4:25---> sub 4:15 mile. Is this possible?

you're d3 by about every measure, except you could maybe make some patriot league or other d1 backmarker. maybe some d3s are still open for applications. that's the route i would go. save yourself this "10 seconds or i don't run varsity" insanity. you're good enough. just go where you currently belong. or you don't actually run varsity. some kids will fight it into this spring. some will fight it into college and go to someplace they are too slow and think they will do it off the club team. unless you're a fraction of a second shy, it's denial. go where you are wanted. endless d3s 53/200/425 are wanted.

i mean, does a kid with a 1000 SAT apply to yale? no. bend to reality.

second point, anything could happen. you could run slower. you could run the same. you could run faster. you seem to want the attaboy before you do the new number. this is not how track works. personally way i rolled, a "PR" at all suffices. i am faster than yesterday. and if i wave a distance carrot in front of me, it's not more than 5 seconds. that should be doable. you then have a fun season achieving a doable goal, which can be repeated for a second 5, or a third 5, etc. 10-15 secs are tougher in 1 season, and potentially set up an obnoxious situation wher you improve 7 seconds but are miserable because you didn't make either your harsh goal or the minimum recruiting standard at a college -- that you weren't really meant to run for. voila, you just turned improvement and fun into depression.

and if you feel like you f*cked up recruiting and applying, take a gap year and do a mulligan, then go to a school that recruits people PRECISELY YOUR SPEED.

Junk miles (doubles) are a net positive long term, but a steady increase in quality mileage (painfully slow singles) will probably have better short and long term effects. Malmo's jump in mileage from junior to senior year shows good results, but the outlier of his junior mile time aside, a less radical increase might have yielded the same...

I don't want to make it out to sound like I haven't done any race specific work yet at all. While most of my training is easy runs and tempo work, I did do 5 race specific sessions going into the race, and raced 4 weeks earlier where I opened in 4:30. So while I'm not totally sharp it's not like I haven't touched race pace at all.

i see it as denial.

in my day, we couldn't even tell what the different levels expected. short of nationals we had no idea what collegians ran. so i called coaches where i was interested in, and figured out from the feedback d3 is where i belonged and got most of my positive responses. you have to find your spot. you don't find it ignoring the feedback.

i could have used a sit down with the track coach who then explained what times got you where. we got nothing. i think they were only interested in the recruitment of the ones making state.

what i see as worse today is kids have endless information and should know better. i didn't know the needed numbers. they do. you can look at online meet results, TFRRS, performance lists, official recruitment standards, unofficial recruiting aids.

the irony is i figured out after the fact i could have run backend d1. beat my share of d1 walkons in my meets back then. but i didn't know, but kind of intuited where i'd fit in.

like this is no research, no intuition. like in my current state. if i call UT and A&M, no. ok, drop down and try UTEP, still no. ok, maybe west texas a&m or UT-D. no. at which point someone not freaking out or dreaming too hard should figure out, ok, i guess it's trinity, austin college, hardin simmons, southwestern.

but you have to sit down the self righteous, do your research, and actually adjust for feedback. it's a lot less defensible because all the information is there. you can go TFRRS and see every time they ran in your event this year, last year, 2 years ago. ok, i won't make that team.

and then recruiting is not made just for you. they need a team. they need it by a timeframe. unless they tell you (a) you're on or (b) to apply and chase some goal time to walk on, it's a no. you move on and maybe re-aim your sights. it's like a whole chunk of kids refuses to re-aim. entitlement or something. running for UC santa cruz or chicago or swarthmore is not hell on earth. it's pretty nice.

I think your kind of missing the point of the post. This is more of a personal developmental goal that I have in mind more so than running for a particular college. If I don't end up running for a college I will still end up running. Theres lot's of opportunities to race unattached during the indoors season where I live. And the goal isn't for this year. I highly doubt personally where my training is at right now that I'll drop to 4:15 this season. I'd actually place a bet that I don't. The question was is it possible in the future, whether it be 1 year, 2 years, etc.

look, this is nice and all, and might hint you will have a fun season, but you still have to run the races to get that done, and there's little sense in backpatting you before that.

and in terms of the goal structure and college recruiting, you're going about it all wrong. goal structure, reasonable goals that you can reset. college recruiting, start with teams that recruit your current times, and work outwards, or adjust as you actually get the new times in meets. they don't want unverifiable practice splits, guesswork what training hints at. they want verifiable times that will be posted on race results websites, reflecting you can do the time they need and handle a race without cracking up.

