeed, Grant stated in an interview -- last year or earlier this -- he does not want to wait until age 35 before turning to the roads, winding down his career by chasing a few final paychecks.
However, if Grant waits until after the Olympics in 2029 to become a full-time roadie, he will still be 31 with at least the '32 Brisbane Olympic cycle ahead of him. And, he may very well have debuted in the marathon -- but just didn't race it in '28 LA.
Also, note what Grant told Noah in his pre-NYC Half interview on Thursday (3/12): he does not believe he can properly train for track races and the marathon at the same time.
Regardless of how well Sunday goes, if Grant kills it this summer; e.g. breaks 8 minutes in the Pre 2 Mile, runs close/under 12:40 and breaks the AR in his 5000 record attempt race, then places high or even wins the season-concluding Ultimate Challenge race, he may very well decide his near-term future is on the track, thus delaying his his road career until after LA.
As with many distance running fans, I'm very excited to see Grant run a half marathon Sunday. The course and weather often suppress the final times in NY, so I expect his final result to generate a lot of debate here, especially if he doesn't win. Regardless, can't wait to see what he does. It's always interesting when athletes as accomplished as Fisher move up in distance. He's clearly got a plan for Sunday, and for the rest of his career
I have to say this thread has been one of the most thoughtful, analytic-based discussions I've seen on LRC in a very long time. Fewer "he's a loser/doper/should retire" posts from the basement brigade. Very refreshing, so far.
Although it’s understandable to expect Grant to get slower over the next few years, and he turns 30 reasonably soon, nothing in his racing would suggest that slowdown has already started. So in my book there’s no reason to expect it over the next two years. The guy just broke the old world record in the 2K. He is still on an upswing. He’s getting faster. He clearly bit off more than he could chew last year, but he absolutely could’ve won gold had he played his cards a little differently in 2025. I wouldn’t count Grant out for gold silver or bronze in the 5000 or 10,000 in 2028. Today’s shoe and recovery technology is unlike anything we have ever seen before and I think careers will be extended because of that.
As with many distance running fans, I'm very excited to see Grant run a half marathon Sunday. The course and weather often suppress the final times in NY, so I expect his final result to generate a lot of debate here, especially if he doesn't win. Regardless, can't wait to see what he does. It's always interesting when athletes as accomplished as Fisher move up in distance. He's clearly got a plan for Sunday, and for the rest of his career
I have to say this thread has been one of the most thoughtful, analytic-based discussions I've seen on LRC in a very long time. Fewer "he's a loser/doper/should retire" posts from the basement brigade. Very refreshing, so far.
Conditions do look good, if the race was Saturday there're mid-teens winds, but on Sunday it's mild ones. On the pace, I do wonder, but I think we are talking about whether it goes 59-flat or just under 60-flat. Grant's thought is it'll get out quick on the downhill early section. From there, guys like Abel Kipchumba and Daniel Ebenyo enjoy pushing the pace and breaking the field. It's also hard to to put the toothpaste back in the tube in a half especially if it's mostly flat in the middle.
Grant's evaluating by feel on the outcome but here's how I look at it:
1) Does he look comfortable in the pack early? 2) Can he handle inevitable pace changes? Note that this doesn't mean mimicking every move like Conner Mantz might, though that'd be OK. But if he's able to run his own race and catch back up that is another way of doing things and also effective. 3) Does he finish with command the last mile-plus? It's OK if Ebenyo/Kipchumba has a great race and blasts some sub-4:30s at the end. These guys might just be more prepared/seasoned. I'd only find it discouraging if Fisher is fading towards the end and getting caught by the second-tier dudes.
This post was edited 25 seconds after it was posted.
I think you used virtually the same words above to ask Grant about this taper week. Happy to have provided you the cue cards😉
A few details I picked up from your interview and today's RRW article:
-- Confirmed no more road races this year after Sunday's half.
-- At this time, believes he can train for both the track and half-marathon. In fact, believes his recent half training will help his track racing later this summer.
-- However -- and this may be a Big Reveal stated near the end of the YT interview -- Grant does not believe he can simultaneously train for both the track and marathon, stating he will have to make a choice when the time comes. Thus, suggesting if he makes the US marathon team as well as the track team in 2028, he will pick one or the other.
-- Sunday's race will only give Grant an internal feeling about road running - Is he competitive at it? How much does it hurt? Ultimately, is it even worthwhile pursuing while he's still in his prime as a track racer? -- and nothing more. Even going so far as stating "whether I'm 1st or 30th," it's how he feels about racing this longer road distance which will guide his future road racing decisions.
-- Most everyone is predicting the future for Grant as a marathoner -- except Grant himself. He has very carefully refused to commit to a marathon debut, only stating he eventually wants to race the distance and will be doing so at some point before his career draws to a close.
Well, just happy to learn Grant survived that 4-week block of heavy volume unscathed and is excited for what comes on Sunday/.
Sure thing and thanks for teeing up a pertinent Q. I do regret not getting him to elaborate on how the taper was different though it's pretty easy to speculate the main difference is the last pre-meet workout isn't the usual variety for track (light threshold, long strides with full recovery) and more suited for the HM (sub-threshold, maybe some 400s at 10K effort).
What I kind of love about Grant's approach to this is it seems he's open to the possibility he might "suck" on the roads. OK that's tongue-in-cheek, obviously he's going to be at least respectable. But there is a chance, he just doesn't translate great. We'd probably feel way that if he finishes 8th or worse behind some Americans/international guys he could easily beat in a track 10K. Or if he's something like 90 seconds or more off the win. If that happens, I think he might just think you know what let's try again (perhaps no pneumonia in 2027), but the LA marathon thought is probably not for me. 2030 then might be the appropriate time to commit to a full training overhaul and see if it sticks.
While one is a small sample size, I think this race will weigh heavily on his thinking based on what he's said. He's going to get the feedback of "there's something there" or "this might not be my lane"
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Yup, it's insanely difficult to be top 3. It's doubtful he'll ever win gold in any event, and would be a massive accomplishment to win any medal again. But since the track events are more of a young-man's game and comes down to final kicks (his kick was never his strength and just in Paris was able to kick effectively for Bronze), he may soon need the longer distance of the marathon to win a medal, and that's only if he can translate to the marathon like Mantz does. Grant is faster than Mantz in 10k (by quite a bit) if he is similarly faster in the marathon and still has sub 13 5k speed in his legs (unlike most marathon guys) he may actually be a medal threat in the marathon. Rupp had never run a marathon before 2016 and he won bronze in Rio.
Yeah sure, absolutely insane. I can say it and I'll end up being right, you won't. Grant will smoke the 1/2 marathon unless there is INSANELY bad weather. He is not winning gold in the 10,000. If you wanna bet, just let me know. His only chance is the marathon, period. He's not getting younger and quicker over the last 400, it is what it is....but you can think otherwise.
This times a million. The poster is right, Fisher is not getting gold in the 10,000 at this point in his career.
Grant will end up running the marathon trials in St. Louis or Phoenix in March of 2028.
He'll get top 3, then will battle in LA. on July 30th, 2028. Like Rupp was a sure thing in Atlanta, Fisher will be a sure thing in the 2028 trials. I was in Atlanta. Rupp pulled away easily that day.
This is Letsrun where many really don't run.
Fisher is running the marathon trials 2 years from now. The marathon is unpredictable but his chances are better to get gold over 26.2 miles versus 6.2.
