Has Nico Young surpassed Grant Fisher?

No.

and

I'll admit the thought seems kind of crazy. But I honestly think sometimes, we lose the "can't see the forest for the trees". And it just hit me in the middle of the podcast.

Are we totally missing the big picture here because of Grant's two medals?

Last year, Young beat Fisher in both the 5000 and 10,000 at Worlds.

He also beat Fisher in the 10,000 at USAs. Young also won a Diamond League 5000 something Fisher has never done in his entire career.

Huge edge Nico on outdoor track results. Hell Nico also won a GST 3000 - something Fisher didn't do all year either (admittedly he jogged 1 of the 2 he ran).

Nico is 23. Grant is 28.

Another edge nico.

The assumption all in our heads is to think, "Grant won 2 Olympic medals in 2025, he was perfectly lined up with 125 meters to go last year at Worlds to win the 10,000, but just was a little off in his peak maybe because of GST."

Yes that's true. But go back and watch the tape. Who also was perfectly lined up with 125m to go in that 10,000? Nico and he kicked by Grant. See it for yourself.

So was Grant just a little off in his peak in 2025? Or did he peak on the track in 2024
at age 27, benefitting in the perfect year from the new stimulus of a coaching change, and now a little bit past his track peak?

We will find out. Perhaps the half-marathon training spurs Grant to new heights much like Paula R found her peak once moving to the marathon. Or is it - Wow both of these guys are incredibly good but Nico is still going up whereas Fisher just reached the top of the hill and is now starting to slide down the back nine a bit.

I don't think it's crazy to suggest that Nico might be better at this point. It's pretty close. They've beaten each other in head to head matchups the past year (e.g. USAs) and their 5000 times are pretty close. Nico did perform better than Grant at the last world champs.

Of course Grant has had the better career overall up to this point, but I don't think anyone paying attention would be stunned if Nico has more success than Grant going forward.

I think Rojo's argument is a fair one. I do think GST threw off Fisher's peak substantially though. The 2000m off limited prep shows how good Fisher is. I'd still favor Fisher in a fast 10,000 championship or a paced time trial (like Paris or the Ten). In a circuit 5,000 finishing under 12:50, it's probably a wash. In a slower championship one (13:05+) I'd roll with Nico. In a faster one, again a toss-up.

The 2000 result is overrated (both for Fisher and Kessler). The outdoor world record is 4:43, while the new one is 4:48.79 (with Fisher 4:49), so nearly 6 seconds off of the outdoor world record. You multiply the difference by 4/5 to compare it as if it were 4 laps instead, and you get a 4.6 second difference, or 4.8 for Fisher. 3:43+4.6 = 3:47.6 which just isn't that crazy of a result for either Fisher (since the extra lap is more favorable for him as a distance guy) nor Kessler.

Another way to think of it is shown in this picture.

Open image

It may be true that Grant is still a tiny bit ahead of Nico right now, but if he's on the way down and there is no Worlds in 2026, who are you picking for 2027 and 2028?

Post of the year. Made me laugh so hard.

Have we met in person? I need to buy you a beer.

Time to take this to the 'crete, half and full Mary...That settles it.

We weren't talking about 2024. That was 2 years ago. We weren't talking about career accomplishments.

I'm actually mainly thinking about 2027 and 2028. As I said, I may be a tiny bit ahead of the curve but it's wild to think about. A guy who won two Olympic medals and then broke 2 indoor WRs at the start of last year may already be surpassed in America by another guy for track prowess. Crazy.

Grant's Olympic medals were amazing. So were the indoor WRs at the start of the last year. But look at what Nico did outdoors. Outdoor 5000 AR and DL win, beat Grant in both races at Worlds.

I think Fisher's 2k is getting overlooked by Rojo. Part of the excitement for Nico is his recent 3:48 mile, yet Fisher's 2k was just as good (if not slightly better), and it suggests that Fisher could have run a great time in the Millrose 2-mile if he hadn't gotten sick.

There's a big missing data point here because we don't know what Fisher would have done at Millrose.

Nico did beat him in 1/2 events a USAs and both at the Olympics last year. I think it's fair to wonder if Grant is past his prime and Nico entering it.

This would be a great discussion except for the fact that in 6 months it will be Parker Wolfe.

Not really, Fisher's 2k indicated he was in 3:48 shape, where as Nico's mile with his close (in lane 2) indicates 3:46.5-3:47 shape.

We haven’t met. But you sent me that ridiculous Hoka hat last year when you were giving away stuff for free. It’s been fantastic with all the snow we have gotten in Boston this year. Have gotten many compliments. I am also the guy who went on a barstool podcast a couple years ago wearing the letsrun shirt :)

If Nico clutched up at World XC and brought home a medal or like a top 5 finish or something similar, I'd think it would be fair to put some thought to this.

For now, Grant has the hardware and that's enough to put him up top

Jonathan Gault surpassed the Brojos a long time ago.

I think it's a tad overrated for Kessler (though most were impressed by his kick and surge), not Fisher. Being able to run a 3:47.6 (round down to 3:48.0-5 if you want for the beneficial extra 400) off of limited training just shows how speedy and talented Grant is. To me it was again like the 7:22 from last year, and just validation that the guy from last year's indoors is there. He got outdoor champs slightly wrong, but he was primed to be at his best ever level and I think GST kinda messed with the training. He ran his 12:44 at BU that was much like Almgren's 12:44 DL win. I think the Paris/2025 indoors Grant form is going to be back, and it matches well enough with Nico. I think the 2025 outdoor champs form was a blip.

I don't think so. A 3:46.5 would be faster than what Nuguse and Kessler have ever run indoors.

I just re-watched Nico's Wanamaker mile. It was a great setup for him. He didn't have to do any leading like Fisher did in the 2k. He ran in the back along the rail for most of it, and his last lap wasn't all in lane 2. He was on the rail on the penultimate curve.

Nico's 100m splits from 1200m to 1600m went 14.44-14.09-13.71-13.42. While acknowledging the difference between indoors and outdoors, compare Nico's close to Fisher's corresponding splits in the Bowerman mile, where he ran 3:48 while similarly navigating around traffic at the end: 14.1-13.9-13.5-13.3.

I suspect this conversation would be different if Fisher was healthy for Millrose. As things stand now, they are both tremendous runners, and I'm excited to see how the next few years go for them.

Yes, Rojo’s take is defensible, it just seems click-baity and disrespectful to Fisher the way this thread is framed.

Fisher’s defining achievement (double Olympic bronze) is better than anything Young’s done yet; his PRs at mile, 3k, 5k and 10k are faster than Young’s; if they both retired today Fisher’s career would be miles better; and Fisher’s medals and PRs are recent enough that there’s no convincing evidence he’s on a decline.

That said, Young has had the better results in the last 12 months—and I mean exactly 12 months, because if you allow Fisher’s 7:22 & 12:44 from last indoor season to factor then it becomes a lot less clear. In a way (as in, I’d rather win an Olympic bronze, but) I think Young’s win in 12:45 in the Oslo DL is the best race either of them have ever put up—and he was still 22 at the time. While Fisher has developed a highly respectable kick, Young has on occasion showed an elite gear that could seriously win a gold medal. Assuming good health and peakish form, Young is going to be tough for Fisher to beat on the track moving forward.