the reality is senior spring TF times don't affect recruiting much. a lot of applying is already done. if people needed help or not the coach already decided whether to give it. the anticipated team may be full or close to it. even in your dream sequence, you don't get to just come in at the end and say, i got your time, i demand your spot. it may be gone. he may have 5 other kids in mind with your time or better. it's not a qualifying time, it's an estimate of where his recruiting interest would start -- within the recruiting timeframe.

i don't buy it. i think you're kidding us and yourself. an earlier post was like, i need 10 seconds for this school. you want it. you just don't want to be tied down to that if it doesn't happen. "yeah, i was cool training every day like a varsity guy, then running unattached for 4 years, hoping i eventually got the 10 seconds." "why 10 seconds?" (happens to be what the college wants)

if you really want it, find a school that takes your current time.

and, to be blunt, re "personal development," you will get that best in a structured college team environment. it's less likely you get your theoretical wish training on the side by yourself.

and it's just, to me, absurd to put in that work, have the goals of someone doing it officially, the work rate of it, then not get the friday or saturday meets out of it.

to be clear, no, your occasional drive to a local meet to run unattached is not an approximation of flying to meets or running conference or nationals.

You have never seen my logs. You have no effing idea what you're talking about. I can guarantee your junk mileage has in no way resembled the the level of mine. I've never run junk mileage in my life.

try it.

If the OP is making his college choice based on his running times, then he is neither a student nor a college level athlete, so it really doesn't matter.

53-54/2:02/4:25 says you’ve about maxed out your speed reserve, which means your aerobic base build has been a big success. Talk about running the 400 and or 800 at early season dual meets with your coach, and make sure to stay focused and purposeful during any kind of speed development work, whether that’s strides after an easy run, 800m pace work, hill sprints, your skips during warmups, weight room work etc.

If you get that 400m down to 51.x which is totally realistic that’ll open you up to as fast as 1:54-1:56 in the 800m and the 4:15 you want in the mile.

You’re in a very good spot coming into the season, keep yourself healthy, focus on nutrition, and be patient.

A strong JUCO would also be a great option. There’s JUCOs that have sub 4:00 milers and 4:30+ milers and everything in between on the same team. I cant think of a better place to be for someone running in the 4:10s or 4:20s with lots of potential upswing.

It doesn't say anything about anything. It's just a measure of where he is now. Given it doesn't appear that he's making a serious effort just yet, who knows what the future will bring. It's all up to him. Good luck, let us know how you do?

Sure it does, people don’t typically run much faster than 2:00 without 54 or faster speed, and people don’t typically run much faster than 4:25 without sub 2:00 speed. This points to speed being the limiting factor here, and also points to OP getting as much as they are going to get out of their aerobic work with where their current speed and anaerobic endurance sits. When those 3 times line up (wagering a 3200m in the 9:30-9:40 range as well, lmk OP) it paints a very vivid picture of the athlete and their current fitness.

Training for and running a 54 second 400m by no means guarantees you will run anywhere near 2:00 flat for 800m, but training for and running around 2:00 flat for 800m carries a HUGE chance your current 400m ability sits in the 53-54 range.

OP probably needs to improve on that 800m in order to get to 4:15, and OP probably needs to improve on that 400m to get that 800m down. No amount of mileage increase or threshold work is going to create that breakthrough, because if there was big room for race specific aerobic growth there would be a lapse in the efficiency of times I.E. 51.5 2:06 4:52 10:55 instead of the 54-2:00-4:25 he’s claiming.

Plenty of people are giving very perplexing answers, I'll keep it short and say yes it's possible.

Things can always get in the way of reaching that mark but in theory if everything goes right there's no reason given your training history that you shouldn't be able to hit sub 4:15 with optimal training.

For actual advice, I'd say you don't really need that much mileage to run a good mile, an increase to 60 mpw probably won't hurt and an increase to 70 isn't necessary for a mid distance event. Go to 60 mpw while also incorporating some sprint work to get that 400 time down while also increasing your endurance.

Ill keep you in the loop

As for 3200 im not sure, I havent ran one. Last year when I ran 4:31 tho, my 3200 was 10:07, and I was completely spent after that race.

I went from 4:29 to 4:15 in one year from my Freshmen year in college to Sophmore year.

When wrong why not double down on it? The OP is plenty fast enough for 4:10/1:55 results.